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  • PatternDNA Market Scan is now Live! 0 comments
    Oct 13, 2010 11:03 AM | about stocks: EXPE, MAT, STT, TDC, ALL, X

    Zignals is delighted to announce the Market Scan for premium PatternDNA is now live. As an example of its capabilities we took it for a quick spin.

    The first step is to select a pattern. We have selected one from the Microsoft chart from September; to do this, simply left click on the chart and drag over the days of the pattern you want to select. You can select up to 10 days for a pattern.

    MSFT PatternHighlighted Pattern

    The next step is to find the optimum Match Level; does it work best tightly defined or is better when loosely adapted to trading action. To do this we adjusted the Match level for each step and compared performance based on Target & Stops. The settings used were 10% Target, 10% Stop, 10% Trail Target, 10% Trail Stop and Profit Target of 45%. The stocks were the default "Zignals U.S." list made up of AAPL, AMZN, BA, C, CAT, CSCO, DIS, HPQ, IBM, INTC, IP, JNJ, JPM, KO, MSFT, SBUX, T and WMT.

    Weakest Weak Neutral Strong Strongest
    % Win 47.0% 46.8% 52.3% 63.9% 100%
    Avg Profit 7.9% 8.4% 8.0% 8.7% 8.9%
    Avg Loss -7.5% -7.2% -6.4% -4.2% 0.0%
    Return 0.1% 1.6% 4.8% 12.7% 17.9%
    Matches 258 171 79 17 4

    The strongest Pattern match offered 4 profitable trades. By selecting [List Results] you can view where these matches occur. You can see in the following image matches were found in MSFT (of course!), SBUX, DIS and WMT. While the MSFT was relatively recent it can be seen past Strongest matches were often forerunners to significant rallies.

    Even in the Strong Match (17 matches), Pattern failures tended to occur when the stock was trading sideways or after a rally.

    At this point we can further optimize by looking at different Target & Stop strategies. For simplicity sake, we are going to look at the Pattern performance without the Trail; this way we can set up two simple Alerts from the closing price of the Pattern to use as the Target and Stop for our Profits. For this analysis, the Strong match is used (to get a better sample size)

    Metric T:10 S:10 T:15 S:10 T15 S:15 T15 S:5 T20 S:10
    T20 S:15
    % Win
    72.2% 72.2% 91.7% 43.1% 63.9% 83.3%
    Avg Profit 7.0% 9.7% 10.6% 5.2% 9.7% 10.6%
    Avg Loss -4.1% -4.1% -1.4% -3.4% -5.0% -2.7%
    Return 8.4% 15.6% 15.8% 7.7% 13.5% 12.6%

    It's a relative toss up between using a Target of 15% and a Stop of 10% or 15%. It's a Pattern which doesn't perform well under the typical 3:1 risk reward ratio. In part, because Patterns like these tend to occur during bottoms, i.e. during periods of high volatility. So their success requires a broader stop to prevent an early exit. We shall adopt the 1:1 risk reward ratio with a 15% Target and a 15% Stop.

    The next step is to look for matches in the Market.

    The Market Scan at its Strongest setting found two matches over the past 10 trading days, United Steels Corp and Allstate. In the case of United Steels Corp (NYSE:X) the stock is offering a cheaper entry given it fell for the two days after the pattern was found. It is trading slightly down today at $44.51. The Pattern also occurred after a lengthy decline - unlike the second match for Allstate (NYSE:ALL) which appeared in the body of a rally.

    Stock Target Stop
    United Steel Corp (X) $52.81 $39.06
    The Allstate Corp (ALL) $37.03 $27.37

    Running the Match at the Strong setting found end-of-day matches (i.e. Pattern completed on yesterday's close) for Tuesday of EXPE, MAT, STT, TDC. Although all Matches occurred for stocks in a rally. There were 14 matches in total for the S&P 500 over the past 10 days.

    Stock Target Stop
    Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) $32.10 $23.72
    Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) $27.52 $20.34
    State Street (NYSE:STT) $45.61 $33.71
    Terdata Corp (NYSE:TDC) $43.69 $32.29

    Remember, you can use the Alerts application to track when Targets and Stops are breached - keeping you informed of the key market moves as they occur.

    Go give the PatternDNA a spin (Market Scan requires the Premium version) and we would love to hear your comments and Reviews.


    Disclosure: No Positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
    Stocks: EXPE, MAT, STT, TDC, ALL, X
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