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I've been trading part time for 20 years working to develop a strategy that allows me to focus on my day job while investing for today and my retirement. I've been heavily influenced by Mebane Faber's book The Ivy Portfolio. I do not follow Faber's technique directly, but have developed my own... More
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  • Weekly SP-500 Trend Commentary 0 comments
    Apr 7, 2012 2:49 PM | about stocks: SPY

    *** Status: Market Cautiously Bullish - Sector Funds ***

    Not much changed this week with the SP-500 relatively flat for the week with recording a small loss of 0.4%. The Market indicates caution at this point, since the broad market indicies have not moved higher in the last few weeks. The general market trading filter I use (SP-500 53 day CCI) is now at +80 indicating Market Up which is down from +112 last week. My multiple composite SP-500 indicators on the daily chart are both bullish, with the Blau Ergodic Composite Indicator bullish and the MACD composite bullish. The SP-500 index is now above by 1.8% from the recent May 2011 high of 1370. The CCI indicators at the right give a good indication of the market. At this time we see the Russell about to turn negative, while JNK and IEF are negative.

    The Guppy Plot for the SP-500 Index is Bullish, but currently with a dip in the average slope of the Fast Moving Averages. The Fast Moving Averages are above the Slow Moving Averages. The average slope of the Fast Moving Averages has now turned negative and the average slope of the Slow Moving Averages remains positive.The ADX components are bullish but maybe trending to a cross over, and the Stoch is moving down. This may be a pause before moving higher, or the initial signals of a significant down move.

    We'll see what the next week brings. We don't try to forecast the market here, rather we just monitor the current conditions and react accordingly. I hope you find this blog helpful. If you do, why not leave a comment.


    This week's Rankings are showing Sector Funds at the top which indicates a bullish market, but some bond funds are rising in the ranking so caution is needed. Ranking scores are color coded to indicate positive ranking scores (rate of change / volatility) in green, and negative ranking scores in red. Overall the list is sorted by overall rank but the score that makes up the rank can be positive or negative depending on the recent rate of change. The full list of the funds that are ranked can be found under the Funds tab. Current Rankings of the Funds can be found under the Rankings tab.

    What Others are Saying (all free sites): Overall Mixed - Bullish

    AAII Sentiment: 38% Bullish / 34% Neutral / 28% Bearish

    Investors Intelligence: 53% Bullish / 22% Bearish

    Barchart: 32% Buy (last week 88% Buy)

    Best Stock Market Trading: Downtrend

    Bulkowski: Bearish (CPI= 20% - last week 32%)

    Buy-Don't Hold: Sell (1)

    Consensus Traders: 55% Bullish / 24% Neutral / 21% Bearish (NYSEARCA:SPY)

    MarketClub: Buy (SPY - see Scott's Investments)

    MTR Investors Market Timing Model: Market Up

    MyPlanIQ Trend Score: +8.03% (SPY +9.17% last week)

    10 DMA New High - New Low Ratio: Bullish (see Chris Perruna for explanation)

    Nasdaq New High - New Low Cumulative: Bullish (see recent post)

    NYSE New High - New Low Cumulative: Bullish (see recent post)

    US Stock New High - New Low Cumulative: Bullish (see recent post)

    Pattern Trapper: Bearish (SPY)

    SP-100: Bullish (see

    SP-500 Weekly MACD: Bullish (see StockCharts)

    Stock TA (SPY): Bullish

    Stock Trends: Bullish

    TimelySetup: Bullish

    Wishing Wealth: Market Up (GMI = 5/6)

    TheWizard: Very Bullish (SP-500 Long Term Signal) Invested (Note - monthly SP-500 10-EMA signal)

    Click on Charts to Enlarge

    SP-500 Daily Chart for April 7, 2012
    SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart for April 7, 2012
    Stocks: SPY
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