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The Way We Were: One Year Ago on April 14, 2010

 HedgeFundLIVE — Let’s rewind back to exactly one year ago on April 14, 2010 and see what our Chief Market Strategist Jeremy Klein had to say on that day.

You must be 48″ to Ride this Ride – Thank heavens that’s over. Sure, the Spooz made a near 11 handle move higher yesterday after bouncing again off the 1185 launching pad just as it did late in the afternoon on Friday, but if we have another slightly positive day for the SPX on light volume, then to keep me awake, I will start forcing our Freshmen and trainees to participate in a TFG version of American Idol during the next installment of the Lumberjack Hour on our Webinar. Fortunately, and I do mean fortunately for none of them can sing, the calendar fills up in a major way for at least the next week. So much so, that not staying nimble or just taking for granted that the market goes up without a downtick every day will cost you. Ladies and gentlemen, please keep your children at home as no kids allowed on this ride.

Take today for example. At exactly 6:59 AM, JPM tells us how Q1 went, and roughly 90 minutes later, we get a double dose of economics with Advanced Retail Sales and the CPI. At 10AM, Bernanke goes back up on the Hill, and just around the time he starts taking Q&A, the DOE gives us the weekly Crude Inventory numbers. For good measure, the Fed releases the Beige Book at 2PM which will set the table for the FOMC meeting a fortnight from now. Whew, and please don’t get me started for the rest of the week or let alone next Monday or Tuesday, for amusement parks always made me dizzy.

While each data point by itself can move stocks and provide the centerpiece to nearly any typical day, with inflation nonexistent, I believe that the Retail stats coming at 8:30 AM will have the most legs. To be sure, we should always listen to a Fed Chairman speaking in front of a joint committee of Congress, but what can Big Ben possibly say that has meaning, for he leads an inert organization that has painted itself in a corner. It has run out of bullets in the scenario the economy double dips and with unemployment stubbornly hanging around the neighborhood of 10%, a tightening cycle anytime this year seems highly unlikely.


Whatever ends up leaving the most fingerprints behind on the day, equities will need as much as a lift from it as possible, for despite INTC going yard last night with earnings, taking out 1198.50 in the E-Minis will not be the layup that steamrolling through every other resistance level from 1040 has been, for Sunday’s overnight spike high in the futures in reaction to the Greek bailout marks the first level the bears can rally around since saying goodbye to 1150. If 1198.50 and then 1200 behind that does hold today, do not weep for the bulls for they will have ample opportunities over the course of the next several days once again to break the hearts and the backs of the shorts.


S&P 500 June E-Minis Key Technical Levels


Support: 1185.00, 1183.00, 1171.00, 1166.25/65.25, 1161.25/60.00, 1156.50


Resistance: 1198.00/98.50, 1200.00, 1210.00, 1214.50, 1220.00/20.50, 1224.50


Where we were then:


S&P Futures


Open: 1195.50


High: 1207.25


Low: 1194.50


Close: 1206.50


Where we are now:


Last: 1310.25