The markets went on a wild ride this past Friday, In my view its now all about Syria. The market received another round of decent global economic news this week until Friday's Jobs report.
In fact the Jobs number was disappointing, but the market shrugged it off and was higher until the Syrian rhetoric from both Obama & Putin whipsawed the Dow over 200 points during the day.
Of course in between those two, we heard our share of "Fed" talk , with the upcoming "decision" meeting now in plain sight. I have been in the camp of "no taper" since June , however I may be proven wrong since i do believe we have a 50 - 50 chance of the Fed easing on purchases in Sept. I wouldn't be shocked or surprised , either way. In that context I am not expecting any market reaction other than a possible "Knee Jerk" scenario on the announcement. I believe the market has already anticipated this move. Those that believe the market will 'fall apart" when the Fed pulls back on purchases will be just as surprised and just as wrong in their assessment as those that have stated that the market will be hard pressed to advance in the face of rising interest rates. Note that 10 Yr treasuries were @ 1.67% this time last year. This Friday they closed @ 2.96% . The 10 year has almost doubled and since that time the S & P has risen 13% from S & P 1465 to S & P 1655.
As the Fed Eases on their asset purchases , the market will adjust just as it has adjusted with the interest rate normalization . The underlying global economy is slowly improving and as that takes place it eases the "Market shock" many expected . The more important driver of higher rates is simply the fact that the economic fundamentals have improved considerably. Anyone that continues to maintain that higher rates will be the death knell for the markets is short-sighted, since we know that the economy has been very strong in the past when interest rates were far higher than they are now.
One example on the global front is the current state of European Banks. (Remember how they were supposed to cause the next "crisis" ?)
On the home front ,I will also point to the fact that Car sales have been rising at strong double-digit rates for the past four years, and have almost returned to pre-recession levels. This is a picture of a powerful V-shaped recovery. Conditions in the manufacturing and service sectors have improved, both here and abroad. Federal revenues are up almost 13% in the past year, and they have risen at a 15% annualized pace in the six months ending in July; tax revenues don't rise like this unless there is some real improvement in jobs, incomes, capital gains, and corporate profits.
The naysayers to this data have blinders on and are in denial.
However, given all of that, it will be no surprise then that the next few days, weeks will now come down to Syria. Of course , from an investment perspective , the situation should be monitored. If this turns out to be the event that triggers a pullback, it will present a buying opportunity.
Stay focused , this too shall pass. For me, it will be a matter of how much havoc & volatility it creates for the market. I am currently on the sidelines and in a "wait and see" mode. Long term investors can watch this event come & go , & perhaps use it as an opportunity to add quality names to your holdings.
Stay Tuned - Keep the word "Fear" out of your investment dictionary .
If you missed the missives I penned earlier on Fed tapering they can be viewed here :
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Additional disclosure: I am long numerous Equity positions ( List can be viewed here in the blog) , I am short Gold via DZZ -- Stocks4Income@usa.com