On March 24th and 25th, the political elections will be held in Italy.
The first rumors of a repeated candidacy of a coalition of parties led by Silvio Berlusconi appeared in mid November.
MEDIASET is a company listed on the Italian Stock Exchange (Borsa Italiana), which Silvio Berlusconi owns approximately for 40%.
If Berlusconi wins the election the stock will go up; if he loses the stock will go down.
The reasons are obvious: Silvio Berlusconi has always favored his companies when he was in government.
In fact, from mid-November 2012 to the present day the MEDIASET stock has increased its value by 65%.
Berlusconi announced his candidacy in mid-November and during this period the disadvantage of the center-right coalition led by Berlusconi towards the center-left coalition led by Bersani has gradually decreased.
In recent months I have carried out an in-depth study of the surveys, also based on the approach of Nate Silver.
In my opinion the chances that Silvio Berlusconi will be part of the new government are remote and for this reason I think that MEDIASET is to short before next Italian political elections.
Disclosure: I am short OTCPK:MDIUY, OTC:MDIEF. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.