Seeking Alpha

MoneyGrowOnTrees'  Instablog

MoneyGrowOnTrees
Send Message
I am a student of the market. I have been investing for over 10 years. Here are some of my ideas over the years(both winners and losers) QCOM DLTR MOT ATVI BAC MSFT QEP STR Current Ideas: WPT ALGN POT
  • Prediction When the Economy Does Recover 0 comments
    Oct 8, 2010 2:39 PM
    FED is overly aggressive in trying to prop up the economy 10/08/2010.
    Currently the unemployment rate is 9.7%, growing gov't deficit.

    Highly inflationary risk once economic environment picks up, need to look at
    money velocity. Lesson: There could be a lot of money afloat but this does not matter unless people are taking the money to chase down goods(spend the money).

    FED is thinking about QE 2.0. Inflation will be good for commodities, such as oil and even gold.

    Why buy gold right now and why is it going to new highs?
    Assume gold will continue to be the safe-haven and inflation-hedge asset:

    Scenario 1: Economy continues to lag and stay weak.
    Flight to quality for gold will continue.

    Scenario 2: Economy picks up. Inflationary environment over 3% is probabilistic.
    Justification of gold prices, take historical gold prices and calculate the inflation over the years since that price, take inflation during this economic period to find Future Value.

    BOTH CASES: Long Gold
    Risks: People percieve Gold prices is speculative and the bubble will pop. Economic recovery might prompt people to pull money out of commodities investing into other forms of investments such as equity.
Back To MoneyGrowOnTrees' Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • QEP buy on the dip. Been talking about this trade since June.
    Nov 23, 2010
  • QEP and STR are solid NAT. Gas plays. Look at today's earnings.
    Oct 26, 2010
  • There is a lot of Nat. Gas floating around in the U.S. Would not be worried at all.
    Oct 11, 2010
More »

Latest Comments


Most Commented
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.