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Rogue began his career with Merrill Lynch in 1986. He became an independent advisor in 1993, writing his first client market letter in 1994.
  • Presidents, Fed Chairman & Volume 0 comments
    Aug 9, 2010 9:49 PM | about stocks: DIA

     

    Politics and markets always make interesting discussions. No
    matter whom the president was the market went up and down.
    Politians have a vested interest in seeing the stock market go
    up. It makes voters happy, increases tax revenue, reduces
    governmental (thereby taxpayers) contributions to government
    pension plans, etc.
    The second year tally for the DJIA has been up 5 out of 7
    times since 1980. We don’t know how this year will end yet.
    The Carter (1978-1980) and Bush (1989-1992) one term
    presidencies both had negative second year returns.
    Presidential Cycles:

    Interest Rates:
    The three Federal Reserve chairman since 1980 have had
    remarkably different trends during each of their terms in office.
    Volker had very high double digit interest rates both short and
    long term. Greenspan oversaw the long term (19 years)
    decline of both short and long term interest rates. Bernanke’s
    tenure has seen a dramatic rise and then fall in short term
    interest rates.
     
    The 30 year treasury rate divided by the 90 day treasury rate is
    high at 28.62
     
    The panic produced tremendous strains on this relationship
    sending the quotient way into the hundreds. Since 2008 both
    short and long term rates have set record lows.

    Volume:
    “BIDS Trading, the alternative trading system (ATS), has set a
    new record for quarterly average daily volume traded. The
    dark pool traded over 44 million shares per day in Q2 2010.
    This marks the third quarter in a row that BIDS Trading has
    reported record quarterly volumes. BIDS Trading’s Q2 volumes
    increased 56 percent from its previous quarterly volume of 28
    million shares per day and increased 118 percent year-overyear,
    according to the company.”
    Advance Trading
    “By some estimates, algorithms now trigger 70 percent of all
    trades in U.S. equities. The speed and volume of everyday
    trading have propelled the market into a new and esoteric
    dimension, and rendered traders in the pits largely obsolete.
    Average daily share volume on the New York Stock Exchange
    increased by 181 percent between 2005 and 2009, while the
    time required to execute a trade on its electronic systems
    dropped to 650 microseconds.”
    Monsters in the Market, theAtlantic, July/August 2010






    Disclosure: No Postions

    Disclosure: No Positions
    Themes: Market, Rates, Politics Stocks: DIA
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