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John Cofran
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John Cofran is a professional individual investor and money manager with 23+ years experience, and over $15,000,000 in assets under management. He is a former Pricewaterhouse auditor with degrees in Finance, Accounting and Economics from Boston College. In addition to building several highly... More
  • 2010 Portfolio Review & 2011 Outlook 0 comments
    Dec 17, 2010 9:52 AM | about stocks: FE, PFF, EXC, JNK, HYG, PSEC, LLY, PPL, AGNC, NLY, HPT, EQC, PBI, FTR, ELNK, ADC, VZ, SNH, KMB, HCN, COP, WWE, LINC, NYCB, SKX, TLAB, ASNA, RSH, CBK, WINN, CIM

    Here is a look at the entire portfolio, as of December 17, 2010:


    Weight Yld/Cost



    Cash 9.27% 0.00%
    FE 5.81% 5.87%
    PFF 5.49% 7.48%
    EXC 5.02% 4.89%
    JNK 4.64% 8.50%
    HYG 4.61% 7.95%
    PSEC 4.02% 12.45%
    LLY 3.93% 5.53%
    PPL 3.81% 5.27%
    AGNC 3.76% 19.87%
    NLY 3.72% 15.21%
    HPT 3.53% 8.32%
    CWH 3.16% 7.58%
    PBI 3.16% 6.01%
    FTR 3.04% 8.98%
    ELNK 2.91% 7.11%
    ADC 2.80% 7.86%
    VZ 2.75% 6.09%
    SNH 2.69% 7.10%
    KMB 2.61% 4.26%
    HCN 2.58% 6.07%
    COP 2.54% 3.84%
    WWE 2.29% 10.13%
    LINC 1.93% 6.64%
    NYB 1.77% 6.18%
    SKX 1.38% 0.00%
    TLAB 1.29% 0.00%
    CHRS 1.29% 0.00%
    RSH 1.20% 0.00%
    CBK 1.09% 4.13%
    MSFT17.5Calls 0.68% 0.00%
    WINN 0.67% 0.00%
    CIM 0.56% 17.90%

    Thus far, 2010 has been a great year for us with a YTD return of 37.9%. Looking ahead, I will continue to focus on dividend capture of high yielding (>4%) stocks, REITs, ETFs and MLPs. The strategy remains to generate income of 1% per month, as well as appreciation of 1% per month on average.

    In addition to high-yield dividend capture, I will continue to use a small portion of the portfolio (< 20%) to seek opportunities to take advantage of temporary price/value displacements, with a focus on low EV (enterprise value) / EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) multiple stocks.

    As for my market outlook, I continue to see upside to 1,280 on the S&P 500 in the short-term, followed by minor consolidation. Looking out further into 2011, I expect the S&P to rise close to, and possibly test, its all-time highs in the 1,510 - 1,576 range. Ultimately, I expect the re-test of the old all-time highs to fail, resulting in a 10% - 20% pullback from the 2011 highs.

    Disclosure: Long FE, PFF, EXC, JNK, HYG, PSEC, LLY, PPL, AGNC, NLY, HPT, CWH, PBI, FTR, ELNK, ADC, VZ, SNH, KMB, HCN, COP, WWE, LINC, NYB, SKX, TLAB, CHRS, RSH, CBK, WINN, CIM
    Stocks: FE, PFF, EXC, JNK, HYG, PSEC, LLY, PPL, AGNC, NLY, HPT, EQC, PBI, FTR, ELNK, ADC, VZ, SNH, KMB, HCN, COP, WWE, LINC, NYCB, SKX, TLAB, ASNA, RSH, CBK, WINN, CIM
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