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Steve Hach is the Senior Editor at ValuEngine.com, a Newtown, Pennsylvania-based stock valuation and forecast service. ValuEngine utilizes Ivy League financial research as the basis for its coverage of more than 7000 US, Japanese, and Canadian, and other foreign stocks. Hach utilizes... More
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  • ValuEngine Rates Transports and Looks at Valuation 0 comments
    Dec 30, 2011 1:48 PM | about stocks: TNP, TK, GOL, ZIP, RYAAY, NAT, UPS, CHRW, KSU, NSC, UNP, CSX, FDX, LFL, GLNG, NM, AMZN

    MARKET OVERVIEW

     

     

    Index

    started week

    Thursday Close

    3 day change

    3 day change %

    ytd

    DJIA

    12293.47

    12287

    -6.47

    -0.05%

    5.93%

    NASDAQ

    2613.51

    2613.74

    0.23

    0.01%

    -1.58%

    RUSSELL 2000

    745.61

    744.98

    -0.63

    -0.08%

    -4.93%

    S&P 500

    1265.02

    1263.02

    -2

    -0.16%

    0.28%

     

     

    Summary of VE Stock Universe

    Stocks Undervalued

    73.03%

    Stocks Overvalued

    26.97%

    Stocks Undervalued by 20%

    39.95%

    Stocks Overvalued by 20%

    11.68%

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    SECTOR OVERVIEW

     

    Sector

    Change

    MTD

    YTD

    Valuation

    Last 12-MReturn

    P/E Ratio

    Aerospace

    1.43%

    0.53%

    -1.99%

    0.81% overvalued

    -9.42%

    15.65

    Auto-Tires-Trucks

    1.25%

    -3.21%

    -32.29%

    15.42% undervalued

    24.19%

    22.26

    Basic Materials

    1.37%

    -6.21%

    -24.12%

    10.28% undervalued

    -26.84%

    27.69

    Business Services

    1.02%

    -0.12%

    -6.96%

    4.18% undervalued

    1.67%

    28.29

    Computer and Technology

    0.64%

    -0.11%

    -7.98%

    2.67% overvalued

    -7.40%

    34.89

    Construction

    1.81%

    2.34%

    -19.13%

    9.53% undervalued

    -20.19%

    41.33

    Consumer Discretionary

    1.01%

    0.46%

    -10.87%

    9.80% undervalued

    -7.02%

    22.67

    Consumer Staples

    0.83%

    2.37%

    -11.32%

    5.73% overvalued

    -2.59%

    19.07

    Finance

    0.86%

    1.61%

    -6.82%

    10.11% overvalued

    -7.15%

    20.18

    Industrial Products

    1.12%

    -0.52%

    -11.01%

    9.22% overvalued

    -9.35%

    23.4

    Medical

    1.01%

    0.86%

    -3.39%

    10.05% overvalued

    24.17%

    28.5

    Multi-Sector Conglomerates

    1.13%

    -0.64%

    -13.66%

    2.08% undervalued

    -11.22%

    14.51

    Oils-Energy

    0.91%

    -2.43%

    -16.95%

    1.52% overvalued

    -17.15%

    34.87

    Retail-Wholesale

    0.62%

    0.46%

    -1.49%

    3.55% overvalued

    0.83%

    21.84

    Transportation

    1.05%

    -0.58%

    -13.90%

    6.07% undervalued

    -17.57%

    29.3

    Utilities

    0.69%

    -0.31%

    3.08%

    9.33% overvalued

    2.71%

    24.37
    Sector Talk—Transportation

    Below, we present the latest data on leading Transportation Sector Stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.


     

    Top-Five Transportation Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

    Ticker

    Name

    Mkt Price

    Valuation(%)

    Last 12-M Retn(%)

    TNP

    TSAKOS EGY NAVG

    4.91

    21.72

    -47.71

    TK

    TEEKAY CORP

    26.86

    119.02

    -15.19

    GOL

    GOL LINHAS-ADR

    6.67

    39.93

    -55.5

    ZIP

    ZIPCAR INC

    13.32

    -26.59

    N/A

    RYAAY

    RYANAIR HLDGS

    27.98

    -30.18

    -8.59


     


     

    Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

    Ticker

    Name

    Mkt Price

    Valuation(%)

    Last 12-M Retn(%)

    NAT

    NORDIC AMERICAN

    11.74

    -45.02

    -51.92

    NPNYY

    NIPPON YUSEN KA

    5.01

    8.76

    -43.77

    UPS

    UTD PARCEL SRVC

    73.53

    -14.25

    4.18

    CHRW

    CH ROBINSON WWD

    70.08

    -15.19

    -11.47

    KSU

    KANSAS CITY SOU

    67.94

    1.39

    41.36


     

    Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Composite Score

    Ticker

    Name

    Mkt Price

    Valuation(%)

    Last 12-M Retn(%)

    NSC

    NORFOLK SOUTHRN

    72.85

    -11.29

    18.9

    UNP

    UNION PAC CORP

    105.35

    -7.58

    16.68

    UPS

    UTD PARCEL SRVC

    73.53

    -14.25

    4.18

    CSX

    CSX CORP

    21.02

    -16.19

    -0.05

    FDX

    FEDEX CORP

    84.31

    -26.08

    -8.59


     

    Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Most Overvalued

    Ticker

    Name

    Mkt Price

    Valuation(%)

    Last 12-M Retn(%)

    TAM

    TAM SA-ADR

    19.39

    266.68

    -17.52

    TK

    TEEKAY CORP

    26.86

    119.02

    -15.19

    GLNG

    GOLAR LNG LTD

    44.45

    60.51

    203.83

    GOL

    GOL LINHAS-ADR

    6.67

    39.93

    -55.5

    NM

    NAVIOS MARITIME

    3.52

    29.32

    -28.31

     

     

    What's Hot--

    Special Event for South East U.S. Clients

    ValuEngine's top investment experts are giving a special presentation in your area.  We cordially invite you to join us for:


     

     

    Year End Valuation Review

     

    The ValuEngine Valuation Model tracks more than 5500 US equities, ADRs, and foreign stock which trade on US exchanges.  The model calculates a level of mispricing or valuation percentage for each equity based on what the stock should be worth if the market were totally rational and efficient--an academic exercise to be sure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between equities, sectors, and industries.

     

    It was a very volatile year for the markets, and we essentially ended up right where we started in terms of the level for the S&P 500.  However, our Valuation Model doesn't quite see things that way.  Compare the year start and end figures for the overall universe and the sectors below.

    MARKET VALUATION

    12/30/10

    12/30/11

    Stocks Undervalued

    37.75%

    73.03%

    Stocks Overvalued

    62.25%

    26.97%

    Stocks Undervalued by 20%

    17.47%

    39.95%

    Stocks Overvalued by 20%

    29.92%

    11.68%

    sp500

    1259.78

    1263.02

     
     

    SECTOR VALUATION

    12/30/10

    12/30/11

    Aerospace

    7.55% overvalued

    0.81% overvalued

    Auto-Tires-Trucks

    13.49% overvalued

    15.42% undervalued

    Basic Materials

    31.91% overvalued

    10.28% undervalued

    Business Services

    7.18% overvalued

    4.18% undervalued

    Computer and Technology

    7.83% overvalued

    2.67% overvalued

    Construction

    6.73% overvalued

    9.53% undervalued

    Consumer Discretionary

    5.48% overvalued

    9.80% undervalued

    Consumer Staples

    11.21% overvalued

    5.73% overvalued

    Finance

    8.75% overvalued

    10.11% overvalued

    Industrial Products

    16.13% overvalued

    9.22% overvalued

    Medical

    2.64% undervalued

    10.05% overvalued

    Multi-Sector Conglomerates

    15.20% overvalued

    2.08% undervalued

    Oils-Energy

    25.82% overvalued

    1.52% overvalued

    Retail-Wholesale

    10.66% overvalued

    3.55% overvalued

    Transportation

    12.26% overvalued

    6.07% undervalued

    Utilities

    7.42% overvalued

    9.33% overvalued

    sp500

    1259.78

    1263.02
     

    The model adjusts to the underlying earnings figures and the interest rate environment so, despite the similarity in the Index level, we see a radically different valuation picture.  Last December we were under a valuation watch, now we see stocks which are calculated to be fairly undervalued--but not as cheap as they were just a few months ago.
     

    Here is a chart tracking undervaluation for the year as well as the various periods where we issued an overvaluation watch/warning.

    www.valuengine.com/images/newsletter/wee...

    since that last overvaluation watch in late April.  We had some market swings over the Summer, but the figures never really shifted out of what we would consider to be "normal" range--(40%-60%)-- until early August.  Then, you see that as the market really swooned our model switched over to an extremely undervalued situation and then began a fade back toward "normal" from October onward.

     

    We will continue to watch and track our valuation metrics so that we may add to our dataset.

    Themes: transportation Stocks: TNP, TK, GOL, ZIP, RYAAY, NAT, UPS, CHRW, KSU, NSC, UNP, CSX, FDX, LFL, GLNG, NM, AMZN
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