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Robert Castellano
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Dr. Robert N. Castellano, president of The Information Network (http://www.theinformationnet.com/), received a Ph.D. degree in solid state chemistry from Oxford University (England). He has had ten years experience in the field of wafer fabrication at AT&T Bell Laboratories and Stanford... More
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  • Solar Cell Production Capacity Utilization Reaching 51% at Year End As Sales Double 1 comment
    Aug 19, 2010 1:20 PM | about stocks: YGE, LDK, FSLR

    A massive increase in solar production with anticipated sales increasing more than 100% in 2010 is depleting inventory at a rapid rate, according to our report Opportunities in the Solar Market for Crystalline and Thin Film Solar Cells.


    The list of solar companies continuing to beat analyst expectations continues to grow. Yingli (NYSE:YGE), LDK (NYSE:LDK), and First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) all outperformed in recent weeks.  It is a far cry from 2009.

     

    Inventory levels rose significantly in 2009 as numerous economic factors kept solar cell production growth at “only” 26.5%, far from the average yearly growth rate of nearly 50%.  Combined with a surge of new solar companies entering the market with thin-film-based cells, supply clearly exceeded demand, and inventory grew from an average of 71 days in 2008 to 90 days in 2009 (see chart below). 

     

     

     

    2008

    2009

    2010

     

     

     

     

    Solar Consumption (NYSE:MW)

           5,625

    7,116

           14,389

    Solar Capacity (MW)

          11,772

          19,013

           28,507

    Capacity Utilization

    47.8%

    37.4%

    50.5%

    Days Inventory

    71

    91

    67

     

    In 2009, our research shows that 7,116 MW of solar power was consumed, but plants worldwide had a capacity of 19,013 MW, bringing capacity utilization levels to 37.4%. 

     

    For 2010, we forecast an increase in solar panel consumption to 14,389 MW.  At the same time, new additional capacity will be brought on board to levels of 28,507 MW.  This will bring capacity utilization to 50.5% and reduce inventory to 67 days on average for all of 2010.

     

    Solar power production will reach 30.7 GW in 2012, a compound annual growth rate (OTCPK:CAGR) of 51.1% between 2003 and 2012.

     

    Forecast of Solar Module Installation in Megawatts (MW)

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    CAGR

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    748

    1195

    1786

    2521

    3,800

    5,625

    7,116

    14,389

    21,152

    30,670

    51.1%

     

     



    Disclosure: no positions
    Stocks: YGE, LDK, FSLR
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Comments (1)
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  • damji
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Dear Sir,
    As I described, we are solar panel manufacturer from India, with a capacity of 15 mw.
    pl z send me your best offer for solar cell, of size 156*156, multicristline,
    with an efficiency of 15-16.
    damji
    14 Nov 2010, 04:39 AM Reply Like
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