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ValuEngine Weekly March 11, 2011

|Includes:ACAS, ACTG, AIG, AMP, BAM, C, CNO, FAF, FBP, LAB, MGI, MPG-OLD, Radian Group, Inc. (RDN), SFE, UBS, WPG

 

 

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March 11, 2011
The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools available from ValuEngine. In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service, sign up now for a two-week free trial at www.valuengine.com!
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VALUATION WATCH:  The recent market downturn has lowered overall universe and sector valuation figures.  Overvalued stocks now make up less than 58% of our universe and less than 25% of the universe is calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more.  15 of 16 sectors are now calculated to be overvalued, but these levels are greatly reduced with only 3 sectors calculated to be overvalued by 10% or more.  

Valuation at these levels is considered to be within "normal" range and therefore the Valuation Watch is OFF.

  Bonus for Readers
--Free Individual Stock Report for Weekly Newsletter Subscribers

 As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are now offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Reports.  

  Radian Group Inc (RDN, $RDN) is the parent company of Radian Guaranty Inc. The company provides private mortgage insurance and risk management services to mortgage lenders nationwide; these services increase home ownership opportunities by helping people to buy homes with down payments of less than 20 percent. Private mortgage insurance protects lenders from default-related losses on residential first mortgages and facilitates the sale of low down-payment mortgage loans in the secondary market.

   A recent screen for top-ranked one-month forecast stocks with market prices in excess of $3.00 and average volume in excess of 100k shares/day found  Radian Group Inc at the top of the list.   ValuEngine has issued a STRONG BUY recommendation for  Radian Group Inc on Mar. 11, 2011. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that  Radian Group Inc has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE market valuation, market/book ratio and expected EPS growth.

   Based on available data, we believe that RDN should be trading at $18.61. This makes RDN 61.95% undervalued. Fair Value indicates what we believe the stock should be trading at today if the stock market were perfectly efficient and everything traded at its true worth. For RDN, we base this on actual earnings per share (NYSEARCA:EPS) for the previous four quarters of -$3.40, forecasted EPS for the next four quarters of -$0.50, and correlations to the 30- year Treasury bond yield of 4.54%.

Subscribers can check out the latest figures on Radian Group Inc from our models HERE. 

Weekly Subscribers can download a FREE Detailed Valuation Report on Radian Group HERE.

If you have not subscribed and want to be able to receive a FREE $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Report, you can subscribe to our Free Weekly Newsletter HERE.

 

ValuEngine Index Overview
Index
Week Open
Thurs. Close
Change
% Change
YTD
DJIA
12171.09 11984.6 -186.49 -1.53% 3.52%
NASDAQ
2793.19 2701.02 -92.17 -3.30% 1.82%
RUSSELL 2000
825.64 799.53 -26.11 -3.16% 2.03%
S&P 500
1322.72 1295.11 -27.61 -2.09% 2.98%
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ValuEngine Market Overview
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued
43.02%
Stocks Overvalued
56.98%
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
16.47%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%
24.77%
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.

ValuEngine Sector Overview
Sector
Change
MTD
YTD
Valuation
Last 12-MReturn
P/E Ratio
Oils-Energy -4.63% -3.62% 5.02% 28.81% overvalued 37.41% 44.02
Multi-Sector Conglomerates -2.10% -0.09% 1.42% 11.93% overvalued 27.36% 26.48
Transportation -1.89% 0.90% -2.73% 10.02% overvalued 19.29% 20.77
Aerospace -2.02% 1.58% 13.80% 9.88% overvalued 25.48% 18.15
Consumer Discretionary -1.83% -0.52% 2.56% 9.04% overvalued 17.45% 32.10
Basic Materials -5.28% -4.26% -5.01% 8.96% overvalued 48.14% 42.79
Utilities -1.74% -0.41% 0.74% 8.31% overvalued 14.34% 21.29
Consumer Staples -1.63% -0.35% -0.77% 6.78% overvalued 13.56% 20.78
Finance -2.36% -1.49% 1.76% 6.72% overvalued 10.36% 26.01
Retail-Wholesale 0.05% 1.18% 2.18% 6.50% overvalued 21.26% 24.31
Industrial Products -3.21% -0.38% 2.49% 6.01% overvalued 24.71% 34.35
Construction -3.32% -1.24% -1.36% 5.97% overvalued 5.93% 34.37
Business Services -2.15% -0.57% 1.47% 5.70% overvalued 12.22% 48.70
Auto-Tires-Trucks -2.75% -0.87% -5.31% 5.65% overvalued 33.56% 18.95
Computer and Technology -3.63% -1.68% 7.54% 4.91% overvalued 29.04% 39.71
Medical -1.87% 0.55% 8.38% 1.72% undervalued 13.45% 37.33
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  Sector Talk--Finance

  Below, we present top-five lists for the Finance Sector from our Institutional software package (Pending:VEI).  These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day. 

Top-Five Finance Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
RDN RADIAN GRP INC 7.08 -61.95 -38.75
FBP FIRST BNCRP P R 4.46 -75 -86.48
FAF FIRST AMER FINL 16.08 2.01     N/A
BAM BROOKFIELD ASST 31.27 37.69 30.4
AIG AMER INTL GRP 36.48 -75 20.12
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Top-Five Finance Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
RDN RADIAN GRP INC 7.08 -61.95 -38.75
BAM BROOKFIELD ASST 31.27 37.69 30.4
AIG AMER INTL GRP 36.48 -75 20.12
FAF FIRST AMER FINL 16.08 2.01     N/A
ACTG ACACIA RES-TECH 34.22 47.16 208.57
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Top-Five Finance Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
ACAS AMER CAP LTD 9 -19.28 92.72
UBS UBS AG 18.61 -43.41 23.65
SFE SAFEGUARD SCTFC 18.9 -75 43.62
C CITIGROUP INC 4.54 -57 14.65
AMP AMERIPRISE FINL 61.7 -8.28 46.1
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Top-Five Finance Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
GRT GLIMCHER REALTY 8.84 300 104.16
MGI MONEYGRAM INTL 3.16 300 0.32
MPG MPG OFFICE TRST 3.7 282.63 52.26
LAB LABRANCHE & CO 3.99 137.5 -27.98
CNO CNO FINL GRP 7.13 128.22 14.45
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  Subscribers can check out the latest valuation, forecast, and ratings figures on the Finance Sector from our Models HERE.

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Stocks: RDN, FBP, FAF, BAM, AIG, ACTG, ACAS, UBS, SFE, C, AMP, WPG, MGI, MPG-OLD, LAB, CNO