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My Educated Guesses For The Rest Of 2015 And 2016

Apr. 12, 2015 12:23 PM ET1 Comment
Martin Vlcek profile picture
Martin Vlcek's Blog
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I believe Greece and Russia will unexpectedly get into spotlight again within the next few weeks (perhaps after the main Q1 earnings focus fades). This could affect the USD (further USD rally or fall depending on binary outcomes) and thus the price of oil may test the previous lows again or rally.

Greece is willing to default (or an equivalent of default) unless they get more concessions from creditors, so they are willing to go to the brink and keep adding fuel to fire.

The mercenaries on both sides (Russian separatists and Ukraine) are getting impatient as the weather gets warmer, so there is a high risk of a renewed Russian offensive (towards Mariupol and in the south generally). Putin just did an amnesty of 300,000 prisoners (to save on costs but also gain willing aggressive fighters looking for adrenaline and income). Many will be drafted to the mercenary army to fight in the Ukraine.

With Obama trying to smooth out all current conflicts almost at all costs as part of the 2016 presidential campaign to support a Democrats candidate, there will probably be efforts at a positive solution in Greece and Russia and more free trade promotions (such as Cuba and Iran) to boost the global economy at all costs, plus a high likelihood of more monetary easing in the U.S. in some form before the 2016 election.

Just my best guesses for the rest of 2015 and 2016, not necessarily for the next week.

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