Seeking Alpha

John Cofran's  Instablog

John Cofran
Send Message
John Cofran is a professional investor and money manager with 20+ years experience, and over $15,000,000 in assets under management. He is a former CPA applicant with degrees in Finance, Accounting and Economics from Boston College. In addition to building several highly successful private... More
  • 2011 Off To A Choppy Start 2 comments
    Jan 25, 2011 10:22 AM | about stocks: PFF, FE, EXC, LLY, WWE, RSH, WINN
    Thusfar, 2011 has been marked by increased volatility, with the Dow posting an average daily trading range of over 168 points, or 1.44%. Expect volatility to continue through February, which has been a weak month historically.

    Year-to-date, the portfolio is up 1.38%, trailing our benchmark by just over 1%. Primary contributors to the underperformance include our 13.5% cash position, a relatively light January dividend calendar and severe weakness in a few of our small-cap names (WWE, RSH, WINN).

    Longer term, we remain confident in our 2011 S&P 500 projections of 1,550 - 1,570, which represent a retest of the 2007 all-time highs. As such, any significant near-term market pull-backs should be seen as buying opportunities.

    We continue to position the portfolio conservatively, with a 13.5% cash position and a 7.73% yield on cost. Favored investments include utilities, telecoms, large-cap pharma, REITS, preferred stocks and high yield bonds. Greater selectivity is warranted as yields on many equity and REIT investments have come down over the past year, and increased competition from bond yields is expected later this year as interest rates rise with the recovery in the economy.

    Overall Sentiment:  Near-term cautious. Long-term bullish.
    Portfolio Yield: 7.73%
    Projection: Short-term correction of 3% - 5%. Initial S&P500 support at 1,257, further support at 1,225. Breakout to 1,400 - 1,440 in the next 6 months and 1,500+ in next 12 months.

    Top 5 Positions:
    1. Cash - 13.5%
    2. First Energy (FE) - 5.8%
    3. iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index (PFF)- 5.1%
    4. Exelon Corp. (EXC) - 4.9%
    5. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) - 4.6%
    Disclosure: Long: PFF, FE, EXC, LLY, WWE, RSH, WINN
Back To John Cofran's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (2)
Track new comments
  • I think PFF has to go higher eventually
    LLY is approaching support at $34.50 good place to increase position
    29 Jan 2011, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Giorgio, thanks for sharing your thoughts. I agree about PFF and will be increasing my weighting in it over the next several weeks. The monthly yield and appreciation should reward holders with 10%+ returns annually.

     

    I am also in agreement with you on LLY. To avoid over-concentration in one stock, however, I added positions in MRK and ABT this week to increase my exposure to large pharmas. I would agree, though, that at these prices one should consider a new position in LLY, especially with it going ex-dividend soon.
    30 Jan 2011, 11:36 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • out of $SYMC happy to make 14% in 12 days
    Apr 8, 2014
  • as if we didn't know, $GRUB confirms tech is in a 1999-2000 bubble... 50% of new tech firms will disappear and the other 50% will fall 70%
    Apr 4, 2014
  • trimming $CAT $QCOM $MSFT $LMT near 52-wk highs... sell in May go away is starting early this year
    Apr 2, 2014
More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.