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Fear & Greed Trader
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Independent Financial Advisor / Professional Investor- with over 25 years of navigating the Stock market's "fear and greed" cycles that challenge the average investor. Investment strategies that combine Theory, Practice and Experience to produce Portfolios focused on achieving positive... More
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  • Target & JP Morgan  12 comments
    Sep 28, 2013 10:15 AM | about stocks: TGT, JPM

    I initiated a position in TGT @63.80 as posted here :


    I took this opportunity to add a dividend aristocrat at what i believe to be depressed levels.. The stock is trading at the low end of its trading range due to selling pressure lately which stems from their latest disappointing earnings report.. These short term blips offer opportunity for the LT investor as I demonstrated with the purchase of (NYSE:COH) and (NASDAQ:BBBY) two other retailers after they too disappointed investors with what turned out to be a temporary slowing in earnings..

    TGT has paid dividends for 46 years and in the last 10 years sports a dividend growth rate of 18% .. It presently sports a 2.8% div yield.

    Trading in the 63-64 level represents value , while there is always a chance for further weakness , the risk reward seems favorable as I believe the shares will trade back to the mid 70 level, while looking at the possibility of only 4-5% downside from here if the market weakens..

    While the S & P traded 10 points during the day on 9/27 TGT as UP on this session.. A sign that maybe the stock has indeed bottomed..

    During the same day (9/27) I added to my position to JPM @52.24 . While the market was down , JPM was UP on the day . The latest headlines for JPM have been outright terrible and yet the stock has shown to be resilient as it traded down to its 200 day MA and bounced up from that level this past week..

    Those headlines of the potential 11 Billion payout that JPM may have to make to settle Mortgage issues ,while the stock holds it ground is indicative of the strength of the company's business going forward..

    I have a target price in the mid 60's in '14 and will collect the 3% dividend along the way.. More increases may be on the way similar to the 27% increase we just saw this past May ...

    For those interested in getting on board , the Ex- div date for the next payout is 10/2.

    Good Luck !

    Disclosure: I am long TGT, JPM.

    Additional disclosure: I am long numerous stock positions ( list can be seen here on this blog) I am short Gold via DZZ

    Stocks: TGT, JPM
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Comments (12)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8734) | Send Message
    Hi F&G -- you're writing blogs faster than I can keep up! I missed TGT going down on earnings. Definitely still a strong company. Thanks for the blog on it!


    I'm still puzzling over the weak market over the debit ceiling and g'vt shut down. Both will be short term bad for economy, but they wouldn't last & politicians will eventually make a deal... so why so much fuss that the market is selling? (Thought I read/saw that it's not selling as much as it's not buying to offset selling, i.e. light volume that way.)


    Is there anything else to bring the markets down for a bit to create that correction or interim top everyone's been looking for?
    28 Sep 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Hi Curls,


    I believe you have it right , there has been a lack of buyers , that is causing the weakness lately. It sure doesn't seem to be huge selling programs that are causing it..


    Debt ceiling & gov't shutdown will be the next issues but i agree they will be short lived .


    I think we will get more clarification as we enter and go thru earnings
    Maybe that is the catalyst for the next move.. Hard to envision another leg higher from here without some nice earnings improvement.. So maybe a trading range ?


    Thinking back to what a friend just told me a while ago,, "the market will correct on an event that no one is looking at or expecting "


    I'm now taking the posture , if i see what i believe to be quality (i.e TGT) I will add , rather than try to outguess the next market move..
    I'm not chasing names here but waiting for what I believe will work out as we go into next year..


    Good luck with your investments..
    28 Sep 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Augie91
    , contributor
    Comments (335) | Send Message
    Never owned TGT, but have owned WMT. I believe they are both strong retailers and should both be bought when down. People love to shop at both and both are constantly expanding into new markets!!
    28 Sep 2013, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Augie,


    I've never owned TGT myself until now.. Thee fact that they come up with a positive number on most all of the metrics i use , caught my attention.


    Being a div. aristocrat, scoring high on the "chowder" metric, solid numbers from "fastgraph" , etc. It should be a good LT buy ..


    TGT compares very favorably to WMT on these metrics , as u said both are good LT buys on dips..
    29 Sep 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • FreeStateYank
    , contributor
    Comments (803) | Send Message
    Both TGT and JPM have been on my watch list and put in a limit order for both a couple of weeks ago. My buy target price was about 5% lower for both, but I might initiate a small purchase of both and add more based on price/volume action.


    Also picked up PIR on the big drop off. It has a great product mix and I like what they are doing for online sales.


    Always a pleasure to read your posts, F & G!


    28 Sep 2013, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Freestate,




    One of my faults is waiting for that precise moment to pull the trigger..
    I often can take on a traders mentality when it comes to that , but it also adds a bit of caution , which is always prudent.. I agree , if you like a stock and believe its in your buy range , add some but leave cash aside to possibly add later.. Some take it in 3 stages others like to break it into 4 ,,,


    I usually go with 2 or 3 , and never let a single position get too big..


    Enjoy !
    29 Sep 2013, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
    Hi Fear&Greed!


    Great article as usual.


    (TGT) added to my watch list.


    I wonder at what rate they could grow their earnings for the next 10 years?
    29 Sep 2013, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Krusty,
    I believe they can grow earnings at around 11% , similar to what they have done in the past.. The FCF yield is a respectable 6.2% .
    29 Sep 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
    Thanks! :-)


    11% seems reasonable.
    29 Sep 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » S& P down , Dow down 135 , TGT is UP on the day , another indication the selling in these shares may be over..
    30 Sep 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
    Excellent observation.
    1 Oct 2013, 05:10 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Added more TGT today @ 57.95
    28 Jan 2014, 04:48 PM Reply Like
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