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Dustin Moore
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Dustin Moore is a researcher and analyst focusing on overlooked and undervalued investments. He enjoys analyzing under-the-radar companies with massive upside potential and those with favorable risk/reward ratios. On Twitter! @dustinrmoore https://twitter.com/dustinrmoore
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  • Hipcricket Q3 Earnings - What I'm Looking For 14 comments
    Jan 6, 2014 10:20 AM | about stocks: HIPPQ

    Hipcricket will report financial results for the third quarter ended November 30, 2013 after market close Tuesday of this week.

    What I'm looking for:

    The quarter ended November 30th includes the Black Friday/early Christmas shopping season. This should lead to significantly higher corresponding marketing revenues Q/Q. Weak holiday marketing spending would obviously be a negative short-term.

    I'm looking for roughly $10 million in revenues as my key number. That would be huge for this small company. It would be far-and-away record setting revenues for Hipcricket (which was set last Q at $7.6M). Anything even near $10 million would be a big catalyst for shares IMO. Ladenburg Thalmann has a higher estimate of $10.25 million for the quarter. This would be in line with the company's yearly growth target of at least 30% annual growth and would demonstrate profitability for the business model.

    I will also be looking at costs. The company should have lowered costs as part of its ongoing cost reduction program. Operating cash flow breakeven revenue number per quarter should be down to around $10 million. So obviously the revenue key revenue number cited above should make breakeven here possible if costs drop as projected.

    Hopefully we can get some insight on the strong/weak holiday marketing spending for the current quarter. It will be a good insight to Q4. Also, any further color on the Google/Mondelez partnership would be nice. I will also be listening for any hint at a need for more cash in the short-term.

    But in the end, I think this quarter comes down to revenues and costs. With a marketcap of less than $70 million, if the company can indeed execute on revenues this quarter and provide positive forward guidance, it will immediately create a great disconnect between Hipcricket's growth and a relatively lagging share price.

    My previous analysis can be found here: seekingalpha.com/instablog/721196-Dustin...-Marketing

    Stocks: HIPPQ
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Comments (14)
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  • Notatrader
    , contributor
    Comments (103) | Send Message
     
    Shareholders are growing impatient. Anything short of $10 million will crush the creditability of new management.
    6 Jan 2014, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Dustin Moore
    , contributor
    Comments (277) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for the comment Noatrader. They set the (very high) bar themselves, so we will see if they can hit it. If they do, it may be off to the races.

     

    I do disagree a bit though. Over $9M will still represent record phenomenal growth y/y, despite being below projections. Further, some seasonal revenue could be delayed by clients and simply realized in Q4.
    6 Jan 2014, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Notatrader
    , contributor
    Comments (103) | Send Message
     
    I own a lot of HIPP, but we will agree to disagree. The company set the bar-if it's too high it is their own doing.

     

    Thanks
    6 Jan 2014, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • warnbeeb
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, Dustin but I don't think you know what you're talking about.
    8 Jan 2014, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Dustin Moore
    , contributor
    Comments (277) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » What do you mean?
    8 Jan 2014, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Notatrader
    , contributor
    Comments (103) | Send Message
     
    And what does $6.4 million do for you? This company never fails to disappoint. NO credibility
    7 Jan 2014, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Dustin Moore
    , contributor
    Comments (277) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Disaster of a quarter..
    7 Jan 2014, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • warnbeeb
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    It has nothing to do with credibility. Ivan Braiker got snowed by the previous management (Arena et al) into selling his company to Augme Technologies. Everything he built in Hippcricket has been ruined.
    Sadly, this company has no future. Mobile ad campaigns are skyrocketing and HIPP had a 14% sales DROP.
    It's a penny stock. Trade it in and out for a few pennies here and there if you want...but it's not an investable vehicle.
    8 Jan 2014, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (280) | Send Message
     
    "strategic alternatives" - sounds like the best course of action now. Wow, what a turn of events, right on the doorstep of having our first great quarter.
    7 Jan 2014, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • william046
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Will the stock move downward ,,it appears to be low already..
    7 Jan 2014, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • warnbeeb
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    What an awful stock. I feel sorry for what shareholders they have.
    8 Jan 2014, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Dustin Moore
    , contributor
    Comments (277) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Not just an awful stock. Awful management.
    40% of the revenue miss was blamed on a data center move...ridiculous. You can't make this stuff up.
    8 Jan 2014, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Tom Shaughnessy
    , contributor
    Comments (1145) | Send Message
     
    Outrageous, horrible management.
    8 Jan 2014, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • rodneyrs
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I agree.
    11 Jan 2014, 01:14 PM Reply Like
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