HedgeFundLIVE.com — The trading correllation between the EUR/USD and the S&P held firmly today, showing consistent price action. As I am writing this, the EUR/USD pair is slightly up and slightly above support. The support is at $1.42 which coincides with the fib retracement level of 23.6 (based on low 6-7-10, high on 5-4-11). The candle is moderate to bullish, and seems to be holding above support after breaking through it in early morning trading. I expect tomorrow to have bullish action, but with the support zone already broken the new downtrend is still in tact.
The Aussie showed similar price action to the EUR/USD today. Fundamentally the currency is one of the best in the world right now. However, the Australian government has released weaker than expected data this week regarding employment. The problem I see with the Aussie is that Oil could not fight and maintain a position above $100 per barrel today, signaling that the Aussie may be weakening as well.
On the charts provided: red line on the AUD/USD signifies the $1.02, turquoise line is parity. red line on Oil is $91.50 (my expected low) and turquoise is $100 per barrel.
I wrote a more in depth blog yesterday on Currency and Commodity markets.