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ValuEngine.com Rates the Home Builders

|Includes:AMREP Corporation (AXR), BZH, CAA, CHCI, DHI, HOV, KBH, LEN, MDC, MHO, MTH, NVR, PHM, RYL, TOL

ValuEngine.com Rates the Home Builders

The housing market continues to struggle as news today indicates that new-home sales fell during July to the lowest level in five months. Sales decreased by 0.7% on a monthly basis to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 298,000. THis is the worst number since February. Sales figures for JUne were also revised downward to a bigger decline--2.9% vs the 1% originally reported. The annual rate of 298,000 is far below the "healthy" rate of @750,000 sales annually.

The housing market is still being battered by tight credit, increased lending standards, and a wave of foreclosures, short sales, etc. New Homes face particular problems because existing homes as well as those being sold under duress are providing cheaper alternatives for those able to secure financing. 

Below, we provide our Critical VE data points for the Home Builders*

 

 

Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation(%)
VE Rating
Last 12-M Retn(%)
Forecast 1-Yr Retn(%)
1-Yr Chance of Gain(%)
P/E Ratio
AXR
AMREP CORP
7.31
-54.64
1
-37.04
-19.42
42.95
66.45
BZH
BEAZER HOMES
1.5
-75
4
-59.46
6.11
52.23
   
N/A
CHCI
COMSTOCK HMBLDG
1.04
   
N/A
2
-32.9
-10.92
46.59
   
N/A
DHI
D R HORTON INC
8.95
-45.28
3
-11.65
0.58
50.42
   
N/A
HOV
HOVNANIAN ENTRP
1.48
-75
3
-61.86
1.26
50.54
   
N/A
KBH
KB HOME
5.43
-75
5
-45.54
218.56
100
   
N/A
LEN
LENNAR CORP -A
12.71
-57.79
3
0.39
3.21
52.27
40.94
MDC
MDC HLDGS
16.86
-56
3
-33.78
3.05
53.36
   
N/A
MHO
M/I HOMES INC
6.21
-69.09
3
-35.91
-0.07
49.96
   
N/A
MTH
MERITAGE HOMES
15.44
-45.41
2
-9.97
-5.63
46.16
   
N/A
NVR
NVR INC
597.17
-25.56
3
-4.54
2.94
53.4
22.38
PHM
PULTE GROUP ONC
3.76
-75
3
-53.23
4.49
53.09
   
N/A
RYL
RYLAND GRP INC
9.55
-66.44
3
-40.54
2.6
52.02
   
N/A
SPF
STANDARD PAC
2.22
-75
3
-36.75
2.67
51.26
932.25
TOL
TOLL BROTHERS
14.9
-37.24
3
-10.08
-1.24
48.67
   
N/A
Click to enlarge

 

*NOTE:  KBH recently had some adjustments to EPS which has skewed the Forecast Model's calculations.  This sort of extreme forecast is an anomaly. ValuEngine Ratings cover approximately 6,000 stocks. ValuEngine's stock recommendations are based on the proprietary ValuEngine Forecast Model calculations for each individual equity. A stock is rated Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Sell, Strong Sell based on the One Year Forecast Return (1YFR). The breakdown for each rating is as follows:  Strong Buy: More than +12% 1YFR,  Buy: Between +5% and +12% 1YFR, Hold: Between -5% and +5% 1YFR, Sell: Between -12% and -5% 1YFR, Strong Sell: Less than -12% 1YFR. ValuEngine’s Valuation and Forecast data are derived from our proprietary quantitative models and consider numerous factors including: firm-specific variables like the Long-run EPS growth rate, the Duration of the Business-growth-cycle, the Volatility of EPS growth rate, the Systematic or beta risk of the firm, the Correlation between the firm's EPS and the interest rate environment, Dividend payout ratio, and Buffer earnings. Model calculations also include interest rate-related criteria as well as technical data such as short and long-term price reversal characteristics.

 

Market Indices Data
Index
Latest
Change
YTD
Dow Jones
11,052.00
197.31
-4.54%
NASDAQ Composite
2,398.64
53.26
-9.58%
Russell 2000
661.47
10.13
-15.59%
S&P 500
1,146.67
22.85
-8.82%
Click to enlarge

 

ValuEngine Market Overview
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued
88.89%
Stocks Overvalued
11.11%
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
63.14%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%
4.08%
Click to enlarge
ValuEngine Sector Overview
Sector
Change
MTD
YTD
Valuation
Last 12-MReturn
P/E Ratio
Utilities
0.06%
-8.28%
-6.34%
10.14% undervalued
9.58%
24.70
Transportation
-0.27%
-16.80%
-20.83%
17.30% undervalued
-4.08%
15.89
Consumer Staples
-0.43%
-12.66%
-17.03%
17.46% undervalued
5.01%
16.54
Basic Materials
0.27%
-14.05%
-18.76%
22.76% undervalued
30.64%
24.57
Retail-Wholesale
0.50%
-14.86%
-9.25%
23.09% undervalued
14.15%
21.85
Finance
-0.12%
-13.61%
-13.38%
23.37% undervalued
0.10%
22.71
Oils-Energy
-2.07%
-20.55%
-21.65%
23.95% undervalued
21.39%
45.00
Business Services
0.04%
-16.23%
-13.80%
24.65% undervalued
6.68%
20.61
Aerospace
0.93%
-13.42%
3.54%
24.69% undervalued
7.26%
18.54
Multi-Sector Conglomerates
-0.04%
-16.68%
-18.79%
25.52% undervalued
8.33%
20.43
Medical
-0.43%
-14.85%
-9.26%
27.85% undervalued
3.39%
27.10
Consumer Discretionary
-0.36%
-16.78%
-16.59%
28.16% undervalued
6.53%
29.62
Industrial Products
-0.02%
-17.06%
-17.90%
28.59% undervalued
11.56%
17.87
Computer and Technology
-0.09%
-17.23%
-15.15%
28.61% undervalued
8.56%
35.58
Construction
-1.00%
-19.34%
-29.25%
31.07% undervalued
-12.50%
37.55
Auto-Tires-Trucks
-0.47%
-24.13%
-33.63%
34.10% undervalued
6.39%
14.25
Click to enlarge

 

Stocks: AXR, BZH, CHCI, DHI, HOV, KBH, LEN, MDC, MHO, MTH, NVR, PHM, RYL, CAA, TOL