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Fear & Greed Trader
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INDEPENDENT Financial Advisor / Professional Investor- with over 30 years of navigating the Stock market's "fear and greed" cycles that challenge the average investor. Investment strategies that combine Theory, Practice and Experience to produce Portfolios focused on achieving positive... More
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  • Be Thankful-- Not Giddy ! 4 comments
    Nov 26, 2013 5:45 PM | about stocks: AAPL, CSCO, ESV, RIG

    For those that have been able to ride this Bull run this year , we have many things to be thankful for.. But I caution that its not time to be giddy. The question I posed on 11/16

    was if in fact we would see a pullback from the highs that were registered or would the hedge fund money managers chase this market into year end,, i believe we have seen that is exactly how it's played out..

    Another factor that is playing into the recent surge: The below-average real returns for equities during the past 12 years, in combination with the near- uninterrupted 30-year rally for bonds, has led to a recent shift in investor allocations. Investors are opening their financial statement, focusing in on the fact that their bond portfolio allocations are losing money. And now many are realizing that this trend will more than likely continue in '14 . Since December 2007, investors have poured more than $1.1 trillion into bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs)-more than 33 times the amount allocated to equity funds and ETFs . We are now just beginning to see this allocation reversal unfold, and it will take a great deal of time to play out .. Another factor that plays into the Equity secular bull theme, as the bond market enters into a bear market...

    I have watched the latest move that has taken the S & P to above the 1800 level, and have not deployed any new funds here. Instead, trimming positions and raising cash. Also, selling upside calls on some winners (i.e - I sold the Jan 72.50 call on QCOM,FFIV Dec 90, etc ) This shouldn't be taken as a "bearish" signal here , but simply being prudent and cautious after a huge run.

    The market will always present opportunity for those that are patient.

    We may see some of that in the latter part of Dec as many will start to eject the stocks that have not performed to date. One such example may be CSCO which I again highlighted here . IMO a perfect name for those who have been on the sidelines.. Limited downside and plenty of upside for the Long term investor.

    Take a look at AAPL, as it broke out today , a great time to add to positions here or get on board for a ride to 600 -625 in '14..

    The two deep water drilling companies that I have mentioned (NYSE:ESV) & (NYSE:RIG) have both come down from their recent highs , Both undervalued and both offer great dividend yields. These are the type of stocks that are not overextended, have limited downside and offer income with their dividends.. So, an investor can play a little defense , and still get on board names that will grow their portfolio In the future.. It indicates that many stocks are far from "Bubble territory"

    Next week I will take my first look into '14 and how investors can profit into next year..

    Happy Thanksgiving to all !!

    Themes: Market update Stocks: AAPL, CSCO, ESV, RIG
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Comments (4)
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  • Nitin B. Sharma
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
    I love reading your posts. Thanks much.
    26 Nov 2013, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6114) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Nitin,
    Thank you !!
    26 Nov 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • blablah
    , contributor
    Comments (146) | Send Message
    I agree. F&G has real common sense with no drama or clickbaits.
    26 Nov 2013, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6114) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » blablah,


    & thank you !!
    26 Nov 2013, 07:38 PM Reply Like
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