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John Cofran
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John Cofran is a professional investor and money manager with 20+ years experience, and over $15,000,000 in assets under management. He is a former CPA applicant with degrees in Finance, Accounting and Economics from Boston College. In addition to building several highly successful private... More
  • June 8 Portfolio Recap 0 comments
    Jun 8, 2011 9:36 AM | about stocks: JNK, PFF, HYG, ETP, HPQ, CSCO, FTR, EXC, FE, PPL, PBI, NYCB, PSEC, NLY, CYS, BWP, AINV, LLY, EQC, FGP, HPT, TGT, OLP, AGNC, ADC, OHI, RSH, PTNR, MSFT
    The market is down over 6% from it's May 2nd peak. All indications are that we are likely to see the market enter official 'correction' territory (10% or greater retraction) as we approach Summer. I have used volatility over the last several months to produce stellar short-term returns and to reposition the portfolio defensively.

    Year-to-date, we are now outperforming the market by 0.5% and our more targeted, defensive portfolio weightings have boosted the current yield to 8.2%.

    Several hold-over technology trades from April, including (NASDAQ:CSCO), (NASDAQ:MSFT) and (NYSE:HPQ) have weighed on performance and currently comprise a larger than target weighting.

    As we enter a seasonally weak period for the markets, I expect the S&P 500 to retest the 2011 flat line of 1,258, ultimately flirting with the 10% correction level of 1,234. With a clear weakening of the economy showing up recently in all economic data, I expect bullish responses from politicians and the Fed, especially heading into an election year. With so much political capital at stake, I expect policy moves to excite the markets, pushing us back up to the 1,500 level within the next 12 months.

    Overall Sentiment:  Near-term cautious. Long-term bullish.
    Portfolio Yield: 8.21%
    Projection: Flat down in the near term. S&P to 1,500+ in next 12 months.

    Top 5 Positions:
    1. SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond (JNK)- 8.69%
    2. iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index (NYSEARCA:PFF)- 8.06%
    3. iShares High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG)- 6.76%
    4. Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE:ETP)- 5.21%
    5. Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ)- 5.16%
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