mirkotoscano's  Instablog

Send Message
CFA member. In this blog I put my thoughts. Work in an Italian bank in a strategist position (forex and commodities), but my true passion is the stock market.
My blog:
Mirko Toscano - market view and trading signals
  • putcall ratio says: "no big rebound in next few days" 2 comments
    Jul 28, 2011 6:34 AM

    There're signs of distribution but we are still close to highs in the major indexes. The sideway is still here.
    There will be  a rebound soon or indexes will test the recent June's bottoms?

    I monitor the moving average of total put-call ratio  to understand if a possible bottom is near.
    At the moment the moving average is raising and not at extreme levels.
    Few days ago there was too much complacency in the market as you can see it was at levels of begin June and April. I put a red circle to show that when these extreme low levels were touched we had a short term top.

    I am going to monitor the evolution of this index in coming days. If moving averages will continue to rise and start to build a top, I'll open some longs. But at the moment it shows that tensions could continue for other days and not a significant increase could be imminent.
    Don't buy now because the probability of an imminent big rebound is low. Wait for moving average turning down and doing a top

    total putcall ratio

Back To mirkotoscano's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (2)
Track new comments
  • mirkotoscano
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » On Friday put/call ratio rose and the same happened to moving average. The m.a. slope is still up and the absolute level is below recent tops.
    I am going to monitor in next few days if it turns down and gives signal of imminent bottom. At the moment I don't catch the falling knife
    31 Jul 2011, 04:13 AM Reply Like
  • mirkotoscano
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » putcall m.a. continues to rise, but is reaching interesting levels. I wait for a turn down to call a short term bottom.
    3 Aug 2011, 04:51 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


  • Fed's minute could set a floor on recent US corp/treasury bond drop
    Feb 18, 2015
  • #SPX On $spx monitoring if 1972 level will hold. Below it,fasten your seat belt!
    Jan 30, 2015
  • January allocation (gov bonds 15-30years) is paying well :)
    Jan 13, 2015
More »

Latest Comments

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.