VALUATION WARNING: Our models find that overvaluation is at levels typically seen when market pullbacks occur. Overvalued stocks now make up 75% of our universe and 40.6% of the universe is calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. 15 of 16 sectors are calculated to be overvalued.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Index | Week Open | Thurs. Close | Change | % Change | YTD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
DJIA | 14795.79 | 15460.92 | 665.13 | 4.50% | 17.93% |
NASDAQ | 3326.38 | 3493.81 | 167.43 | 5.03% | 15.23% |
RUSSELL 2000 | 1007.7 | 1033.18 | 25.48 | 2.53% | 21.78% |
S&P 500 | 1634.2 | 1675.02 | 40.82 | 2.50% | 17.30% |
Summary of VE Stock Universe |
Stocks Undervalued | 24.96% |
---|---|
Stocks Overvalued | 75.04% |
Stocks Undervalued by 20% | 10.06% |
Stocks Overvalued by 20% | 40.60% |
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector | Change | MTD | YTD | Valuation | Last 12-MReturn | P/E Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aerospace | 0.37% | 3.56% | 24.77% | 20.13% overvalued | 28.52% | 17.76 |
Auto-Tires-Trucks | 2.13% | 6.20% | 36.18% | 24.94% overvalued | 40.54% | 17.81 |
Basic Materials | 2.29% | 4.23% | 0.79% | 11.39% undervalued | -25.78% | 19.01 |
Business Services | 0.85% | 3.88% | 69.32% | 16.23% overvalued | 18.79% | 23.28 |
Computer and Technology | 1.35% | 4.94% | 23.78% | 20.32% overvalued | 17.90% | 30 |
Construction | 1.71% | 3.79% | 27.75% | 12.69% overvalued | 33.27% | 24.36 |
Consumer Discretionary | 0.70% | 3.99% | 27.60% | 24.40% overvalued | 25.43% | 24.21 |
Consumer Staples | 0.96% | 3.37% | 14.61% | 21.64% overvalued | 15.09% | 21.3 |
Finance | 1.05% | 5.22% | 23.04% | 17.97% overvalued | 16.92% | 17.65 |
Industrial Products | 1.32% | 4.58% | 25.47% | 17.14% overvalued | 23.47% | 20.21 |
Medical | 0.97% | 3.69% | 199.17% | 16.02% overvalued | 15.21% | 25.01 |
Multi-Sector Conglomerates | 1.93% | 3.75% | 5.43% | 11.49% overvalued | 15.17% | 15.81 |
Oils-Energy | 1.32% | 3.58% | 11.46% | 4.23% overvalued | 5.38% | 27.46 |
Retail-Wholesale | 0.88% | 4.49% | 31.39% | 25.60% overvalued | 34.85% | 22.72 |
Transportation | 1.15% | 2.56% | 23.40% | 16.07% overvalued | 18.75% | 21.48 |
Utilities | 1.20% | 3.81% | 12.76% | 8.65% overvalued | 10.59% | 20.41 |
Below, we present the latest data on leading Basic Materials Sector stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.
Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns
Ticker | Name | Mkt Price | Valuation(%) | Last 12-M Retn(%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
FBR | FIBRIA CELULOSE | 11.34 | -4.44 | 56.85 |
SLCA | US SILICA HOLDI | 22.29 | -7.07 | 119.39 |
PPP | PRIMERO MINING | 4.54 | -5.16 | 76.65 |
KGC | KINROSS GOLD | 4.95 | -64.84 | -37.1 |
ABX | BARRICK GOLD CP | 15.22 | -60.72 | -56.45 |
Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns
Ticker | Name | Mkt Price | Valuation(%) | Last 12-M Retn(%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
FBR | FIBRIA CELULOSE | 11.34 | -4.44 | 56.85 |
SLCA | US SILICA HOLDI | 22.29 | -7.07 | 119.39 |
PPP | PRIMERO MINING | 4.54 | -5.16 | 76.65 |
KGC | KINROSS GOLD | 4.95 | -64.84 | -37.1 |
ABX | BARRICK GOLD CP | 15.22 | -60.72 | -56.45 |
Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Composite Score
Ticker | Name | Mkt Price | Valuation(%) | Last 12-M Retn(%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
SLCA | US SILICA HOLDI | 22.29 | -7.07 | 119.39 |
PPP | PRIMERO MINING | 4.54 | -5.16 | 76.65 |
KGC | KINROSS GOLD | 4.95 | -64.84 | -37.1 |
FBR | FIBRIA CELULOSE | 11.34 | -4.44 | 56.85 |
ABX | BARRICK GOLD CP | 15.22 | -60.72 | -56.45 |
Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued
Ticker | Name | Mkt Price | Valuation(%) | Last 12-M Retn(%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
CHMT | CHEMTURA CORP | 22.13 | 300 | 57.51 |
BHP | BHP BILLITN LTD | 61.79 | 253.4 | -2.51 |
AXLL | AXIALL CORP | 42.76 | 68.55 | 57.03 |
BZ | BOISE INC | 8.8 | 49.5 | 28.28 |
CDE | COEUR DALENE MI | 12.21 | 47.64 | -22.38 |
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.