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mirkotoscano
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CFA member. In this blog I put my thoughts. Work in an Italian bank in a strategist position (forex and commodities), but my true passion is the stock market.
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Mirko Toscano - market view and trading signals
  • Alert Gold - Close To Buy Signal On Stock Market 1 comment
    Dec 1, 2012 6:41 AM

    I begin this post with an alert on gold. As you know, I 'm quite optimistic about the future of gold within 2-3 years and I thought it was good to begin buying it again few days ago....

    BUT

    this week a signal that I monitored and never had a false signal since 2008 gave me a sell.

    It doesn't signal that bull market is over, only that within 3-4 weeks a deep correction is highly likely, therefore I'd be cautious now (and on silver too).

    Demark could give a 13TDbuy signal next week but probably I wont' follow it. I'm waiting for lower levels or for my indicator deleting the sell signal.

    On the GLD, support level to monitor are around 160 and 150. I assign a 70% probability that 160 will be test and 35% for the 150 level.

    (click to enlarge)GLD

    About general market, last week market reacted well. Even if volume were light (and i was quite negative..) , last Wednesday market had a reversal after Obama words. This means that buyers are still here (and not disappeared), waiting for a motive to buy.

    Among stocks, I like Mastercard (MA), it's a nice leader. Ithink to open a call spread soon.

    To buy more broadly, I'd like to see more volumes coming in the market and improving breadth.

    (click to enlarge)S&P500

    (click to enlarge)nyse Bullish %

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in MA over the next 72 hours.

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    Good move this gold! ;)
    20 Dec 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
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Buy list analysis, call spread CAT, cat, close out the long on Alcoa, closed GM, closed long Spy, closed short on QQQ, Euro Stoxx, General Market, general market, gold-and-precious-metals, I'm long DFS, long Alcoa and Caterpillar, Long Caterpillar and long Alcoa, long copper, long copper and Greece, long dfs, long GLD, Long GLD , Long JBL and short MSFT, Long JPM with call spread, long PM, long put on HPQ, Long put on QQQ , Long S P500, put selling, put spread on MRVL, rolled Caterpillar, short put on slv, short S P500, short S P500 (closed), snam, sold put on GM, Stop on JPM, stopped on JBL, Thinking about shorting SPY
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