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  • Long Short Update from December 20th 0 comments
    Jan 19, 2011 7:33 AM | about stocks: M, EXC, TQNT, BBRY, ATI, EW, TSL, ISIS, TJX, PCP
    With the New Year well underway it's time to jump into the Time Machine and see how PatternDNA performed on Jim Cramer's lightning round picks from December 20th. 

    Jim had six bullish picks (M, EXC, TQNT, RIMM, ATI and EW) and four bearish picks (TSL, ISIS, TJX and TIE). Of the 5-day Patterns found, those of TriQuint Semiconductor (TQNT) and Trina Solar Limited (TSL) had cumulative annualized returns of 11.8% and 14.4% respectively with the Pattern for TQNT having a 63% probability of closing higher after 5 days. 

    So how did the 5-day Pattern performance work out?

    Based on the 1-, 2- and 5-day probabilities, taking anything which fell inside the 40-60% range as a neutral call, we have seven cases where the PatternDNA correctly projected the outlook and only two where it failed. 

    The first pick, Macy's (M) showed a very common Pattern (196 matches in 18 stocks over the previous year) with a projected neutral outlook over the five days. In practice, the stock completed the third peak of a triple top on December 20th, closing down -3.7% after the five days and is currently well off it's 2010 high. 

    The second pick, Exelon (EXC) had a relatively rare Pattern (48 matches) with a modest bullish outlook of a 64% probability of finishing higher after 5 days. This Pattern played to form, closing higher on each day and returning a modest +1.5% by the fifth day close.

    The third pick, TriQuint Semiconductors (TQNT) exhibited a Pattern which had a 63% probability of closing higher on the fifth day. It was able to do this, finishing the fifth day with a +1.0% gain.

    The fourth pick, Research in Motion (RIMM), was the PatternDNA's only real miss. It's Pattern had a strong 2- and 5-day performance projection of a 66% and 65% probability for a higher close. It failed to reach those heights, closing down on each of the projection days for -2.4% finish by the fifth day. 

    The fifth pick, Allegheny Technologies Incorp (ATI) was a bit of a mixed bag. It had a 61% probability of closing higher on the second day after the Pattern completed - which it was able to do. But by the fifth day it was down -2.4%. 

    The sixth pick, Edwards Lifesciences (EW) had come off the back of a powerful run-up which had given its five-day Pattern a bearish outlook. The 1-day and 2-day outlook from the Pattern was for a 38% and 30% probability for a lower close. In each case it reached it's objective, finishing off -4.4% by the fifth day. 

    The seventh pick, Trina Solar (TSL), had a Pattern which didn't suggest any powerful 5-day move - but was one which offered good returns over a longer time frame. The stock was the best performer of all the picks, closing up +3.0% after 5-days. 

    The eighth pick, ISIS Pharmaceuticals (ISIS), had a exhibited a mildly bullish Pattern which had a 61% probability of closing higher by the fifth day. It did achieve its goal and finished with a +2.2% return. 

    The ninth pick, TJX (TJX), offered a Pattern which was mildly bullish over the five-day outlook and offered a reasonable cumulative annualized return of 10%.  It was able to close higher over each of its projection periods and finished the fifth day with a +2.0%.

    The last pick, Titanium (TIE), had a bearish 1-day Pattern outlook for a 61% probability for a lower close and a continued bearish outlook over the subsequent five days. In reality, it closed lower on each of the five projection days and took the largest loss of the ten picks, finishing down -7.8% on day five.

    All-in-All, a good week for PatternDNA projections!

    Stocks: M, EXC, TQNT, BBRY, ATI, EW, TSL, ISIS, TJX, PCP
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