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Devon Dolan
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  • Superberg 1 comment
    May 25, 2012 12:36 PM | about stocks: FB, ZNGA

    Mr. Zuckerberg, if you are out there, do it for the people!

    I have been watching the significant coverage of the Facebook IPO debacle, the uncertainty regarding the valuation, and the general malaise surrounding their relationship with Zynga. The street dislikes Facebook, and I believe the value manager is particularly disgusted with Facebook's valuation after watching many quality names decline in the recent European led sell off. Understandable.

    I'd like to offer a suggestion to Mr. Zuckerberg , which I believe will solve a number of problems for Wall Street, while also helping the public investor. The following analysis may not be precisely accurate, as there is already a revenue sharing agreement between Facebook and Zynga, but I believe the general concept is sound.

    Facebook does about 4 billion in revenue after backing out Zynga'scontribution. Zynga does 1 billion after backing out the same. Facebook's market cap after the IPO debacle is sitting around 80 billion and Zynga's is now at about 4.8 billion.

    Facebook could buy Zyna in an all stock deal for 8-10 billion representing a significant premium to Zynga's current price. By doing so, Facebook leverages only 10 to 12 percent of its existing market cap to generate a revenue increase of over 25%.

    Simplistically: Wall street IPO'd Facebook at 100 billion dollars doing 4 plus billion in revenue. This deal restructures Facebook from current levels (80 billion plus 10 for Zynga) to 90 billion dollars and 5 plus billion in revenue, creating material value for shareholders.

    Most believe the 20 billion in market cap lost since the Facebook IPO is the result of a last minute 10% revenue reduction to analyst estimates. By adding Zynga's 1 billion in revenues to Facbook's existing revenue stream, that analyst revision becomes somewhat moot. The uncertainty regarding the impact of Zynga's relationship with Facebook (in terms of Zynga thwarting other advertising streams for Facebook) becomes moot. Even the fears about Facebook's migration to mobile become less concerning (seems like everyone is playing Zynga's Draw Something on their phones).

    I believe a deal like this demonstrates leadership, improves the valuation, reduces the complexity of the valuation, generates a substantial long-term revenue increase, and establishes a foothold in mobile.

    I think a deal like this gets Facebook's valuation right back up to the IPO price, allowing public investors who have been hurt the opportunity to break even. While the acquirer's stock price tends to decline when announcing a deal, this particular deal has so many financial and psychological positives for Facebook, that it should generate excitement, investor interest, and higher stock prices. I did not participate in the Facebook IPO, but I do think there is significant value at these levels for both Facebook and Zynga.

    Disclosure: I am long FB, ZNGA.

    Stocks: FB, ZNGA
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  • economicsmaster
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    lol @ "Disclosure: I am long FB, ZNGA."
    25 May 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
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