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New member ͛ JR: Options Strategiest, Event-Volatility Trader, Trend Analysis, Contrarian and Opportunist
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  • Gold Pullback 3 comments
    Jan 27, 2013 3:21 PM | about stocks: GLD, GDX, GDXJ, UGLD

    Gold technical chart update.

    Looking for a pullback and last test of long trending symmetrical triangle chart pattern. Daily RSI readings have gave us insightful hints as to when Gold has been overbought and oversold. Currently we are at mid-line, however the trend is lower.

    Compute the height from the highest peak (point A in The Measure Rule figure to the right) to the lowest valley in the pattern (NYSE:B) then multiply it by the above "percentage meeting price target." Add it (upward breakouts) or subtract it (downward breakouts) from the breakout price. The breakout price is the point at which price pierces the trendline. The figure shows an upward breakout with target price C.

    Patterns with heavy breakout volume (above the 30-day average) do better.

    Triangles with breakouts within a third of the yearly low perform best.

    Triangles perform best post breakout when they appear at the start of trends.

    Throwbacks and pullbacks hurt post breakout performance.


    (click to enlarge)Gold Pullback, Symmetrical Triangle Chart Pattern

    (click to enlarge)Gold Pullback, Bullish Pennant, Testing 20 and 40 Simple Moving Average (NYSE:<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SMA' title='Symmetry Medical Inc.'>SMA</a>)

    Above Chart
    Monthly bullish triangle is forming, and prices have managed to hold the 20-month simple moving average this week. Historically, the 20 SMA has been a very good support level - outside of the late-2008 correction that managed top hold the 40 SMA. RSI tends to bottom around the 50-level on these corrections - which is close to where it is at present.

    The probabilities favor that this current test of the 20 SMA will be successful. The alternative would be for prices to clear break the 20 SMA and fall very quickly towards the 40 SMA support level at $1470/oz.

    (click to enlarge)Gold Pullback, MACD, Fibonacci retracement .618

    JR @ Trading View https://www.tradingview.com/v/SSD9xEnw/

    Disclosure: I am short GLD, GDX.

    Stocks: GLD, GDX, GDXJ, UGLD
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Comments (3)
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  • Will Ross
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    Excellent charting skills!
    28 Jan 2013, 05:46 AM Reply Like
  • phulkrum
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
    Thx for the Chart, from the looks of it, It had ballooned in Aug of 11 then it deflated in late September the same year causing the pull back. looking backwards at that time frame were there any events that were happening that could have been a psychological tie in for the inflate, at least that you can see?
    30 Jan 2013, 05:23 AM Reply Like
  • Cramer Stock Picks
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    Speculating Fed's QEi and China's stimulus look to be the trigger for the last inflate. That would be my guess. Now we wait for rotation to push this towards 2000+.
    30 Jan 2013, 06:55 PM Reply Like
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