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. . . A little stingy with the "likes'? Yeah, me too. . . . Wonky (adj.): askew, awry, unsteady, off-kilter. Like gadgets or stock markets. Techwonk (me): someone who likes wonky stuff. . . disclosure: some posts may include input from other, uncredited sources (hi, uncle Fred) .
  • The April Fool's Day Portfolio 0 comments
    Mar 28, 2013 5:44 PM | about stocks: DIA

    No, it's not "the best stocks in which to lose all your money". Neither is it "the best stocks to protect you from those other jokers in the market".

    My April Fool's Day portfolio is one you can't invest in, because it doesn't exist. It's based on one simple question:

    What will the Dow 30 look like in 30 years?

    We know a few things about what has happened to blue chip companies in the past. They grow. They change. They innovate, or they acquire innovators. Sometimes they disappear - and entire industries disappear with them.

    Thus far I've got a list of 12 companies. So I'm inviting you to play along. What are your ideas for the next 18 companies? Old favorites? New entries? Small caps that could be heavyweights 3 decades from now?

    THE DOW IN 2043:

    ----------Companies that we'll recognize:-------------

    Monsanto - people will still have to eat, and growing food requires seeds.

    Google - by 2043 they may be Google Motors and making iCars, but they will still be around in some form.

    Disney - I can see Disney veering off into some new areas before 2043 also. They build large environment theme parks and then lease space for conferences. Can building conference centers themselves be next? We might have Disney Construction in 30 years.

    -----Companies that will have noticeably changed:---------

    Netflix Direct - Here's another name I see as persisting, but only through industry consolidation. DISH bought out Blockbuster. I can see DirectTV or Time Warner Cable doing the same to NFLX.

    Rentals, Inc. - Same idea, different companies. Synergy could result if Zipcar, HomeAway, and Rent-a-Center formed a team. One-stop shopping for limited term leasing of housing, cars, and household items.

    Amazon Express - Amazon is a big part of FedEx's customer base now. Why not just merge the two companies?

    Apple Pay - As online payment becomes widespread, I can see Apple spinning off a smaller company to handle purchases. Think of it as eBay/PayPal in reverse.

    ----Companies that will have grown from smallcap to largecap:-------

    Organovo and Applied Nanotech - Admittedly these may have more difficulty surviving, much less making it to the Dow. But I think we'll see some version of both industries represented there eventually, if not those two companies exactly. Organ transplants and small-scale assembly will still be around in 30 years.

    ------Companies that don't exist today:-------------

    I'm guessing there will be a few new contenders in 30 years, companies that don't even exist yet. Like these:

    Green Railways - Likewise, we'll still need rail, but how will it be powered? Biodiesel? Liquid natural gas? Petroleum-electricity hybrid?

    Waterworld Enterprises - One day cities may extend out into the ocean. Today we have oil drilling platforms, but commercial fishing, water desalination, weather and tsunami monitoring might also take place on inhabited offshore installations.

    IndiaQwik - Mexican, Chinese, and Italian restaurant chains and frozen foods bound, but no one has franchised Indian food in the West on a large scale thus far. Could have rapid growth worldwide by filling a need for healthy takeout.

    --------And the rest is up to you....--------------

    Those are my 12 picks. You'll notice I've not considered whole sectors, like consumer staples, manufacturing, and energy.

    What are your thoughts? Where will today's companies be in 30 years?

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Themes: Dow Jones Index Stocks: DIA
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