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With hedge fund manager, CNBC regular and long-time veteran of the Russian markets Tim Seymour at the helm, Emerging Money (http://www.emergingmoney.com) provides education, trading analysis and comprehensive views of emerging markets around the world. As economies in the BRIC group and beyond... More
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  • The Fed wants to revive inflation 0 comments
    Nov 3, 2010 2:47 PM

    Based on this morning's data, the Federal Reserve may be a little hasty in determining that the United States is lagging the rest of the global economic resurgence in any appreciable way.

    The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing  PMI  for October came in at 54.3, rising from 53.2 in September and far above the 53.5 that Wall Street consensus was looking for.

    Needless to say, this is only slightly under the  Chinese number  of 54.7 -- and everyone in the market has been applauding  China  for a spectacular economic boom or, at best, wondering whether inflation was right around the corner.

    Are the U.S. numbers that far away from the Chinese data that the Federal Reserve needs to pump another $600 billion trillion into the economy in order to goose the recovery? Hard to tell, and none of us are in the business of fighting the Fed.

    More good news: the ADP private payroll numbers came in up 43,000 jobs, compared to a loss of 39,000 jobs in the previous month. Analysts only expected to see a gain of 20,000 jobs, so once again, the U.S. economy seems to be powering along better than expected -- and Friday's unemployment number may be a bit better in turn.

    Factory orders grew 2.1%, again compared to a decline of 0.5% in the previous month and expectations of only 1.6% growth.

    From here, get ready for  inflation  ahead. That means a weaker dollar and stronger global  currencies: a stronger yen, euro, ruble, rand, real, rupee and effectively everything but the yuan.

    It also means stronger commodity prices. Good news for  commodities  and commodity stocks. 

    Disclosure: no position
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