Full index of posts »
StockTalks

Allocation Or Stock Selection  An Example http://seekingalpha.com/p/1xfy7 Sep 7, 2014

Simple GMR $EEM, $IJJ, $ILF http://seekingalpha.com/p/1uu8b Jul 31, 2014

Naive Graham: Taming Leveraged Funds http://seekingalpha.com/p/1sgbh Jun 20, 2014
Latest Comments
 varan on Simple GMR Yes. Though at least my broker does not allow t...
 user208606 on Simple GMR Thanks for the quick response. A follow up ques...
 varan on Simple GMR yes.the selection is based on the returns for t...
 user208606 on Simple GMR In case I missed this, is the ETF purchased bas...
 nimman919 on Simple GMR Hi Why it is not include a japan markert?
 drftr on Historical Performance Of Some Portfolios During The Withdrawal Phase Well done Varan. Could be the introduction for ...
Most Commented
 A low drawdown strategy for sector rotation for Fidelity Select Funds (119 Comments)
 Naive Graham: Passive Investing According To The Master (113 Comments)
 Simple GMR (112 Comments)
 Balanced Strategy: Value Funds (28 Comments)
 Simple Monthly Strategy Based On Polygamous Paired Switching (28 Comments)
Posts by Themes
60/40 Portfolio,
Adaptive Allocation,
adaptive allocation,
Adaptive allocation,
Adaptive asset allocation,
Adaptive Asset Allocation,
Adaptive Asset Allocation ,
Annually rebalanced portfolio,
annually updated portfolio of dividend growth stocks,
Asset Allocation,
Asset allocation,
Beating the market,
Closed End Funds,
Distribution Phase,
Dividend Growth Investing,
Dividend growth stocks,
Dividend Growth stocks,
Dividend growth stocks.,
Dividends,
ETF,
ETF trading strategy,
Fidelity Select Funds,
Global Market Rotation Strategy simplified,
Hedged Portfolio,
Leveraged ETFs,
Leveraged Funds,
MLPs,
Modern Portfolio Theory,
modified risk parity,
Most diversified portfolio of some utility stocks,
Naive Graham asset allocation strategy,
pairedswitching,
permanent portfolio of dividend growth stocks,
PIMCO funds,
Portfolio Allocation,
portfolio strategy,
Portfolio strategy,
Quarterly Rebalancing,
Quarterly rebalancing,
rebalancing,
Risk Parity,
Sector ETFs,
Sector Rotation,
Trading volitilty ETFs,
Withdrawal phase of retirement,
Workplace Retirement Plans,
zero annual drawdown portfolio
The Basic Portfolio 15 comments
This is a follow up to an earlier post. I have changed the basket a bit to minimize the number of ETFs that cannot be traded without commission at Fidelity. The performance of this basket is slightly better.
The strategy is derived from a synthesis of various ideas: relative strength and persistence of momentum, polygamous paired switching, and averaging over multiple time scales. The last one is just the antithesis of any strategy that optimizes with respect to the holding and evaluation periods. My view is that any such optimization would lead to a method that works very well in back testing but is quite fragile/brittle for the future. Averaging over multiple pairs of holding and evaluation periods provides the possibility of robustness with respect to future market movements whose time scales are generally unpredictable.
Although this strategy can be easily implemented without too many complex calculations, it seems to provide a very attractive method to adaptively change not only the weights of various components of the basket but also the number of ETFs that are invested in at any given time.
This quarterly rebalancing strategy works well to minimize portfolio volatility without any significant deleterious effect on the returns.
(a)at the beginning of every quarter choose a set of assets that performed the best during the immediately preceding month,
(b) at the beginning of every halfyear choose a set of assets that performed the best during the immediately preceding month, and
(c) at the beginning of every year choose a set of assets that performed the best during the immediately preceding quarter.
Obviously the assets from the three tranches can be commingled at the beginning of each quarter to be equally divided in the three tranches. Further the number of selected assets should be close to the number of equity ETFs in the basket (as in 1(a)).
Note that each of the three tranches specifies a set of weights for each of the components of the basket, with the weights for the first one changing every quarter, for the second one every sixmonths and for the third one only once a year. At the beginning of each quarter, these three sets of weights are averaged to construct the portfolio.
The basket consists of the following:
IJJ IJS EFA EEM IYR CEF AGG LQD TLT IEF EMB MBB
Apart from EFA, EEM, CEF, all these ETFs can be traded commission free at Fidelity. Commission free versions of EFA and EEM are available, but not much historical data exist for those ones, and so we have used EFA and EEM for back testing.
At each update for each tranch, five assets were chosen. However, since three different set of weights are averaged, the actual number of ETFs in the portfolio at any given time may range from five to fifteen. The following figure shows the number of ETFs that were in the portfolio during 20032013.
(click to enlarge)
Here are the detailed results for 2003:2013
CAGR 14.6%
Sharpe Ratio .99
Kelly Fraction .42
Maximum Monthly Drawdown 13.7%
Monthly One Factor Alpha .70%
Monthly One Factor Beta .48
Monthly One Factor R^2 .42
The equity curve, the Manhattan asset allocation diagram and the basic asset allocation diagram are shown below.
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
Disclosure: I am long IJS, LQD, CEF, AGG.
Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.
Share this Instablog with a colleague