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LYogi
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The L stands for levitating. ;) You should not take anything I say as fact unless I've referenced the source. I simply speak my mind of what I perceive to be the factors influencing the particular valuation of a company. You have to be the judge for yourself of the weight of truth you place on it.
  • The Fairfax Deal Must Fail: Valuating Blackberry 42 comments
    Oct 8, 2013 12:14 PM | about stocks: BBRY

    Late Friday evening on October 4, 2013 Reuters broke a story that heavyweight US companies were taking a look at making a bid for 'strategic' assets of Blackberry (NASDAQ:BBRY).

    At that moment the game changed.

    For months the media was reporting negative after negative stories on the problems and disappointments surrounding the company.

    Analysts from every stripe were convinced that nobody was interested in BBRY's assets and that Prem Watsa through Fairfax Financial Holdings LTD. was the knight to at least salvage some value for shareholders.

    Over and over again it was reported that there was 'unlikely to be any other bidders for BBRY'.

    Well, the tables are turning.

    There is indeed interest in BBRY and from the initial sounds of it quite a bit.

    These potential strategic bidders have once again turned the focus to what does Blackberry actually own of value. This article will explore the assets of the company and provide reasons why upon examination the Fairfax bid of 4.7B ($9/share) must fail.

    BBRY's ASSETS:

    1. In the Reuter's article breaking the story analysts value the secure messaging system that BBRY has created at between: 3 and 4.5 Billion

    2. The Patent Portfolio valuation has ranged from between 2B and 4B in the past months.

    Some historical perspective here is warranted ~ Nortel's patents on liquidation were estimated to fetch 900M and instead garnered 4.5B.

    Consider the following:

    As you can see from the chart above BBRY's patent filings over the formative years of mobile communications is head and shoulders with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG).

    And these patents offer long-lasting value to a prospective purchaser:

    And their protection will be long-lasting:

    Indeed don't be surprised if a bidding war erupts over BBRY's patent treasures and the valuation skyrockets to 6B or more.

    3. BBRY has 2.6B of cash on hand and no debts.

    4. As of 2000, BBRY owned 1B worth of real estate. That value is likely much higher now that 13 years have elapsed. A valuation today of 1.5B is a conservative estimate.

    5. QNX is thought to be worth between 500-750M with its applications in the automotive industry among others.

    6. BBM, this one is hard to ascribe a value to but solely going on the valuation of WhatsApp (1B) and Skype (8B) and the metrics discussed here I would place the value somewhere in the middle. Again, taking a conservative approach and for the sake of the argument I ascribe a value of 4B to BBM

    7. BES10 with 25,000 contracts at least in the testing phase at enterprises has value to a potential purchaser. Again let's be conservative and estimate the value at 500M.

    BBRY's Liabilities

    1. Much as been made of BBRY's off-balance sheet obligations to suppliers. At last count these obligations have been reduced in half and stand to be renegotiated if necessary. However it stands to reason that these obligations will be met in the next few quarters as BBRY did sell 5.9 million devices in the last quarter.

    To be fair let's apply the conservatism principle and say that there remains 2B of outstanding liabilities/obligations.

    2. Management announced that restructuring costs would be up to 400M to offset the 40% reduction in the workforce.

    However, management also announced that the company would be receiving a 500M tax rebate by August of 2014 to reflect the writedown of 950M in Z10 inventory that was widely reported so this restructuring cost is a wash.

    BBRY's Asset Valuation

    Taking into consideration the foregoing we are left with the following rough valuation as to the assets of the company:

    Note: Due to there being interest from several deep-pocketed companies I have used the higher end of the estimated valuations for the assets as I believe due to the strategic nature of the property there will be competition amongst respective bidders.

    4.5 Billion for secured messaging system

    4B for the patent portfolio (this could go much higher if history is any precedent)

    2.6B in cash

    1.5B in Real Estate Holdings

    4B for BBM

    750M for QNX

    ________________

    Total: 17.35B

    - approx 2B in Liabilities

    = 15.35B Valuation

    or approx 3.3x the Fairfax Bid!

    According to a data compiled by Bloomberg if the Fairfax deal goes through it would represent the lowest ever valuation and revenue multiple recorded for similarly situated North American telecommunications or technology acquisitions.

