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Fear & Greed Trader
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INDEPENDENT Financial Advisor / Professional Investor- with over 30 years of navigating the Stock market's "fear and greed" cycles that challenge the average investor. Investment strategies that combine Theory, Practice and Experience to produce Portfolios focused on achieving positive... More
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  • GOLD - Update On The DZZ Position 3 comments
    Sep 5, 2013 12:55 PM | about stocks: DZZ

    The initial commentary on my DZZ position (short Gold) can be seen here.

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/706857-fear-greedtrader/2057612-

    gold-what-to-do-now

    Since then it has been a rocky ride as noted in my last update on 8/23

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/706857-fear-greedtrader/2157782-gold-strong-dollar-dzz

    In that commentary i stated --"DZZ currently stands at $5.85 , so I will continue to monitor with a "mental Stop " around $5.50.."

    Well, the price of Gold rallied to $1418 and my corresponding short position in Gold Via DZZ traded down to an intraday low of 5.57.

    I also continued to maintain that $1450 would represent resistance to the recent upward move in the metal. And that level did in fact 'hold" as the intraday high on 8/26 was $1,433.

    Since that Peak of 1418 on 8/26 , the price of gold has dropped to the current price as I write this article-- $1370.

    I continue to see more volatility in Gold over the next few weeks due to the hysteria surrounding Syria, etc. However , I do believe the rally has been turned back successfully and the metal will continue lower, albeit with spikes along the way do to the "manufactured fear" quotient from the goldbug crowd.

    Looking at the chart pattern, the "Gold bulls' will have to defend the $1360 level here. If that level fails , I believe my initial forecast may come to fruition as the metal will head much lower and retest the $1,200 level.

    Long term I still believe there is a very good possibility that 1,000 or over 30% lower from here, may be in the cards.

    Disclosure: I am long DZZ.

    Additional disclosure: I am Short gold via DZZ , Long numerous stock positions - full list is available on this blog Stocks4income@usa.com

    Themes: Gold Short position Stocks: DZZ
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Comments (3)
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  • F&G good stuff. Yesterday, gold was falling & even in the pre-market today (Sept. 6) gold was drifting lower. Then the jobs report came out as disappointing which meant no tapering in September. Suddenly gold was up over $10 in the pre-market as traders had to cover their short positions in gold (as reported on CNBC this am).

     

    So you have hysteria over Syria but also the fact that tapering will result in interest rates going higher & gold going lower. As the economy here in the US recovers, as well as in Europe, gold is not seen as the place to put your money in case the world collapses theory. I'm expecting gold to eventually go down to the $1250 level, perhaps even lower in a couple of years as all over the world, economic conditions improve.

     

    The short term volatility in the gold market does allow you to make money, if you are fortunate to guess which way to place your bet. I'm watching for an opportunity to buy (DUST), maybe when the hysteria over bombing Syria is at its height. I was about to buy it yesterday, and even this am before the market opened, but thankfully waited for the jobs report & then didn't buy.

     

    A few weeks ago, I made over $27,000 trading (NUGT). I was inspired after seeing Dr. Ken make so much money on (NUGT) in the portfolio challenge. If anyone wants to participate in the challenge or follow it, go to Interesting Time's blog found here

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Looking forward to your future articles.
    6 Sep 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Blue,

     

    Thanks for the commentary.. I agree there are opportunities using NUGT & DUST for short term swings.. Just look at today with the hysteria over Syria. Gold was down premarket , now up $17..

     

    I do believe even with all of this Syria nonsense , Gold will settle lower.

     

    Congrats on your trade !!
    6 Sep 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » As mentioned above on Sept 5, "on Looking at the chart pattern, the "Gold bulls' will have to defend the $1360 level here. If that level fails , I believe my initial forecast may come to fruition as the metal will head much lower and retest the $1,200 level."

     

    Gold as predicted failed at the 1360 level, and has collapsed. If the 1283 level is broken , 1200 will soon follow.. There is simply no reason to own Gold until we see a reversal of this bear market.. That may be a long time in coming .
    1 Oct 2013, 05:39 PM Reply Like
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