mirkotoscano's  Instablog

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CFA member. In this blog I put my thoughts. Work in an Italian bank in a strategist position (forex and commodities), but my true passion is the stock market.
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Mirko Toscano - market view and trading signals
  • Bottom Attempt 2 ": FTD Vacancy 2 comments
    Jun 10, 2012 2:28 AM | about stocks: SPY, DFS, FEZ

    This week the market made a second attempt of bottom therefore we are now like 2 weeks ago: we are going to wait for a follow through (NASDAQ:FTD): a day with a rise of at least 1,5% in one of majors indexes, an increase in new 52 weeks highs and pretty high volumes.

    On June 6th market created a possible FTD like characteristics, unfortunately it came too soon therefore we need another FTD to appear this week to have a chance of a new up-leg in the market. If it doesn't and markets stay high..we could have another correction soon.

    But we are here waiting patiently our preferred signal. Watching the composition of leader stocks, numbers of stocks above 50% moving average and other indicators, the market looks in a better shape than 2 weeks ago.

    Maybe a base is building even if we could stay choppy for a while if FTD doesn't materialize.

    There are important events coming out shortly, all with the potential to move BIG the markets

    * news from Spain about an EU help to Spain (it came out this week end and details will come in the next days) with or without Imf intervention

    * Greek election next Sunday

    * FOMC on June 20th (Qe3 or not QE3?)

    * G20 leader meeting

    Let's see how it evolve the situation but for sure, if an FTD materialize, I'll try some longs on selective stocks. Otherwise I'll be sideline.

    I'm still long DFS and it's recovering, but needs market strength to go up and a nice earning report in coming weeks!

    This week I sold some puts on Enel, an Italian utility with a very high dividend (about 7% DY) that will be ex-record on June 18th. I bet that people will chase for it before that event and on Friday they did. Let's hope they continue because my strike price is @2.30 (Friday close was above 2.40 with huge volumes).

    There's also a Tom De Mark buy signal (13) on monthly basis on eurostoxx 500. you could try a long on FEZ after Greek election if euro doesn't blow up.

    And to end, I go a bit out. In Europe began European Soccer tournament 2012, let's hope Italy will do their best!!

    Disclosure: I am long DFS.

    Stocks: SPY, DFS, FEZ
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  • mirkotoscano
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Couldn't update this week end.
    Even if Investors.com and other websites set market in "confirmed uptrend" because of last week rise, I can't see a real FTD.
    Therefore I don't know, I don't trust this market and wait for the Fed to see if market will be "sell on news".
    Because market is discounting a QE3 I believe. If after FOMC I'll see a FTD, well, I give up and market is in uptrend. So far there's an high risk of reversal
    18 Jun 2012, 06:05 AM Reply Like
  • mirkotoscano
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » market didn't like FOMC. And FTD wasn't a good one if week close like this
    21 Jun 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
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