    CONCLUSION

    The Board of Directors have a fiduciary duty of loyalty and care to their shareholders. The case law has held that this duty of care is heightened when entertaining offers to sell the company. The Board appears to be following through on this duty by allowing interested parties to see the books and be open to other offers.

    However it will be up to the Shareholders to approve or reject the Fairfax offer should it firm up and there be no other higher bids and based on the breakdown above this offer ought to be REJECTED as being inadequate, bordeline insulting, and in essence, a theft of the company at 30 cents on the dollar.

    Disclosure: I am long BBRY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Themes: short-ideas Stocks: BBRY
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Comments (42)
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  • hofjac
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Well done Yogi. Although I must tell you, you have ensured yourself a weeks worth of negative dialog with the naysayers.
    8 Oct 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • wiesje
    , contributor
    Comments (2455) | Send Message
     
    Very Good paper Yogi - shame this is on a blog , so without you having made that link, few would have known about it.

     

    as far as the valuation goes , i think you may well be right, but remember BBRY is a distressed seller, a scandalous position they put them-selves in and as such I take it the assets will go at a discount, nevertheless there is plenty of room on the up-side from where the stock is trading today.

     

    8 Oct 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (2259) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thank You Wiesje.

     

    I did submit it for wider publication but alas here was the response from SA:

     

    Thank you for your recent submission to Seeking Alpha. Your article "The Fairfax Deal Must Fail: Valuating Blackberry" has been declined by our editorial team. Our editors had the following feedback:
    Thank you for your interest (and nice note!); however, valuations of BlackBerry are commonplace these days, with the flurry of recent attention. This doesn't add much new insight to the discussion on the stock, so we'll have to decline.
    8 Oct 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • wiesje
    , contributor
    Comments (2455) | Send Message
     
    amazing if I see what rubbish on BBRY gets the green light
    8 Oct 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Infinity Group
    , contributor
    Comments (584) | Send Message
     
    keep it up - same thing happened with me on Apple.
    its nothing to do with quality, they just get too many articles.
    Publish a similar article on Fairfax and how they are getting a good deal and how they will make money based on the 3.3x you quoted above.

     

    it will get published!
    8 Oct 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Franz Israel
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    Considering all the nonsensical articles on BBRY published by BBRY, this is the one that was rejected? This is beyond my comprehension. This is the best article on Blackberry.
    9 Oct 2013, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (645) | Send Message
     
    Reason why I think this got rejected is because it may have gone against a group's specific agenda. Also, with the garb coming out almost everyday I'd say this one is far more insightful. Maybe you should update this article and re-submit. If they do allow some loose ended articles from getting published may be an updated version of this one give a facelift to this website that in my opinion hosts highly chequered articles.
    11 Feb, 03:47 AM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (2259) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » thanks for your feedback, I will likely brush this up and re-submit it when I'm not busy badgering the Apple longs ;)
    12 Feb, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Zack 800
    , contributor
    Comments (1004) | Send Message
     
    Way to go LYogi!

     

    I like the way you think!
    8 Oct 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • MarcusWright
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    I agree with your calculations of the company's intrinsic value, however, in the case of a leveraged buyout the value of the company is unfortunately subjective to the market trends at the time of purchase (refer to the points wiesje made). So, their actual market value is in the eyes of the buyer, which doesn't always (unfortunately, for us longs) match intrinsic value. In this case so far, Fairfax thinks they're worth $9 / share, even though it should be higher.
    8 Oct 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Franz Israel
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    Then Blackberry should not sell. Or Split the company on its own.
    9 Oct 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Cochise54
    , contributor
    Comments (364) | Send Message
     
    Nice work LYogi. Thanks!
    8 Oct 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • atnmpg
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    Hopefully at least one potential bidder will see it too. Is it somehow highly probable that nobody will bid higher than $9? I know it's a possibility but really??? Nobody???
    8 Oct 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • usajordi
    , contributor
    Comments (207) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations LYogi!
    Great article and I like very much all your postings!
    Incredible that finally we are arriving at the finish line of this marathon!
    The best thing going on now is that there are a good number of topnotch people looking at all the pros and against of making their bids.
    The buyers and sellers representatives are there to give the best advices, to deeply explore all the issues and arrive at conclusions very soon on recommending make the deal or pass.
    Very well managed BBRY could be a gold mine, and a very well respected heavy player will have no problem on turning the company around and will have the time to correct mistakes, get back to basics and relaunch all 10's as there are great but need kiosks with TV's at the distributors where any interested person can find out how to maximize the use of the phones!
    BES10 and QNX should be also great assets and could be milked for many years to come!
    If they finally offer the Android and iOS apps for the BBM, that will result in crystal clear worldwide phone communication possibility for all users, and if they arrive fast at a couple of hundred millions of them, that alone could be a powerful moneymaker that will fill the pockets of the buyers! So the real issue now is who will be ready to buy and quickly write the check.
    One has to be blind if don't see the great potential of BBRY assets!
    Let's hope for the good and maybe soon the nightmare will be over!
    8 Oct 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Cliff Hilton
    , contributor
    Comments (1759) | Send Message
     
