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Steve Hach is the Senior Editor at ValuEngine.com, a Newtown, Pennsylvania-based stock valuation and forecast service. ValuEngine utilizes Ivy League financial research as the basis for its coverage of more than 7000 US, Japanese, and Canadian, and other foreign stocks. Hach utilizes... More
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  • ValuEngine Top-Five Stocks and Sector, Market, and Historical Universe Valuations 0 comments
    Sep 3, 2010 2:21 PM | about stocks: WTNY, FCH, KBH, TOL, MI, STR, GCI, JASO, TEO, XRTX, CLMT, KCAP, CNU, SSCC, S

     

    VALUENGINE MARKET OVERVIEW

    Summary of VE Stock Universe

    Stocks Undervalued

    72.01%

    Stocks Overvalued

    27.99%

    Stocks Undervalued by 20%

    39.62%

    Stocks Overvalued by 20%

    9.43%

     

    SECTOR OVERVIEW

    Sector

    Change

    MTD

    YTD

    Valuation

    Last 12-MReturn

    P/E Ratio

    Basic Industries

    0.91%

    1.01%

    16.89%

    6.15% undervalued

    39.59%

    24.2

    Capital Goods

    0.85%

    0.95%

    8.28%

    12.62% undervalued

    13.98%

    19.96

    Consumer Durables

    1.51%

    1.58%

    6.13%

    17.65% undervalued

    26.28%

    17.06

    Consumer Non-Durables

    0.89%

    0.95%

    1.84%

    8.86% undervalued

    20.23%

    16.28

    Consumer Services

    1.35%

    1.46%

    1.86%

    16.92% undervalued

    14.05%

    20.15

    Energy

    0.71%

    0.70%

    -3.88%

    5.14% undervalued

    35.46%

    25.56

    Finance

    0.21%

    0.26%

    6.02%

    11.81% undervalued

    6.24%

    17.36

    Health Care

    0.62%

    0.66%

    12.19%

    20.43% undervalued

    3.86%

    19.4

    Public Utilities

    0.10%

    0.11%

    -2.92%

    7.08% undervalued

    14.72%

    18.21

    Technology

    1.07%

    1.17%

    5.43%

    17.69% undervalued

    20.61%

    23.96

    Transportation

    0.97%

    1.01%

    4.54%

    10.32% undervalued

    17.48%

    17.02
     


     

    –UNIVERSE LEADERS

    Below, we present various top-five lists for our stock universe. We filtered the results for liquidity by only including tickers with an average daily volume in excess of 100k shares/day and a market price greater than $2/share.


     

    Top-Five Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

    Ticker

    Name

    Mkt Price

    Valuation(%)

    Last 12-M Retn(%)

    Industry

    WTNY

    WHITNEY HLDG

    7.94

    -19.42

    -5.14

     BANKING

    ZION

    ZIONS BANCORP

    19.71

    23.92

    21.29

     BANKING

    FCH

    FELCOR LODGING

    4.33

    75.83

    16.4

     INVESTMENTS

    KBH

    KB HOME

    11.66

    -47.16

    -29.93

     HOME BUILDING

    TOL

    TOLL BROTHERS

    17.93

    -16.26

    -15.82

     HOME BUILDING


     

    Top-Five Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

    Ticker

    Name

    Mkt Price

    Valuation(%)

    Last 12-M Retn(%)

    Industry

    WTNY

    WHITNEY HLDG

    7.94

    -19.42

    -5.14

     BANKING

    ZION

    ZIONS BANCORP

    19.71

    23.92

    21.29

     BANKING

    FCH

    FELCOR LODGING

    4.33

    75.83

    16.4

     INVESTMENTS

    MI

    MARSHALL&ILSLEY

    6.98

    -28.91

    11.86

     BANKING

    KBH

    KB HOME

    11.66

    -47.16

    -29.93

     HOME BUILDING


     

    Top-Five Stocks--Composite Score

    Ticker

    Name

    Mkt Price

    Valuation(%)

    Last 12-M Retn(%)

    Industry

    STR

    QUESTAR

    16.89

    -42.38

    60.86

     GAS UTILITIES

    GCI

    GANNETT INC

    13.48

    -39.38

    71.94

     COMMUN

    JASO

    JA SOLAR HOLDGS

    6.45

    -45.83

    86.96

     ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

    TEO

    TELECOM ARGENTI

    19.25

    -36.44

    39.59

     TELEPHONE UTILITIES

    XRTX

    XYRATEX LTD

    13.18

    -55.36

    106.26

     OTHER COMPUTERS



     

    Top-Five Stocks--Most Overvalued

    Ticker

    Name

    Mkt Price

    Valuation(%)

    Last 12-M Retn(%)

    Industry

    CLMT

    CALUMET SPECLTY

    18.22

    300

    48.49

     OIL

    KCAP

    KOHLBERG CAPITL

    5.28

    300

    32.66

     INVESTMENTS

    CNU

    CONTINUCARE CRP

    3.34

    300

    19.71

     SERVICES TO MEDICAL PROF

    SSCC

    SMURFIT-STONE

    17.87

    300

    23.53

     FOREST PRODUCTS

    S

    SPRINT NEXTEL

    4.34

    300

    23.3

     TELEPHONE UTILITIES

    --What's HOT
    Universe Valuations
     

    Below, we provide some historical valuation figures for our overall universe so that they may be compared to today's. As you can see from the table and charts, as the S&P has settled into its trading range recently, we have seen some robust top calls by the overvalued by 20% or more metric while the bottom calls are more problematic. We see this phenomenon in the longer term historical studies as well. 


     

    The overvalued by 20% or more figure correlates very closely to tops, so much so that we based our correction warning on it back in April--we issued a valuation watch/warning when the overvaluation by 20% calculation exceeded 27.5%. But, the undervalution figure is not as robust because we can go for long periods with an elevated reading and no break out to the up side.

    Date

    10/12/2007

    5/7/2008

    9/15/2008

    3/6/2009

    1/20/2010

    2/9/2010

    4/26/2010

    7/2/2010

    8/11/2010

    9/3/2010

    Undervalued

    47.93%

    69.32%

    80.29%

    89.89%

    47.71%

    65.23%

    38.54%

    77.44%

    64.61%

    72.01%

    Overvalued

    52.07%

    30.68%

    19.71%

    10.11%

    52.29%

    34.77%

    61.46%

    22.56%

    35.39%

    27.99%

    Undervalued by 20%

    19.01%

    33.39%

    48.28%

    78.49%

    23.76%

    32.83%

    18.00%

    46.70%

    31.61%

    39.62%

    Overvalued by 20%

    22.97%

    11.25%

    6.89%

    6.05%

    26.11%

    14.90%

    33.01%

    8.37%

    11.42%

    9.43%

    SP500

    1554.51

    1,418.26

    1,220.76

    686.39

    1,135.51

    1072.07

    1217.28

    1027.37

    1121.06

    1090.1

     
     

     

     


     

     

     

     

     



    Disclosure: NONE
    Stocks: WTNY, FCH, KBH, TOL, MI, STR, GCI, JASO, TEO, XRTX, CLMT, KCAP, CNU, SSCC, S
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