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Steve Hach is the Senior Editor at ValuEngine.com, a Newtown, Pennsylvania-based stock valuation and forecast service. ValuEngine utilizes Ivy League financial research as the basis for its coverage of more than 7000 US, Japanese, and Canadian, and other foreign stocks. Hach utilizes... More
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  • ValuEngine Weekly February 4, 2011 0 comments
    Feb 4, 2011 12:59 PM | about stocks: CCME, MERC, FCX, TRX, URRE, UFS, VALE, ABX, IP, KS, VRS, POT, ZOLT, DNN

     

     

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    February 4, 2011
    The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools available from ValuEngine. In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service, sign up now for a two-week free trial at www.valuengine.com!

    .

    ATTENTION Investors and Finance Professionals:
    If you are reading this you should
    sign up for ValuEngine's award-winning stock valuation and forecast service at the low price of $19.95/month! 
    NO OBLIGATION, Two Week FREE TRIAL!

    CLICK HERE!

    If the tables in this email do not display properly, please CLICK HERE to download the newsletter.

    Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE.

    EDITOR'S NOTE:   There will be no Free Weekly Newsletter published next week.  Our next Free Weekly Newsletter will be published on February 18, 2011.  You can receive ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier's market analysis by subscribing to his Free Daily Four-in-Four Newsletter HERE.

     

    VALUATION WARNING:  Our models find that overvaluation is approaching levels typically seen when a market correction is imminent. Overvalued stocks now make up 65% of our universe and almost 33% of the universe is calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more.  ALL sectors are now calculated to be overvalued.

     

    Bonus for Readers
    --Free Individual Stock Report for Weekly Newsletter Subscribers

     As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are now offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Reports.  

      This week's free download is our report on China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (CCME, $CCME) China MediaExpress claims to be China's largest television advertising operator.  The company generates revenue by selling advertisements on its network of television displays installed on over 18,000 express buses originating in thirteen of China's most prosperous regions. These regions include the five municipalities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Chongqing and eight economically prosperous provinces, namely Guangdong, Jiangsu, Fujian, Sichuan, Hebei, Anhui, Hubei and Shandong which generate nearly half of China's GDP.

       China MediaExpress was the Business Services Sector short pick for our ValuEngine Forecast Model MNS Newsletter for January.  After the initial selection and subsequent re-balance, the stock made some gains and looked like a loser for the short side.  But since January 28th, the stock has been on a downward slide and is currently showing a whopping 43% gain for the portfolio.  Several analysts have downgraded the stock amidst allegations that the company has engaged in "pump and dump" activity designed to enrich its management at the expense of investors.  This stock has been extremely volatile and for the moment the shorts are certainly having their way.

       ValuEngine has issued a SELL recommendation for China MediaExpress on Feb. 04, 2011. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that China MediaExpress has the probability to UNDERPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits UNATTRACTIVE volatility.

       Based on available data as of Feb. 04, 2011, we believe that CCME should be trading at $15.74. This makes CCME 29.55% undervalued. Fair Value indicates what we believe the stock should be trading at today if the stock market were perfectly efficient and everything traded at its true worth. For CCME, we base this on actual earnings per Fair Value indicates what we believe the stock should be trading at today if the stock market were perfectly efficient and everything traded at its true worth. For CCME, we base this on actual earnings per share (NYSEARCA:EPS) for the previous four quarters of $2.54, forecasted EPS for the next four quarters of $2.88, and correlations to the 30- year Treasury bond yield of 4.66%.

      Subscribers can check out the latest figures on China MediaExpress from our models HERE. 

      Not a ValuEngine Premium Website member?  Then please consider signing up for our no obligation, two-week free trial today. 

    Weekly Subscribers can download a FREE Detailed Valuation Report on CCME HERE.

    If you have not subscribed and want to be able to receive a FREE $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Report, you can subscribe to our Free Weekly Newsletter HERE.

    With the ValuEngine Forecast Model Market Neutral Strategy Newsletter, you can run your own portfolio like a hedge fund to manage risk and profit in any market environment.

    Click HERE or on the Image Below to Sign Up for the ValuEngine Forecast Model MNS Newsletter

     

    ValuEngine Index Overview
    Index
    Week Open
    Thurs. Close
    Change
    % Change
    YTD
    DJIA
    11824.46 12062.3 237.84 2.01% 4.08%
    NASDAQ
    2693.3 2753.88 60.58 2.25% 3.90%
    RUSSELL 2000
    778.4 798.63 20.23 2.60% 2.00%
    S&P 500
    1276.5 1307.1 30.6 2.40% 3.83%
    ValuEngine Market Overview
    Summary of VE Stock Universe
    Stocks Undervalued
    34.91%
    Stocks Overvalued
    65.09%
    Stocks Undervalued by 20%
    15.26%
    Stocks Overvalued by 20%
    32.85%

    .