    Good stuff LYogi. I really appreciate your patience with BBRY. Few (seven) see the value.
    8 Oct 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Splenosis
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    Great article! Hoping the fairfax deal fails as well..
    8 Oct 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Roll up the RIM
    , contributor
    Comments (220) | Send Message
     
    Confirmation bias yay!
    8 Oct 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • 806313
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
     
    I really appreciate it! Same here, I see the values of BB and hope all the best to the company. I 100% hope it will stand on its own feet.
    8 Oct 2013, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • jmathai2011
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Good article. But does getting a fair deal stand a chance with so much of manipulation by the insiders. What if any are the chances that this board and CEO can be thrown out? SP will be 20% up with just this one news.
    8 Oct 2013, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • Franz Israel
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    CEO should not get a penny if the company is sold for less than 425, then see how the tide turns
    9 Oct 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • jmathai2011
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Lack of unaccountability is unbelievable. They should fire him if BBM release is delayed beyond this weekend.

     

    Actually, what more can you expect when the board promises him a hefty bonus for failure? What a bunch of jokers? How can they not at least set a minimum sale price for him to get his 55 million.
    9 Oct 2013, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • anstin
    , contributor
    Comments (89) | Send Message
     
    You are correct LYogi. Wait & see on Nov 04.
    8 Oct 2013, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Franz Israel
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    The best article written, the best analysis done on Blackberry. You are better than all the analysts out there.
    Blackberry will be sold for not a penny less than $30. If it does, then something is rotten somewhere.
    9 Oct 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • AI2
    , contributor
    Comments (151) | Send Message
     
    I'll add a dose of reality to your valuation.

     

    First off, your valuation of BBM (60M and declining) is insane if you think it would fetch between 3-4.5 Billion. Kik messenger(90M) and Whatsapp (600M) has much more subscribers with only around 30-45 employees. If you walk in either of those company with a 4.5 billion offer, do you think either of them would refuse? Which brings me to my next question. How many employees does it take Blackberry to run BES and BBM once the device division winds down? After the 40% layoff, Blackberry will still have 8000 employees remaining. Judging by how much resources is needed to build and maintain a messenger service on a cross platform basis, that would mean your would have 8000 employees remaining running BES. Does that sound reasonable to you?

     

    If Blackberry's portfolio is worth 2-4 billion, then how much would you value Nokia's where only a fraction of their patents are monetize AND they have 600+ million in patent revenue compared to Blackberry's 0. Nokia's 38500 vs Blackberry's 5000. If Blackberry's patent portfolio is worth 2-4 billion, it would put Nokia's patent portfolio at 15-30 billion (Nokia's current market cap is less than 25 billion), and that's not even considering Nokia's patent strength is a lot higher than Blackberry's. At 6 billion, you are putting the worth of Nokia's portfolio at 45 billion. Be realistic.

     

    You are parroting some really bad analysis and adding a Yogi premium on top of it. Sad part is, you are misleading a lot of investors and providing them with false hope.
    9 Oct 2013, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (2259) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ok, I'll play along but as far as Nokia goes I won't comment as I don't feel it is entirely relevant nor do I know much about their patent portfolio. However for the sake of argument let's take the lower end of consensus estimates of patent worth for BBRY at 2B (instead of the 4B that I attributed the value as in my calculations). So 2B knocked off.

     

    BBM: 60M BBRY users but about to go cross platform. In the first hour it was released there was massive demand (over 1 million downloads) and it was pulled. Due to the superiority of BBM wrt security and quality not to mention familiarity with millions worldwide who have changed to iOS or Android and fairly safe to say it's user base will mushroom once it goes cross-platform. WhatsApp is valued at 1B, Skype sold for 8B. BBM should fall somewhere in between. But for 'reality's' sake let's err on the side of caution and say it is only worth 1B. So we've knocked off 3B from my valuation.

