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Steve Hach is the Senior Editor at ValuEngine.com, a Newtown, Pennsylvania-based stock valuation and forecast service. ValuEngine utilizes Ivy League financial research as the basis for its coverage of more than 7000 US, Japanese, and Canadian, and other foreign stocks. Hach utilizes... More
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  • Consumer Discretionaries On Fire, Here's ValuEngine's Best 0 comments
    Nov 15, 2013 1:59 PM | about stocks: LYV, ELY, IKGH, PENN, TTWO, ESI, WU, IGT, DV, GTN, CMLS, EDMC, ZQK, FXS

    VALUATION WARNING: Our models find that overvaluation is at levels typically seen when market pullbacks occur. Overvalued stocks now make up 85% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 54 % of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. ALL sectors are calculated to be overvalued-15 of them by double digits.

    MARKET OVERVIEW

    Index

    Week Open

    Thurs. Close

    Change

    % Change

    YTD

    DJIA

    15759.28

    15876.2

    116.92

    0.74%

    21.15%

    NASDAQ

    3913.64

    3972.74

    59.1

    1.51%

    31.57%

    RUSSELL 2000

    1099.76

    1111.44

    11.68

    1.06%

    30.86%

    S&P 500

    1769.96

    1790.62

    20.66

    1.17%

    25.55%

     

     

    Summary of VE Stock Universe

     

     

    Stocks Undervalued

    15.00%

    Stocks Overvalued

    85.00%

    Stocks Undervalued by 20%

    6.55%

    Stocks Overvalued by 20%

    54.08%

    SECTOR OVERVIEW

    Sector

    Change

    MTD

    YTD

    Valuation

    Last 12-MReturn

    P/E Ratio

    Aerospace

    -0.55%

    2.93%

    36.36%

    30.47% overvalued

    48.36%

    17.56

    Auto-Tires-Trucks

    0.48%

    1.75%

    47.87%

    26.85% overvalued

    59.08%

    21.82

    Basic Materials

    0.32%

    -0.67%

    9.37%

    6.72% overvalued

    -23.45%

    21.15

    Business Services

    0.27%

    1.45%

    34.64%

    27.56% overvalued

    38.28%

    25.79

    Computer and Technology

    -0.41%

    1.44%

    39.36%

    33.15% overvalued

    38.16%

    31.3

    Construction

    0.46%

    1.98%

    42.13%

    19.47% overvalued

    37.21%

    25.74

    Consumer Discretionary

    0.38%

    1.04%

    39.16%

    33.65% overvalued

    45.33%

    27.54

    Consumer Staples

    0.72%

    1.40%

    28.46%

    23.43% overvalued

    26.20%

    23.45

    Finance

    0.36%

    0.11%

    25.84%

    22.60% overvalued

    18.72%

    17.81

    Industrial Products

    -0.17%

    0.72%

    40.71%

    28.94% overvalued

    42.13%

    24.12

    Medical

    0.13%

    1.93%

    37.83%

    24.86% overvalued

    38.49%

    28.5

    Multi-Sector Conglomerates

    0.85%

    0.02%

    15.44%

    33.08% overvalued

    25.04%

    20.72

    Oils-Energy

    0.58%

    0.37%

    27.99%

    18.52% overvalued

    17.35%

    26.65

    Retail-Wholesale

    -0.29%

    2.78%

    39.55%

    28.78% overvalued

    43.55%

    26.05

    Transportation

    0.04%

    1.78%

    32.84%

    28.22% overvalued

    44.38%

    20.92

    Utilities

    -0.18%

    -2.59%

    16.87%

    14.44% overvalued

    18.01%

    20.34

    ValuEngine Newsletters Latest Results

    VE Newsletter

    Current Month Total

    S&P 500

    Last Month Total

    S&P 500

    Since Inception

    S&P 500

    Forecast MNS

    -0.89

    4.01

    4.08

    1.99

    112.65

    88.45

    Dividend Stock

    0.08

    2.05

    2.83

    3.66

    10.5

    13.03

    Small Cap Stock

    -1.83

    2.63

    8.6

    2.78

    43.61

    25.8

    View

    3.61

    3.32

    6.56

    2.09

    85.63

    53.04

    Sector Talk-Consumer Discretionary

    Below, we present the latest data on leading Consumer Discretionary Sector stocks from our Institutional software package (Pending:VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

    Top-Five Consumer Discretionary Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

    Ticker

    Name

    Mkt Price

    Valuation(%)

    Last 12-M Retn(%)

    LYV

    LIVE NATION ENT

    17.91

    81.03

    111.45

    ELY

    CALLAWAY GOLF

    8.32

    19.09

    36.17

    IKGH

    IAO KUN GROUP

    3.2

    11.53

    -5.88

    PENN

    PENN NATL GAMNG

    14.5

    -59.06

    -61.06

    TTWO

    TAKE-TWO INTER

    18

    9.16

    56.93

    Top-Five Consumer Discretionary Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

    Ticker

    Name

    Mkt Price

    Valuation(%)

    Last 12-M Retn(%)

    LYV

    LIVE NATION ENT

    17.91

    81.03

    111.45

    ELY

    CALLAWAY GOLF

    8.32

    19.09

    36.17

    IKGH

    IAO KUN GROUP

    3.2

    11.53

    -5.88

    PENN

    PENN NATL GAMNG

    14.5

    -59.06

    -61.06

    TTWO

    TAKE-TWO INTER

    18

    9.16

    56.93

    Top-Five Consumer Discretionary Sector Stocks--Composite Score

    Ticker

    Name

    Mkt Price

    Valuation(%)

    Last 12-M Retn(%)

    TTWO

    TAKE-TWO INTER

    18

    9.16

    56.93

    ESI

    ITT EDUCATIONAL

    41.64

    12.99

    146.68

    WU

    WESTERN UNION

    17.45

    4.91

    37.73

    IGT

    INTL GAME TECH

    17.78

    2.99

    41.11

    DV

    DEVRY EDUCATION

    35.89

    5.83

    47.15

    Top-Five Consumer Discretionary Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

     

     

    Ticker

    Name

    Mkt Price

    Valuation(%)

    Last 12-M Retn(%)

    GTN

    GRAY TELEVSN

    10.28

    193.59

    384.91

    CMLS

    CUMULUS MEDIA

    6.41

    144.17

    182.38

    EDMC

    EDUCATION MANAG

    12.32

    140.73

    307.95

    ZQK

    QUIKSILVER INC

    8.99

    136.61

    153.95

    DISH

    DISH NETWORK CP

    51.06

    102.86

    49.87

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Themes: consumer discretionary Stocks: LYV, ELY, IKGH, PENN, TTWO, ESI, WU, IGT, DV, GTN, CMLS, EDMC, ZQK, FXS
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