    ValuEngine Sector Overview
    Sector
    Change
    MTD
    YTD
    Valuation
    Last 12-MReturn
    P/E Ratio
    Oils-Energy -0.13% 0.44% 6.05% 36.37% overvalued 43.70% 46.66
    Basic Materials 0.85% 0.12% -1.30% 23.12% overvalued 58.05% 39.26
    Multi-Sector Conglomerates 0.14% 0.63% 4.88% 16.55% overvalued 40.37% 36.00
    Industrial Products 0.02% 0.46% 3.34% 16.33% overvalued 35.28% 33.16
    Business Services 0.07% 0.34% 2.43% 16.11% overvalued 22.47% 33.71
    Auto-Tires-Trucks 0.16% -2.39% -2.05% 15.04% overvalued 36.72% 19.71
    Computer and Technology 0.16% 0.95% 5.00% 14.86% overvalued 42.76% 38.33
    Transportation -0.23% -0.97% -1.82% 13.76% overvalued 31.45% 28.10
    Aerospace -0.44% -0.08% 4.41% 12.95% overvalued 38.85% 19.30
    Retail-Wholesale 1.42% 0.81% -0.77% 10.56% overvalued 32.04% 27.56
    Finance 0.10% -0.19% 1.49% 10.35% overvalued 22.34% 28.18
    Utilities -0.08% -0.32% 0.61% 9.41% overvalued 18.88% 20.76
    Consumer Discretionary 0.05% 0.28% 0.98% 8.13% overvalued 26.46% 31.02
    Consumer Staples 0.29% 0.52% -0.52% 8.02% overvalued 20.78% 24.69
    Construction -0.93% -1.05% 3.48% 4.28% overvalued 16.51% 29.89
    Medical 0.33% 0.13% 2.85% 0.81% overvalued 19.59% 36.00
      Sector Talk-- Basic Materials

     Below, we present top-five lists for the Basic Materials Sector from our Institutional software package (Pending:VEI).  These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day. 

    Top-Five Basic Materials Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

    Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
    MERC MERCER INTL SBI 8.43 -12.31 178.05
    FCX FREEPT MC COP-B 56.89 -37.4 -18.13
    TRE TANZANIAN ROYAL 6.82     N/A 73.98
    URRE URANIUM RES INC 3.03     N/A 288.46
    UFS DOMTAR CORP 88.95 9.63 68.63

    Top-Five Basic Materials Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

    Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
    FCX FREEPT MC COP-B 56.89 -37.4 -18.13
    MERC MERCER INTL SBI 8.43 -12.31 178.05
    VALE VALE RIO DO-ADR 34.7 13.63 31.44
    UFS DOMTAR CORP 88.95 9.63 68.63
    ABX BARRICK GOLD CP 48.67 -6.16 36.87

    Top-Five Basic Materials Stocks--Composite Score

    Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
    MERC MERCER INTL SBI 8.43 -12.31 178.05
    UFS DOMTAR CORP 88.95 9.63 68.63
    ABX BARRICK GOLD CP 48.67 -6.16 36.87
    IP INTL PAPER 29.26 -11.52 31.21
    FCX FREEPT MC COP-B 56.89 -37.4 -18.13

    Top-Five Basic Materials Stocks--Most Overvalued

    Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
    KS KAPSTONE PAPER 17.33 140.88 98.06
    VRS VERSO PAPER CP 5.23 113.9 62.93
    POT POTASH SASK 182.17 105.38 69.56
    ZOLT ZOLTEK COS INC 11.65 102.85 51.5
    DNN DENISON MINES 3.92 91.92 186.13

      Subscribers can check out the latest valuation, forecast, and ratings figures on the Basic Materials Sector from our Models HERE.

     Not a ValuEngine Premium Website member?  Then please consider signing up for our no obligation, two-week free trial today.   ValuEngine's award-winning stock Valuation and Forecast Models continue to provide investors with accurate, objective, and timely information on US stocks, ADRs, and foreign equities that trade on US markets.  Over the last few months, our stock picks have provided clients with many winners in both up and down periods.  Please consider signing up for our no obligation, two-week free trial today.

    Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE.

      Currently, you research more than 400 ADRs and other foreign stocks with ValuEngine's software and website! 

    We also offer research reports on more than 700 Canadian Companies on our Research Report Web Page.

     

     

     

     An archive of this weekly newsletter is available here.

     
     
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    Themes: basic materials Stocks: CCME, MERC, FCX, TRX, URRE, UFS, VALE, ABX, IP, KS, VRS, POT, ZOLT, DNN
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