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Steve Hach is the Senior Editor at ValuEngine.com, a Newtown, Pennsylvania-based stock valuation and forecast service. ValuEngine utilizes Ivy League financial research as the basis for its coverage of more than 7000 US, Japanese, and Canadian, and other foreign stocks. Hach utilizes... More
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  • Double Dip in Housing is Official, Predicted by ValuEngine.com Chief Market Strategist Suttmeier 0 comments
    May 31, 2011 3:36 PM | about stocks: AXR, BZH, CHCI, DHI, HOV, KBH, LEN, MDC, MHO, MTH, NVR, PHM, RYL, SPF, TOL

    Go to ValuEngine.com
    May 31, 2011


    Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE
    House Blown Down

    Double Dip in Housing is Official, Predicted by ValuEngine.com Chief Market Strategist Suttmeier

       The latest Case-Shiller data--released today, confirms that housing prices in the U.S. are suffering from a double dip.  Home prices fell 4.2% in the first quarter of 2011 and have a hit a new post-bubble low.   To make matters worse, 60% of the component cities in the Case-Shiller index posted new lows in March.  Only Washington DC and Seattle posted increases in prices.  Overall, prices are now at levels last seen in 2002.  Analysts have found that the end of the home buyer tax credit last year removed much-needed support for the market.

      Our Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier has been predicting this event for quite some time now.  His analysis of the housing and banking sectors has been quite accurate with warnings about the frailty of the market and the bubble dating back to March 2007.  Below, we provide the latest ValuEngine data on major home builders from our VEI software package.  As you can see, not a single builder is rated a buy right now.

    Ticker
    Name
    Mkt Price
    Valuation(%)
    VE Rating
    Last 12-M Retn(%)
    5-Yr Retn(%)
    Forecast 1-Month Retn(%)
    Forecast 1-Yr Retn(%)
    P/E Ratio
    AXR
    AMREP CORP
    9.5
    -38.51
    1
    -30.45
    -48.86
    -1.44
    -20.72
    135.71
    BZH
    BEAZER HOMES
    4.12
    -69.55
    3
    -19.37
    -52.08
    0.79
    -0.95
       
    N/A
    CHCI
    COMSTOCK HMBLDG
    1.11
       
    N/A
    1
    -49.77
    -54.41
    -4.92
    -23.22
       
    N/A
    DHI
    D R HORTON INC
    11.98
    -19.37
    3
    -1.56
    -19.93
    0.44
    -3.86
       
    N/A
    HOV
    HOVNANIAN ENTRP
    2.7
    -75
    3
    -57.48
    -54.05
    0.9
    1.72
       
    N/A
    KBH
    KB HOME
    12.15
    -48.2
    1
    -15.68
    -32.53
    -10.23
    -44.25
       
    N/A
    LEN
    LENNAR CORP -A
    18.9
    -21.23
    2
    8.62
    -21.96
    -0.75
    -7.69
    50.44
    MDC
    MDC HLDGS
    26.97
    -28.45
    3
    -11.78
    -15.64
    0.59
    -1.85
       
    N/A
    MHO
    M/I HOMES INC
    12.56
    -33.58
    2
    0.88
    -23.05
    0.05
    -7.75
       
    N/A
    MTH
    MERITAGE HOMES
    24.51
    -8.38
    2
    13.26
    -16.58
    0.33
    -5.61
       
    N/A
    NVR
    NVR INC
    745.17
    -2.5
    3
    7.94
    -0.2
    1.38
    2.11
    24.91
    PHM
    PULTE GROUP ONC
    8.2
    -53.5
    3
    -26.52
    -29.41
    0.6
    0.77
       
    N/A
    RYL
    RYLAND GRP INC
    17.78
    -28.78
    2
    -3.53
    -26.04
    -0.21
    -8.17
       
    N/A
    SPF
    STANDARD PAC
    3.92
    -59.15
    3
    -21.44
    -40.49
    0.54
    -1.51
    63.81
    TOL
    TOLL BROTHERS
    21.27
    0.57
    3
    0.71
    -7.98
    0.38
    -4.51
       
    N/A

    Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE

    Market Indices Data
    Index
    Latest
    Change
    YTD
    Dow Jones
    12,505.10
    63.54
    8.01%
    NASDAQ Composite
    2,820.67
    23.81
    6.33%
    Russell 2000
    844.60
    8.34
    7.78%
    S&P 500
    1,338.38
    7.28
    6.42%

     

    ValuEngine Market Overview
    Summary of VE Stock Universe
    Stocks Undervalued
    47.84%
    Stocks Overvalued
    52.16%
    Stocks Undervalued by 20%
    19.64%
    Stocks Overvalued by 20%
    21.91%
    ValuEngine Sector Overview
    Sector
    Change
    MTD
    YTD
    Valuation
    Last 12-MReturn
    P/E Ratio
    Utilities
    0.27%
    -1.47%
    5.90%
    9.44% overvalued
    25.96%
    23.60
    Oils-Energy
    0.97%
    -6.50%
    2.85%
    9.43% overvalued
    46.49%
    48.73
    Multi-Sector Conglomerates
    0.87%
    -4.32%
    2.71%
    9.31% overvalued
    31.96%
    27.61
    Consumer Staples
    0.73%
    -4.07%
    -5.00%
    6.14% overvalued
    20.04%
    21.22
    Business Services
    0.26%
    -3.13%
    4.08%
    5.57% overvalued
    15.48%
    37.21
    Retail-Wholesale
    0.43%
    -0.70%
    6.87%
    4.66% overvalued
    23.94%
    35.29
    Industrial Products
    0.39%
    -6.23%
    2.02%
    4.31% overvalued
    28.64%
    31.96
    Computer and Technology
    0.64%
    -3.41%
    9.96%
    3.50% overvalued
    35.43%
    44.99
    Medical
    0.49%
    0.03%
    16.29%
    3.21% overvalued
    22.22%
    35.11
    Transportation
    0.39%
    -3.83%
    -1.79%
    2.78% overvalued
    20.15%
    20.08
    Finance
    0.54%
    -0.79%
    2.64%
    1.61% overvalued
    9.11%
    25.11
    Aerospace
    0.53%
    -1.64%
    11.09%
    1.58% overvalued
    25.44%
    18.54
    Auto-Tires-Trucks
    1.07%
    -6.32%
    -7.40%
    1.58% overvalued
    49.03%
    19.27
    Consumer Discretionary
    0.27%
    -2.21%
    5.00%
    1.53% overvalued
    16.23%
    29.44
    Basic Materials
    1.42%
    -4.52%
    -4.09%
    0.27% undervalued
    48.48%
    24.35
    Construction
    0.79%
    -3.98%
    -4.19%
    3.58% undervalued
    3.92%
    49.15

     

         

     
     
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    Stocks: AXR, BZH, CHCI, DHI, HOV, KBH, LEN, MDC, MHO, MTH, NVR, PHM, RYL, SPF, TOL
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