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ValuEngine Weekly September 17, 2010

|Includes:AAL, APL, ASH, AUQ, BC, BXC, CBT, CEG, COCO, DD, EMN, ENLK, FCX, FedEx Corporation (FDX), FOSL, FSIN, GCI, KBH, KLIC, KS, LPX, MED, MNK, MON, OLED, OSK, PDLI, POT, RTI, SMSC, SSCC, UAUA, UFS, WTNY, ZION

 

 

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September 17, 2010

 

Bonus for Readers
--Free Individual Stock Report for Weekly Newsletter Subscribers

 As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are now offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our  $25.00 Detailed Valuation Reports.  

  This week's free download is our report on FEDEX CORP (NYSE:FDX).  FEDEX CORP announced decent results this week with Q1 profits increasing more than 100%.  The company also raised its yearly earnings forecast.  As has been the case for many shippers, international business is powering profits as high-value items like iPods and other gadgets remain in high demand.  However, overall the company remains hampered by the slow domestic economy and weak business for its domestic truck shipping division. 

  ValuEngine has issued a BUY recommendation for FEDEX CORP. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that FEDEX CORP has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE company size, volatility and price/sales ratio.  In terms of overall composite score, FEDEX CORP is in the top 15% of our universe.

 

Weekly Subscribers can download a FREE Detailed Valuation Report on FEDEX CORP HERE.

If you have not subscribed and want to be able to receive a FREE $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Report, you can subscribe to our Free Weekly Newsletter HERE.

 

ValuEngine Index Overview
Index
Week Open
Thurs. Close
Change
% Change
YTD
DJIA 10458.6 10594.8 136.2 1.30% 1.57%
NASDAQ 2263.8 2303.25 39.45 1.74% 0.39%
RUSSELL 2000 641.4 647.81 6.41 1.00% 3.14%
S&P 500 1113.38 1124.66 11.28 1.01% 0.73%
Click to enlarge
ValuEngine Market Overview
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued
65.61%
Stocks Overvalued
34.39%
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
33.44%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%
11.68%
Click to enlarge

 

ValuEngine Sector Overview
Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12-MReturn P/E Ratio
Energy -0.84% 2.93% -2.32% 0.89% overvalued 24.51% 24.59
Basic Industries -0.01% 3.60% 18.69% 0.12% overvalued 30.42% 23.05
Public Utilities -0.64% 0.68% -2.52% 2.31% undervalued 11.60% 17.96
Transportation -0.32% 4.18% 7.83% 3.00% undervalued 12.16% 18.75
Finance -0.45% 2.26% 9.79% 6.66% undervalued 3.19% 17.91
Consumer Non-Durables -0.28% 2.51% 3.64% 7.32% undervalued 17.71% 16.56
Consumer Services -0.43% 4.28% 5.53% 9.10% undervalued 11.31% 20.63
Capital Goods -0.40% 2.98% 11.39% 9.44% undervalued 8.98% 20.09
Technology -0.13% 4.92% 9.86% 12.46% undervalued 16.75% 23.67
Consumer Durables -0.39% 3.40% 7.81% 14.20% undervalued 20.00% 18.36
Health Care -0.35% 4.20% 15.62% 14.49% undervalued 0.93% 21.18
Click to enlarge

 

 

Sector Talk--Basic Industries

   As you can see from the sector overview above, Basic Industries has been the leading sector for LTM return.  Below, we present various top-five lists for the Basic Industries Sector from our Institutional software package (Pending:VEI).  We used basic liquidity criteria of $2/share and volume of 100,000 shares/day to filter our results. 

Top-Five Basic Industries Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
CVVT CHINA VALVE TEC 8.21 -17.33 23.46
FCX FREEPT MC COP-B 81.73 -3.41 14.23
UFS DOMTAR CORP 64.02 -28.98 64.75
DD DU PONT (EI) DE 43.38 -7.91 33.85
FSIN FUSHI COPPERWLD 7.82 -11 -11.14
Click to enlarge

Top-Five Basic Industries Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
BXC BLUELINX HLDGS 3.39 -35.45 -28.63
LPX LOUISIANA PAC 7.41 -42.56 -4.14
MON MONSANTO CO-NEW 57.27 -25.41 -26.6
DD DU PONT (EI) DE 43.38 -7.91 33.85
FCX FREEPT MC COP-B 81.73 -3.41 14.23
Click to enlarge

Top-Five Basic Industries Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
UFS DOMTAR CORP 64.02 -28.98 64.75
CBT CABOT CORP 31.93 -31.93 39.13
DD DU PONT (EI) DE 43.38 -7.91 33.85
EMN EASTMAN CHEM CO 69.4 -14.75 29.67
ASH ASHLAND INC 48.34 -35.7 11.36
Click to enlarge

Top-Five Basic Industries Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
SSCC SMURFIT-STONE 19.58 300 23.53
POT POTASH SASK 148.38 101.78 58.17
RTI RTI INTL METALS 29.41 100.01 23.47
KS KAPSTONE PAPER 12.32 75.93 49.88
NXG NORTHGATE MNRLS 3.45 61.6 12.38
Click to enlarge

  VE Premium Website Stock Analysis subscribers can find complete valuation, forecast, and ratings data on every individual equity in our universe of more than 7000 equities HERE.

