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Fear & Greed Trader
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INDEPENDENT Financial Advisor / Professional Investor- with over 30 years of navigating the Stock market's "fear and greed" cycles that challenge the average investor. Investment strategies that combine Theory, Practice and Experience to produce Portfolios focused on achieving positive... More
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  • Market Update 8/18 - Correction Or Roatation? - What's Ahead 3 comments
    Aug 18, 2013 5:57 PM | about stocks: DIA, SPY, QQQ

    In order to keep things in context , here is a link to the last post with my views on the overall market from Aug 5th

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/706857-fear-greedtrader/2098252-market-update-8-5-13-should-we-change-our-cautionary-outlook

    Since that time the S & P has come down from 1703 to the present close of 1655 last Friday. A 2.8% decline. As I have mentioned in my recent posts on the market , there are many divergent signals that are being presented. That caused some concern earlier in Aug as to whether my thoughts for a correction were in fact warranted.

    The recent close @ 1655 now puts the average below its 50 day MA and may be the start of more weakness. How much & how far. is the 64,000 question. On one hand , the recent weakness in the market has not presented itself with overall mass selling. Rather so far what I have see is a rotation from some of the strongest sectors & stocks to other areas in the market. Look at the action in AAPL & QCOM this past week. FCX has improved , look at the action this past week in CAT. Now it remains to be seen if that rotation will continue & limit the downside or are we going to get a full scale sell off here.

    I favor the odds for a full scale correction here. Seasonal weakness and what may be more headlines from the DC crowd as mentioned in earlier commentary may contribute to that downside. Lets not forget the 'tapering" story.

    If in fact that occurs my first target for the S & P would be a retest of the June Lows or the 1560 area, or another 6% downside from here.

    The markets are always an evolving story, keep in mind these comments are in context with the overall theme that we are in fact in the early stages of a secular bull market. LT holders need to review their portfolios , but other than minor tweaks , its is advised to stay the course. be prepared to put some funds to work if in fact we see that selloff.

    CSCO, INTC OHI are three names that may exhibit more weakness but can be added for LT div yield & growth.

    I will be updating my holdings" which I have posted here to include some of my favorites by sector.

    Themes: Market update Stocks: DIA, SPY, QQQ
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Comments (3)
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  • A full scale correction seems quite likely. The market is way ahead of itself and the end of QE is in sight. Fiscal situation improving slowly but still an issue; Europe inching ahead but still weak; deadlock between Congress, Senate and President remains in place; rates starting to edge up; does not hurt to have a short book, cash and a few puts.
    18 Aug 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Michael,
    Thanks for the input ,, agreed, I am leaning that way at the moment, as u stated always wise to have cash.
    19 Aug 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Good article . I liked it. BR.MJ.
    22 Aug 2013, 03:51 AM Reply Like
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