     

    Next: layoffs. We know that it will cost BBRY 400 Million to lay off 40% so fairly safe to estimate it will cost 600 Million to lay off the rest of the company if need be. So now we've knocked off another 600M.

     

    Being uber conservative as you have cautioned investors that I may be misleading I've reduced the valuation for BBRY's assets by 5.6B

     

    This then would leave the valuation at approx 10B or more than TWICE its current valuation.

     

    Any which way you slice it BBRY is a STRONG BUY.

     

    Thanks for bringing a dose of reality to the discussion. Much appreciated. :)
    9 Oct 2013, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • AI2
    , contributor
    Comments (151) | Send Message
     
    I'll correct your math Yogi.

     

    First of all, there is no "consensus" estimate to Blackberry's patent portfolio. Those who are evaluating it have absolutely no clue how to correctly value a patent portfolio. Assigning any value to a patent portfolio that has already been crossed licensed and have 0 enforceable patents is dangerous. As I've pointed out to you before, Motorola patents are essentially worthless as it has 0 enforceable patents. The fact that google paid 12 billion for them is a bad sign, as companies bidding will be a lot more cautious. If you were to be conservative in your estimation, the value at this point should be a lot closer to 0 than 2B.

     

    BBM at 1/10 the subscriber of Whatsapp (and declining) is worth 100 million. Not somewhere between 2 platforms that have much higher install base. When BBM actually releases multiple platforms and actually gains a user base that passes whatsapp (increasing their current install base x10), then you can assign a 1B evaluation. What you're doing is no different than some analyst/BB management. Counting chickens before they hatch. Or double counting for that matter. 4.5 Billion for a secure messaging system and 4B for BBM. I wonder if the readers that actually complemented you on your article bother to check your calculation.

     

    I'm sorry Yogi. You're not be uber conservative. You're being uber unrealistic.
    9 Oct 2013, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (2259) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I wonder who is being unrealistic between us valuing BlackBerry's patents at $0 and BBM at 100M....

     

    Time will tell!

     

    But just to entertain you even further- let's value their patents at $0 and BBM at $100, we still get a valuation approaching 8B!

     

    STRONG BUY
    9 Oct 2013, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • RR3773
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    Love it! So happy to see others get THIS.
    15 Oct 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • RR3773
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    The reason BBM was pulled? The reason $932 million write-down? Do you not see the shareholder robbery? We are potentially on the bursting out seam and you see it as a crack?

     

    Here is a view I have:

     

    In the Q2 report, BlackBerry disclosed that 5.9 million smartphones were delivered to end users in the quarter but only 3.7 million were recognized in revenue. . .

     

    . . .because of the 2.2 million devices recorded in revenue in Q1 but not shipped until Q2. The 2.2 million unit difference comprised primarily BB10 devices.

     

    My question is this:

     

    If Q1 revenue was overstated, and Q2 was understated, as to BB10 device sales; then the street was short-changed into believing Q2 device sales were a dude when in fact BB10 device sales for the 2nd quarter did quite well.

     

    The time frame in "delivery to the end user" also signifies how long it takes for a new BB10 device to be sold AS TO THE NEW BB10 'server' being needed to be installed FIRST. BlackBerry is known to be the business executive phone. Businesses need to install the commercial BB10 'server' before any new BB10 device will work, or be potentially purchased. The 'server' installations account for the delay in individual device sales.

     

    Server installations increased 30% from 19,000 to 25,000 in Q2. It takes time for each corporation to synchronize the new BB10 server. Then the employees purchase their new BB10 device. Make sense?

     

    Why then is $932million in inventory being written down in Q2? Would it not make sense to allow device sales time? I do not see Apple writing down its inventory in a few months of a new software update iPhone. In BlackBerry's case its a whole new OS that requires a new 'server'.

     

    Why would any corporation write-down $1 Billion during the 'launch' period of a new product?

     

    We were told and warned by Blackberry, over and over, that we were "just beginning" the launch of a "whole new operating system". Shareholders were convinced by BlackBerry to allow for "time". We are long term holders. Well, that "time" is now just ripped away from us. And the shares fall 40% with the almost $1Billion write-down pending, then announced?