--What's HOT
The ValuEngine Forecast 22 Market Neutral Strategy Newsletter

    For a market neutral strategy with significant volatility-reducing benefits, our newsletter continues to perform remarkably well.  As of today's re-balancing, our Forecast 22 Market Neutral Strategy Newsletter portfolio posted a 2.67% gain versus the S&P 500's 4.2%. Since inception, our market neutral portfolio is up 39.33%. The trailing 12-Month gain is 19.21% while the S&P 500 is up 3.78% for the same time frame. 

  Leading sectors for our long side were Basic Industries and Consumer Services. Health Care was the only sector to post a loss. Big winners for our longs were Fossil, Corinthian, and Freeport McMoran. Our shorts provided a feast or famine situation for the month. The big gainer was Synutra which posted a 32% gain followed by Tech Sector firms Power-One and Zoran. However, gains there were wiped out by losses from Sauer-Danfoss, Biovail, 7 Days Group, and Terex.

  The chart below shows our long-side picks as well as their performance for the month.

Ticker Company Name Entry Price 8-17-10 Exit Price Change %Change Sector
UFS DOMTAR CORP 60.11 64.02 3.91 6.50 BASIC INDUSTRIES
FCX FREEPT MC COP-B 70.63 81.73 11.1 15.72 BASIC INDUSTRIES
OSK OSHKOSH CORP 27.41 26.91 -0.5 -1.82 CAPITAL GOODS
PANL UNIVL DISPLAY 21.11 22.62 1.51 7.15 CAPITAL GOODS
KBH KB HOME 10.29 11.27 0.98 9.52 CONSUMER DURABLES
BC BRUNSWICK CORP 14.66 14.3 -0.36 -2.46 CONSUMER DURABLES
MED MEDIFAST INC 28.14 26.42 -1.72 -6.11 CONSUMER NON_DURABLES
FOSL FOSSIL INC 43.83 51.88 8.05 18.37 CONSUMER NON_DURABLES
COCO CORINTHIAN COL 5.22 6.11 0.89 17.05 CONSUMER SERVICES
GCI GANNETT INC 12.56 13.3 0.74 5.89 CONSUMER SERVICES
APL ATLAS PIPLN PTR 16.88 18.35 1.47 8.71 ENERGY
XTEX CROSSTEX EGY LP 12.52 12.3 -0.22 -1.76 ENERGY
WTNY WHITNEY HLDG 7.78 8.18 0.4 5.14 FINANCE
ZION ZIONS BANCORP 19.95 20.86 0.91 4.56 FINANCE
PDLI PDL BIOPHARMA 5.14 5.2 0.06 1.17 HEALTH CARE
QCOR QUESTCOR PHARMA 10.55 10.31 -0.24 -2.27 HEALTH CARE
UUGRY UNITED UTILITIES GROUP PLC 18.43 18.05 -0.38 -2.06 PUBLIC UTILITIES
CEG CONSTELLATN EGY 29.35 30.65 1.3 4.43 PUBLIC UTILITIES
KLIC KULICKE & SOFFA 5.64 5.5 -0.14 -2.48 TECHNOLOGY
SMSC STANDARD MICROS 19.49 20.16 0.67 3.44 TECHNOLOGY
LCC US AIRWAYS GRP 9.21 9.12 -0.09 -0.98 TRANSPORT
UAUA UAL CORP 21.74 22.22 0.48 2.21 TRANSPORT
  LONG PORTFOLIO     4.09  
Click to enlarge

For more on the VE Forecast 22 Market Neutral Strategy Newsletter Portfolio, Click the Logo Below

 

 

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Disclosure: No Positions
Stocks: FDX, FCX, UFS, DD, FSIN, BXC, LPX, MON, CBT, EMN, ASH, SSCC, POT, RTI, KS, AUQ, OSK, OLED, KBH, BC, MED, FOSL, COCO, GCI, APL, ENLK, WTNY, ZION, PDLI, MNK, CEG, KLIC, SMSC, AAL, UAUA