mirkotoscano's  Instablog

mirkotoscano
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CFA member. In this blog I put my thoughts. Work in an Italian bank in a strategist position (forex and commodities), but my true passion is the stock market.
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Mirko Toscano - market view and trading signals
  • putcall ratio says: "no big rebound in next few days" 2 comments
    Jul 28, 2011 6:34 AM

    There're signs of distribution but we are still close to highs in the major indexes. The sideway is still here.
    There will be  a rebound soon or indexes will test the recent June's bottoms?

    I monitor the moving average of total put-call ratio  to understand if a possible bottom is near.
    At the moment the moving average is raising and not at extreme levels.
    Few days ago there was too much complacency in the market as you can see it was at levels of begin June and April. I put a red circle to show that when these extreme low levels were touched we had a short term top.

    I am going to monitor the evolution of this index in coming days. If moving averages will continue to rise and start to build a top, I'll open some longs. But at the moment it shows that tensions could continue for other days and not a significant increase could be imminent.
    Don't buy now because the probability of an imminent big rebound is low. Wait for moving average turning down and doing a top

    total putcall ratio

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  • mirkotoscano
    , contributor
    Comments (103) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » On Friday put/call ratio rose and the same happened to moving average. The m.a. slope is still up and the absolute level is below recent tops.
    I am going to monitor in next few days if it turns down and gives signal of imminent bottom. At the moment I don't catch the falling knife
    31 Jul 2011, 04:13 AM Reply Like
  • mirkotoscano
    , contributor
    Comments (103) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » putcall m.a. continues to rise, but is reaching interesting levels. I wait for a turn down to call a short term bottom.
    3 Aug 2011, 04:51 AM Reply Like
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