Robert Castellano's  Instablog

A massive increase in solar production with anticipated sales increasing more than 100% in 2010 is depleting inventory at a rapid rate, according to our report Opportunities in the Solar Market for Crystalline and Thin Film Solar Cells.


The list of solar companies continuing to beat analyst expectations continues to grow. Yingli (YGE), LDK (LDK), and First Solar (FSLR) all outperformed in recent weeks.  It is a far cry from 2009.

Inventory levels rose significantly in 2009 as numerous economic factors kept solar cell production growth at “only” 26.5%, far from the average yearly growth rate of nearly 50%.  Combined with a surge of new solar companies entering the market with thin-film-based cells, supply clearly exceeded demand, and inventory grew from an average of 71 days in 2008 to 90 days in 2009 (see chart below). 

In 2009, our research shows that 7,116 MW of solar power was consumed, but plants worldwide had a capacity of 19,013 MW, bringing capacity utilization levels to 37.4%. 

For 2010, we forecast an increase in solar panel consumption to 14,389 MW.  At the same time, new additional capacity will be brought on board to levels of 28,507 MW.  This will bring capacity utilization to 50.5% and reduce inventory to 67 days on average for all of 2010.

Solar power production will reach 30.7 GW in 2012, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 51.1% between 2003 and 2012.

Forecast of Solar Module Installation in Megawatts (MW)