J. M. Manness'  Instablog

J. M. Manness
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To avoid criticism, do nothing, say nothing, be nothing. -Elbert Hubbard I have a Masters degree in Computer Science, and worked for 14 years in development, technical publications and software quality assurance. I have been investing for 20 years. Currently, I do writing, photography, and... More
My company:
delQuindío Products
My blog:
50 Cent Flash Fiction
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50 Cent Flash Fiction - Anthology 1:Twist
  • Another View On Technical Analyisis 0 comments
    Sep 24, 2012 6:53 PM

    As part of his insightful post, Kim Klaiman wrote:

    Market history is filled with moves that defy logic as the charts "go parabolic." Those moves usually have 3 things in common:

    - They go further than one would expect.
    - They never last.
    - They usually end really, really badly.
    This is a bit of a truism. The second point is tautological since "nothing can go up forever" is a given.

    The problem I have with arguments such as this, is that they totally ignore fundamentals. Now I don't mind technical analysis, it has its place. But to rely on it in spite of fundamentals I believe is to ignore the reality that drives the technical.

    As I have said before (baring a major macro economic breakdown) Apple will continue to rise because they are making great widgets (opinion), people are buying them like crazy, and they have a lot of room to grow before their markets are saturated.

    Will there be downturns on the way? You can bet on that! And that is where you technical analysts come in handy. But if you are looking for that Ultimate Top, I suggest you take a two or three year nap (at least).

    I give more analysis on this line in:


    Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

    Additional disclosure: I occasionally play options (both short and long) on Apple, but have no intentions of doing so in the next 72 hours.

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