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Fear & Greed Trader
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INDEPENDENT Financial Advisor / Professional Investor- with over 30 years of navigating the Stock market's "fear and greed" cycles that challenge the average investor. Investment strategies that combine Theory, Practice and Experience to produce Portfolios focused on achieving positive... More
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  • Avoid The Noise - Revisited - A Bear "Fear" List. 13 comments
    Sep 18, 2013 10:46 AM

    I have always cautioned investors to avoid the constant bombarding of 'headlines' that takes place in media , blogs, etc. If you've been kept on the sidelines by the hysterical headlines that are churned out daily , you've missed the greatest 18 months in the history of the global stock market.

    Revisit this list every time the bears decide to roll out another "headline" ( Hint: Next up "debt ceiling II" -Obama Boehner Round II)

    The following caught my eye while I was researching recent market psychology.

    Lament of those that were paralyzed by the "noise"

    The market will "crash" & I went to cash because (please check one):

    1. Sequestration

    2. The Taper

    3. Obamacare

    4. Debt Ceiling

    5. Egypt Revolution

    6. Portuguese Bond Auctions

    7. US Elections

    8. Syria Threat

    9. Sharknado

    10. Chinese GDP

    11. London Whale

    12. High Frequency Trading

    13. Nasdaq Freeze

    14. Grexit

    15. Marc Faber web video appearance on cnbc.com

    16. Larry Summers

    17. Low Volume

    18. CAPE Valuation

    19. Hindenburg Omen

    20. Death Cross

    21. Other (please explain): _____________

    Stay Focused & Good Luck !

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Comments (13)
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  • Augie91
    , contributor
    Comments (247) | Send Message
     
    Sharknado :) That's what did it for me! Thanks for the calming, deep breath, of sanity.
    18 Sep 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Fed no taper announcement -- what do you think?

     

    I'd decided during the last 2 weeks' rally, that there isn't going to be a huge downside for a bit - at least while the Fed is monitoring. So time for me to get back in. Was waiting till today, in case of a nice drop for an entry point. ....now I've got to decide, get in now, or wait till the next noise brings it down. I'm inclined get in in the next few days but with limit stops (to avoid flashes).

     

    One analysis had an insight - Fed's worried that interest rates went up too much for what they'd like right now, based on the taper rumor.

     

    I'd bet the rally included some inside leakage to big firms, so they were "expecting taper" but...not really.

     

    Now I have to figure out a nice long term layout! Bet it was nice to have happy customers today :).
    18 Sep 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Another topic - I bought, sold a couple times today... apparently I can't use proceeds from sales to buy again or it's a free ride. I'm going to call my broker to learn the in's & out's, but any insights on how to get around this. Hard to believe for "day trading" I can't keep using the same funds. They don't trust themselves to pay me?
    18 Sep 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Ah, never mind on trading limits. It's that I had a cash account, and multiple trades only work in margin accounts...
    18 Sep 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5102) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Curls,

     

    I was in the camp of no taper since June, but i will admit I ,like everyone else got caught up with the media & other talk about them tapering this month.
    Remember, no one at the fed ever said they were tapering in Sept. it was all speculation by the so called experts.

     

    Today's action with a new closing high in the Dow 30 along with a new closing high in the dow transports , just gave another dow theory buy signal. However , before anyone gets too excited here , the last two times it has happened this year the market has dropped right after that . I am going to try & write a small blog post about that later complete with charts to demonstrate.. People often assume that once that dow theory signal is given its the all clear to buy , instead it is a long term signal.. stocks will be higher down the road, the short term to interim interim may be down or very choppy.

     

    I am expecting the same to happen , we shall see starting tomorrow

     

    Good Luck
    18 Sep 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    Hi F&G good posts! Today was crazy action, so I am expecting a pull back in the short term. Until we get past October, then we might take off again. Sept/Oct & sometimes into Nov. are historically very trying times for the markets. We've had some real drops in October (1987 comes to mind) that were excellent buying opportunities.

     

    So Curls, don't get too anxious. You might want to go into the market very slowly, 5% at a time. Who knows, the market has been wild this year. I bought a lot of stocks starting back in April/May when I sold all my mutual funds & bonds. I am so relieved that I got out of those investments. Should have done it even before that! Can you believe that I had about $200,000 in municipal bonds, split between NJ & Puerto Rico? Very lucky that they were sold months ago, as now selling them would have meant some losses.

     

    During the worst of it in August, my losses were over $50,000. After the recent run up, back in the green & more. whew! I'm expecting some rough times to come though. Maybe by late December, we will know if the "rally" continues into 2014. Long term the markets will go up. Since buy & hold your stocks until there is a dividend cut is my philosophy now, sure do hope our economy gets back to burning on all all cylinders.

     

    Just remember to buy stocks when they are good value, relatively under priced. How do you determine this? Use PE ratios and check out Fast Graphs, Chuck Carnevale. Sometimes if it's a (SBUX) or (TSCO) you can buy at higher valuations because the growth is spectacular. If you can get a stock cheap, you will make more $ in the long term.

     

    Days like today are fun, but we may see some of these gains evaporate in the weeks ahead.
    18 Sep 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    "stocks will be higher down the road, the short term to interim interim may be down or very choppy."

     

    Makes sense. Saw some analysts say that too. I didn't buy in today after the hike. I'm wondering about a bounce "down" in balance to this (over?) reaction upward. There's so much noise to bring the market down, that there's got to be better entry points. Plus, when tapering does begin (unless economic indicators are more solid) the market will come down. (So for me, good news will be good news!) So even when I get in, I'm keeping stops and leaving when noise or movement looks very negative. Not that I believe the noise, but I ready do think there'll be another over correction down. 100k question is, whether there'll be tons of climb before it corrects :).

     

    Once again, how you put it, helps me consolidate my thinking...!
    18 Sep 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5102) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My take on the market action today

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    18 Sep 2013, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • UncleSam187
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    F&G,
    Good points and quite funny. Ironically EGPT has performed extremely well since the revolution began ( or is it ironic at all? )

     

    I think my biggest contrarian indicator is my father-in-law. He sold his S&P position at 1400 and has complained several times since. I know when he tells me that he wants to buy back in is when I should sell sell , SELL!
    19 Sep 2013, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5102) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Uncle,

     

    No disrespect to your father in law, but i agree with your thoughts on using him as a contrarian indicator. I have a fiend who has been out of the market for years now & when he calls to get back on board , it may be a signal that we are at a top. If these two ever decide to get back in at the same time we will surely be in trouble ;)

     

    Good luck with your investments.
    19 Sep 2013, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (719) | Send Message
     
    #21:

     

    My old car was coughing up transmission fluid and oil. Cashed out in June. Now have a more reliable car with a/c and can go to work with less worry. Paid off some credit card debt. Am still saving and investing...
    19 Sep 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5102) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » User , you definitely dont fit into the 'bear" camp , so for that u are excused ;)
    19 Sep 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    @ U7

     

    I had a car that reached "the age of daily transfusions." It was sad, and a very nice funeral...
    19 Sep 2013, 08:31 PM Reply Like
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