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ValuEngine Rates Transports and Looks at Valuation

|Includes:AMZN, CAR, CHRW, CSX, FDX, GLNG, GOL, KSU, LFL, NAT, NM, NSC, RYAAY, TK, Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited (TNP), UNP, UPS

MARKET OVERVIEW

 

 

Index

started week

Thursday Close

3 day change

3 day change %

ytd

DJIA

12293.47

12287

-6.47

-0.05%

5.93%

NASDAQ

2613.51

2613.74

0.23

0.01%

-1.58%

RUSSELL 2000

745.61

744.98

-0.63

-0.08%

-4.93%

S&P 500

1265.02

1263.02

-2

-0.16%

0.28%

 

 

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued

73.03%

Stocks Overvalued

26.97%

Stocks Undervalued by 20%

39.95%

Stocks Overvalued by 20%

11.68%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SECTOR OVERVIEW

 

Sector

Change

MTD

YTD

Valuation

Last 12-MReturn

P/E Ratio

Aerospace

1.43%

0.53%

-1.99%

0.81% overvalued

-9.42%

15.65

Auto-Tires-Trucks

1.25%

-3.21%

-32.29%

15.42% undervalued

24.19%

22.26

Basic Materials

1.37%

-6.21%

-24.12%

10.28% undervalued

-26.84%

27.69

Business Services

1.02%

-0.12%

-6.96%

4.18% undervalued

1.67%

28.29

Computer and Technology

0.64%

-0.11%

-7.98%

2.67% overvalued

-7.40%

34.89

Construction

1.81%

2.34%

-19.13%

9.53% undervalued

-20.19%

41.33

Consumer Discretionary

1.01%

0.46%

-10.87%

9.80% undervalued

-7.02%

22.67

Consumer Staples

0.83%

2.37%

-11.32%

5.73% overvalued

-2.59%

19.07

Finance

0.86%

1.61%

-6.82%

10.11% overvalued

-7.15%

20.18

Industrial Products

1.12%

-0.52%

-11.01%

9.22% overvalued

-9.35%

23.4

Medical

1.01%

0.86%

-3.39%

10.05% overvalued

24.17%

28.5

Multi-Sector Conglomerates

1.13%

-0.64%

-13.66%

2.08% undervalued

-11.22%

14.51

Oils-Energy

0.91%

-2.43%

-16.95%

1.52% overvalued

-17.15%

34.87

Retail-Wholesale

0.62%

0.46%

-1.49%

3.55% overvalued

0.83%

21.84

Transportation

1.05%

-0.58%

-13.90%

6.07% undervalued

-17.57%

29.3

Utilities

0.69%

-0.31%

3.08%

9.33% overvalued

2.71%

24.37

Sector Talk—Transportation

Below, we present the latest data on leading Transportation Sector Stocks from our Institutional software package (Pending:VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.


 

Top-Five Transportation Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker

Name

Mkt Price

Valuation(%)

Last 12-M Retn(%)

TNP

TSAKOS EGY NAVG

4.91

21.72

-47.71

TK

TEEKAY CORP

26.86

119.02

-15.19

GOL

GOL LINHAS-ADR

6.67

39.93

-55.5

ZIP

ZIPCAR INC

13.32

-26.59

N/A

RYAAY

RYANAIR HLDGS

27.98

-30.18

-8.59


 


 

Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker

Name

Mkt Price

Valuation(%)

Last 12-M Retn(%)

NAT

NORDIC AMERICAN

11.74

-45.02

-51.92

NPNYY

NIPPON YUSEN KA

5.01

8.76

-43.77

UPS

UTD PARCEL SRVC

73.53

-14.25

4.18

CHRW

CH ROBINSON WWD

70.08

-15.19

-11.47

KSU

KANSAS CITY SOU

67.94

1.39

41.36


 

Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker

Name

Mkt Price

Valuation(%)

Last 12-M Retn(%)

NSC

NORFOLK SOUTHRN

72.85

-11.29

18.9

UNP

UNION PAC CORP

105.35

-7.58

16.68

UPS

UTD PARCEL SRVC

73.53

-14.25

4.18

CSX

CSX CORP

21.02

-16.19

-0.05

FDX

FEDEX CORP

84.31

-26.08

-8.59


 

Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker

Name

Mkt Price

Valuation(%)

Last 12-M Retn(%)

TAM

TAM SA-ADR

19.39

266.68

-17.52

TK

TEEKAY CORP

26.86

119.02

-15.19

GLNG

GOLAR LNG LTD

44.45

60.51

203.83

GOL

GOL LINHAS-ADR

6.67

39.93

-55.5

NM

NAVIOS MARITIME

3.52

29.32

-28.31

 

 

What's Hot--

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Year End Valuation Review

 

The ValuEngine Valuation Model tracks more than 5500 US equities, ADRs, and foreign stock which trade on US exchanges.  The model calculates a level of mispricing or valuation percentage for each equity based on what the stock should be worth if the market were totally rational and efficient--an academic exercise to be sure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between equities, sectors, and industries.

 

It was a very volatile year for the markets, and we essentially ended up right where we started in terms of the level for the S&P 500.  However, our Valuation Model doesn't quite see things that way.  Compare the year start and end figures for the overall universe and the sectors below.

MARKET VALUATION

12/30/10

12/30/11

Stocks Undervalued

37.75%

73.03%

Stocks Overvalued

62.25%

26.97%

Stocks Undervalued by 20%

17.47%

39.95%

Stocks Overvalued by 20%

29.92%

11.68%

sp500

1259.78

1263.02

 
 

SECTOR VALUATION

12/30/10

12/30/11

Aerospace

7.55% overvalued

0.81% overvalued

Auto-Tires-Trucks

13.49% overvalued

15.42% undervalued

Basic Materials

31.91% overvalued

10.28% undervalued

Business Services

7.18% overvalued

4.18% undervalued

Computer and Technology

7.83% overvalued

2.67% overvalued

Construction

6.73% overvalued

9.53% undervalued

Consumer Discretionary

5.48% overvalued

9.80% undervalued

Consumer Staples

11.21% overvalued

5.73% overvalued

Finance

8.75% overvalued

10.11% overvalued

Industrial Products

16.13% overvalued

9.22% overvalued

Medical

2.64% undervalued

10.05% overvalued

Multi-Sector Conglomerates

15.20% overvalued

2.08% undervalued

Oils-Energy

25.82% overvalued

1.52% overvalued

Retail-Wholesale

10.66% overvalued

3.55% overvalued

Transportation

12.26% overvalued

6.07% undervalued

Utilities

7.42% overvalued

9.33% overvalued

sp500

1259.78

1263.02

 

The model adjusts to the underlying earnings figures and the interest rate environment so, despite the similarity in the Index level, we see a radically different valuation picture.  Last December we were under a valuation watch, now we see stocks which are calculated to be fairly undervalued--but not as cheap as they were just a few months ago.
 

Here is a chart tracking undervaluation for the year as well as the various periods where we issued an overvaluation watch/warning.

www.valuengine.com/images/newsletter/wee...

since that last overvaluation watch in late April.  We had some market swings over the Summer, but the figures never really shifted out of what we would consider to be "normal" range--(40%-60%)-- until early August.  Then, you see that as the market really swooned our model switched over to an extremely undervalued situation and then began a fade back toward "normal" from October onward.

 

We will continue to watch and track our valuation metrics so that we may add to our dataset.

Stocks: TNP, TK, GOL, CAR, RYAAY, NAT, UPS, CHRW, KSU, NSC, UNP, CSX, FDX, LFL, GLNG, NM, AMZN