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Double Dip in Housing is Official, Predicted by ValuEngine.com Chief Market Strategist Suttmeier

|Includes:AMREP Corporation (AXR), BZH, CAA, CHCI, DHI, HOV, KBH, LEN, MDC, MHO, MTH, NVR, PHM, RYL, TOL

Go to ValuEngine.com
May 31, 2011


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House Blown Down

Double Dip in Housing is Official, Predicted by ValuEngine.com Chief Market Strategist Suttmeier

   The latest Case-Shiller data--released today, confirms that housing prices in the U.S. are suffering from a double dip.  Home prices fell 4.2% in the first quarter of 2011 and have a hit a new post-bubble low.   To make matters worse, 60% of the component cities in the Case-Shiller index posted new lows in March.  Only Washington DC and Seattle posted increases in prices.  Overall, prices are now at levels last seen in 2002.  Analysts have found that the end of the home buyer tax credit last year removed much-needed support for the market.

  Our Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier has been predicting this event for quite some time now.  His analysis of the housing and banking sectors has been quite accurate with warnings about the frailty of the market and the bubble dating back to March 2007.  Below, we provide the latest ValuEngine data on major home builders from our VEI software package.  As you can see, not a single builder is rated a buy right now.

Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation(%)
VE Rating
Last 12-M Retn(%)
5-Yr Retn(%)
Forecast 1-Month Retn(%)
Forecast 1-Yr Retn(%)
P/E Ratio
AXR
AMREP CORP
9.5
-38.51
1
-30.45
-48.86
-1.44
-20.72
135.71
BZH
BEAZER HOMES
4.12
-69.55
3
-19.37
-52.08
0.79
-0.95
   
N/A
CHCI
COMSTOCK HMBLDG
1.11
   
N/A
1
-49.77
-54.41
-4.92
-23.22
   
N/A
DHI
D R HORTON INC
11.98
-19.37
3
-1.56
-19.93
0.44
-3.86
   
N/A
HOV
HOVNANIAN ENTRP
2.7
-75
3
-57.48
-54.05
0.9
1.72
   
N/A
KBH
KB HOME
12.15
-48.2
1
-15.68
-32.53
-10.23
-44.25
   
N/A
LEN
LENNAR CORP -A
18.9
-21.23
2
8.62
-21.96
-0.75
-7.69
50.44
MDC
MDC HLDGS
26.97
-28.45
3
-11.78
-15.64
0.59
-1.85
   
N/A
MHO
M/I HOMES INC
12.56
-33.58
2
0.88
-23.05
0.05
-7.75
   
N/A
MTH
MERITAGE HOMES
24.51
-8.38
2
13.26
-16.58
0.33
-5.61
   
N/A
NVR
NVR INC
745.17
-2.5
3
7.94
-0.2
1.38
2.11
24.91
PHM
PULTE GROUP ONC
8.2
-53.5
3
-26.52
-29.41
0.6
0.77
   
N/A
RYL
RYLAND GRP INC
17.78
-28.78
2
-3.53
-26.04
-0.21
-8.17
   
N/A
SPF
STANDARD PAC
3.92
-59.15
3
-21.44
-40.49
0.54
-1.51
63.81
TOL
TOLL BROTHERS
21.27
0.57
3
0.71
-7.98
0.38
-4.51
   
N/A

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Market Indices Data
Index
Latest
Change
YTD
Dow Jones
12,505.10
63.54
8.01%
NASDAQ Composite
2,820.67
23.81
6.33%
Russell 2000
844.60
8.34
7.78%
S&P 500
1,338.38
7.28
6.42%

 

ValuEngine Market Overview
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued
47.84%
Stocks Overvalued
52.16%
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
19.64%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%
21.91%
ValuEngine Sector Overview
Sector
Change
MTD
YTD
Valuation
Last 12-MReturn
P/E Ratio
Utilities
0.27%
-1.47%
5.90%
9.44% overvalued
25.96%
23.60
Oils-Energy
0.97%
-6.50%
2.85%
9.43% overvalued
46.49%
48.73
Multi-Sector Conglomerates
0.87%
-4.32%
2.71%
9.31% overvalued
31.96%
27.61
Consumer Staples
0.73%
-4.07%
-5.00%
6.14% overvalued
20.04%
21.22
Business Services
0.26%
-3.13%
4.08%
5.57% overvalued
15.48%
37.21
Retail-Wholesale
0.43%
-0.70%
6.87%
4.66% overvalued
23.94%
35.29
Industrial Products
0.39%
-6.23%
2.02%
4.31% overvalued
28.64%
31.96
Computer and Technology
0.64%
-3.41%
9.96%
3.50% overvalued
35.43%
44.99
Medical
0.49%
0.03%
16.29%
3.21% overvalued
22.22%
35.11
Transportation
0.39%
-3.83%
-1.79%
2.78% overvalued
20.15%
20.08
Finance
0.54%
-0.79%
2.64%
1.61% overvalued
9.11%
25.11
Aerospace
0.53%
-1.64%
11.09%
1.58% overvalued
25.44%
18.54
Auto-Tires-Trucks
1.07%
-6.32%
-7.40%
1.58% overvalued
49.03%
19.27
Consumer Discretionary
0.27%
-2.21%
5.00%
1.53% overvalued
16.23%
29.44
Basic Materials
1.42%
-4.52%
-4.09%
0.27% undervalued
48.48%
24.35
Construction
0.79%
-3.98%
-4.19%
3.58% undervalued
3.92%
49.15

 

     

 
 
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