     

    In Q1 there was a $72million write-down from Venezuela currency controls. We all know that $72million is in a Blackberry bank account in Venezuela. Country currency controls are eventually lifted over time. That revenue will ultimately be reinstated.

     

    I view the accounting write-downs as a potential '100% profit margin' on devices for the new share-owners. This is the rip off to existing shareholders. We are being potentially stolen from before Q3 sales numbers are even out as 25,000 servers are istalled? And the board approved the acceptance of this $9 share offer?

     

    The company then goes private and we never know the profit margins or the pent up device sales numbers currently? As new BB10 'servers' are being installed, at an ever increasing pace? And currency controls are lifted in Venezuela?

     

    The LIE is potentially in the accounting write-down figures.

     

    That amount is almost a BILLION DOLLARS, or about $2.00 per share. That is potentially $20 per share market value if we use a 10xPE. This is potential shareholder "paper accounting" robbery, in my opinion.

     

    Yes, I am angry. Either BBRY lied earlier or the lie is now. Where are the $1Billion inventory of devices? Garbaged? Or being shipped to an end user? Free? Give-aways?

     

    I calculate 7 million phones at $150 cost per each in the write-down. Blackberry should easily be able to sell phones to corporations at $300 each (50% discount). There are 70 million current BlackBerry subscribers. Selling 7 million BB 10 devices to corporations/governments represents only 10% of current subscriber base. It should be easy to recoup the $1Billion cost and a potential $1 Billion profit too!

     

    That's potentially $4 revenue per share!

     

    If BBRY can't sell the 7 million devices in inventory, then NO BUYER would either. Therefore, it is easy to assume the current shareholder is getting ripped off right now by any new buyer of the company's shares AFTER the accounting write-down.

     

    BOTTOM LINE: Why is the company writing-down its new devices when the new BB10 'servers' are not yet in full operation???
    15 Oct 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • AI2
    , contributor
    Comments (151) | Send Message
     
    I didn't say 0. I said closer to 0 than 2 billion. For example, 999 million is closer to 0 than 2 billion.

     

    Secondly, you might want to check your calculation again and explain what's the difference between 4.5 Billion for secured messaging system and 4B for BBM.
    9 Oct 2013, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (2259) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » oh good, so we add back valuation to the 8B that you've whiddled me down to. that's fine by me.

     

    The value of BBRY's messaging system is their secured NOCs.
    http://bit.ly/1grTr1r

     

    So here we still are with the patents being valued somewhere between $0-999Million, BBM at $100M and the stock trading at less than half of where it's tangible assets say it should be.
    9 Oct 2013, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • AI2
    , contributor
    Comments (151) | Send Message
     
    Sorry Yogi. I must have missed your explanation about how BB NOC is worth 4.5 Billion in your article. I tried looking again, but still couldn't find it.
    9 Oct 2013, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (2259) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Implied as Secured Messaging System but apologies for the confusion.
    9 Oct 2013, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • AI2
    , contributor
    Comments (151) | Send Message
     
    Ok. I've reviewed the article, and Yogi, you're going to hate me....

     

    The mere fact that the article is stating that BB still has 3.1 billion in cash should tell you that their estimates are not to date/accurate.

     

    So how much is BB NOC worth? It's hard to evaluate it since there really nothing like it on the market to compare it against. The concern I would have for valuing their NOC so high would be the service is really outdated by today's standards. It's not really equipped for modern day smartphone usage and hence why BB10 are not routed through the service. The remaining usage seems to be in emerging markets where data fees are still high, but how long would you expect that trend to last?

     

    It doesn't mean someone won't buy out the division and have a different use for it, but I have serious doubts about a 4.5 Billion evaluation and calling it "conservative" when the technology is so outdated by today's standards that Blackberry themselves was in the process of phasing it out.
    9 Oct 2013, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • AI2
    , contributor
    Comments (151) | Send Message
     
    I've tried to track down the source of the valuation. It seems:

     

    "Nomura is most bullish, valuing it at between $4.3 billion to $5.7 billion, while Bernstein gives it $1.8 billion and Cannacord ascribes a $1.4 billion value. Some other analysts included BlackBerry’s Network Operations Centre’s in their services unit valuations. Raymond James gave the NOC business an $825 million price tag"

     

    It's hardly a conservative estimate when you take the higher end, and not give an explanation on why your think the business is worth that dollar amount while parroting someone else guess. If you truly believe it's worth that much, I would really like to hear your explanation as 4.5 billion would exceed the entire market cap of the company.
    10 Oct 2013, 02:09 AM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (2259) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A12,

     

    Thanks for weighing in and doing some additional research.

