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  • Long and Short Ideas for April 27th 0 comments
    Apr 27, 2011 10:06 AM | about stocks: CIM, ABT, EXPE, MRK, FE, NEM, PGR, FSLR, MA

    We sourced 9 stocks recently purchased by Paul Tudor Jones. How do these stocks look when given the PatternDNA treatment? The stocks are Chimera Investment (NYSE:CIM), Abbott Labortatories (NYSE:ABT), Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE), Merck & Co. (NYSE:MRK), First Energy (NYSE:FE), Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM), Progressive (NYSE:PGR), First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR), Mastercard (NYSE:MA)

    Stock No. of
    % Win
    % Win
    % Win
    Average Return
    Per Trade ( > 5 day)
    CIM 203 37 50 57 4.6
    ABT 157 46 47 56 4.5
    EXPE 355 48 46 57 4.7
    MRK 69 43 49 59 5.1
    FE 210 58 53 50 4.8
    NEM 36 57 57 54 6.1
    PGR 33 58 77 70 6.0
    FSLR 77 54 48 51 4.7
    MA 227 47 51 51 3.9

    Progressive (PGR) offered the strongest outlook for tomorrow's and next week's close (from today's open price) for a higher close. PatternDNA suggests there is a 77% probability for a higher close on Thursday and a 70% probability for a higher close next Tuesday. Chimera Investment (CIM) was the only other projection of note with a 63% probability of a lower close today. The remaining seven stocks had a relatively flat outlook.

    Over the three outlook days there was an average probability of 50%, 53% and 56% for a higher close for today, tomorrow and by next Tuesday. Not great odds.

    The outlook over the longer term was more positive. An Average Return Per Trade (Average Return Per Trade assumes an initial stop of 10%, raised to 5% off the price reached on a 15% gain. Ultimate Profit Target of 25%) of over 6.0% was projected for Newmont Mining (NEM) and Progressive (PGR). The pattern displayed for Progressive (PGR) was not only one which did well over the short term, but over the long term too. Of the 33 matches, 82% returned an average profit of 9.7%. Where it hurt was the 18% of trades which lost on average -10.6%, actually exceeding the protective stop threshold of 10%; when this pattern burned it burned you bad!

    But looking beyond Progessive, the patterns on display across the nine stocks tended to favour bulls over the long term. The percentage of winning trades ranged from 59% for Merck (MRK) to the aforementioned 82% of Progressive (PGR). The average win percentage for the nine patterns was 66%.

    So while the next 5-day outlook is a little mixed, over the longer term the patterns on show are more likely to deliver long side winners. 
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