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putcall ratio says: "no big rebound in next few days"

Jul. 28, 2011 6:34 AM ET2 Comments
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There're signs of distribution but we are still close to highs in the major indexes. The sideway is still here.
There will be a rebound soon or indexes will test the recent June's bottoms?

I monitor the moving average of total put-call ratio to understand if a possible bottom is near.
At the moment the moving average is raising and not at extreme levels.
Few days ago there was too much complacency in the market as you can see it was at levels of begin June and April. I put a red circle to show that when these extreme low levels were touched we had a short term top.

I am going to monitor the evolution of this index in coming days. If moving averages will continue to rise and start to build a top, I'll open some longs. But at the moment it shows that tensions could continue for other days and not a significant increase could be imminent.
Don't buy now because the probability of an imminent big rebound is low. Wait for moving average turning down and doing a top

total putcall ratio

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