DoctoRx's  Instablog

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Over 30 years of investing in individual stocks. Extensive business experience with small to mid-size companies, including as CEO. Many hundreds of blog posts on financial and economic matters since 2008. Focus on value with catalysts for upside price action. Background as a physician and... More
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  • Amarin Update 0 comments
    Mar 1, 2013 7:44 AM | about stocks: AMRN

    Amarin's (NASDAQ:AMRN) CEO, "Joe Z" on the chat boards, spoke at a Citi-sponsored conference two days ago and again yesterday after the Q4 earnings release. The two new things I recall hearing yesterday were:

    1. Vascepa is ahead of Lovaza, which his team launched at Reliant, at an equivalent time post-launch.

    2. Amarin is anticipating rapid progress with some major players in moving Vascepa from Tier 3 to Tier 2. There will be no press release if and when that happens, though.

    Also, he refused to go into any detail about Amarin's couponing program.

    In my pharmaceutical career, the marketing people emphasized that on average, a physician needs to see/hear a new brand name 17 times before writing a scrip for the brand. So a new launch takes time.

    Bottom line for me: on track, though I don't know if any "code" was transmitted to the analysts that was adverse. If no new side effects show up for Vascepa, and there are no supply issues, even an adverse FDA decision on NCE status could allow the stock to rise if sales do well, though it would be a negative for sure. How big a negative? Highly uncertain.

    I have established an initial position in this speculative equity. This is a risky stock, in a risky market. I'm not an investment adviser and offer no investment advice. I do think, though, that a stock like AMRN is all about unpredictable future newsflows. There are so many short-sellers and flippers in this, I'm happy to hold it and buy more if it actually pans out. But it's a gamble. Per Dr. Taleb, I think that a diversified portfolio should have a little of that sort of stuff.

    Disclosure: I am long AMRN.

    Stocks: AMRN
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