     

    As you can probably tell by now getting an accurate valuation for BBRY is quite difficult and estimates range all over the spectrum.

     

    However, having said that, if one were to ascribe a valuation of $2B for the BBM/NOC system then we are still looking at a significant premium over the current valuation of the company.

     

    Simplifying as much as possible and erring on the side of conservatism we'd get a valuation of something like this:

     

    2.5 B cash
    1.5 B real estate (especially considering that Google and Motorolla are moving into Waterloo)
    2B patents
    2B secured messaging system

     

    =8B.

     

    I'm sticking to my intuition that we will see at least $15/per share when all is said and done.
    11 Oct 2013, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • RR3773
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    Buffet in Waterloo for months; Perma have Buffet? Government pension plans investment is the GOC take over method. Private group? Public money?
    15 Oct 2013, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • wiesje
    , contributor
    Comments (2455) | Send Message
     
    IMO , the price will be min 9$ or 4,5 bio , max 12,50 $ or 6,3 bio and probably 10,50 $ or 5,3 bio

     

    the probable scenario still gives one about 30% return from present levels for a 6 week hold, that's a very good return and difficult to beat by any stock on the exchange today

     

    forget abt BBRY the company , it's over.
    this is the last chance for us to make money out of the stock.
    the company as an investment play is forever gone in 6 weeks, it will end-up being sold on by the one owning it over time or it will breakup now and sold off in bits and pieces.
    so I am with the Author, it's an opportunity to buy, the risk/reward is  attractive.
    9 Oct 2013, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • MarcusWright
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    Mike Lazaridis and Douglas Fregin are supposedly filing for a joint-bid on BBRY:

     

    http://bit.ly/1ec3OEk

     

    What do you guys think of the recent news that the company may consider breaking up in parts, as some companies looking into bidding are only interested in certain parts of it?

     

    http://bit.ly/1ec3MMN

     

    If BBRY is worth more broken up (lets say, $15 / share equivalent) than as a whole (~$9 / share, with Watsa's bid) and a company or consortium of companies buyout BBRY and break up the parts, will retail shareholders see any of that extra gain?
    10 Oct 2013, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • wiesje
    , contributor
    Comments (2455) | Send Message
     
    no Mike unfortunately not, this is what i mentioned over and over, it's not all quality people showing-up, eventually asset stripers will move in on the stock too, but so-what , lets get the stock price up.

     

    we as small private share holders can only hope to get the highest possible price now, we will not benefit from anything later on.

     

    that's why I repeatedly said this is no longer abt the future of BBRY, this is 100% about the stock price.

     

    it should be the BOD obligation to try and obtain the best possible share price for the present share holders, but they will do what is best for them.

     

    we must hope we get the max possible now , have the cash in hand and than join one of the sensible party going after the executives.

     

    this will get real nasty once the company is sold, there are tons of cases being put forward, this is the most scandalous deal ever put together for what the BOD did for action to preserve share holders value, they are all on PW pay-roll and did everything to cushion his losses, outrageous !

     

    but let's first see the best price and get that cash in our accounts it is looking good, 7 is gone, soon 8 will go on our way to 9 ending at 10 $
    i am a happy chappy thus far , is going as planned.
    10 Oct 2013, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • Toastypro
    , contributor
    Comments (398) | Send Message
     
    Yogi this is an excellent piece of work on Blackberry. I would be happy to see $10B valuation at this point in time.

     

    BTW, I knew you had extra Levitating Chi on you. Great job.
    11 Oct 2013, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • RR3773
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    I am pleased to read the truth of what could be if we Canadian corporations were valued as to many USA corporation IPO's and M&As are valued. I am hoping the scam will be revealed to the shareholder's value rather than the buyers value. There is a chance as many a institutions are long. Therefore, something new will surly break. . . Or something dreadfully wrong has occurred. On the brave front we shareholders all vote no.
    15 Oct 2013, 07:31 AM Reply Like
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