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DoctoRx
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Over 30 years of investing in individual stocks. Extensive business experience with small to mid-size companies, including as CEO. Many hundreds of blog posts on financial and economic matters since 2008. Focus on value with catalysts for upside price action. Background as a physician and... More
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  • Today's Economic Data Is Less Impressive Than The Stock Market's Reaction 4 comments
    May 3, 2013 12:32 PM

    Pending revisions, the internals of the establishment segment of the BLS employment situation release were actually weak. Per Summary Table B:

    HOURS AND EARNINGS
    ALL EMPLOYEES

     

    Total private

     

    Average weekly hours

    34.534.534.634.4

    Average hourly earnings

    $23.42$23.82$23.83$23.87

    Average weekly earnings

    $807.99$821.79$824.52$821.13

    Index of aggregate weekly hours (2007=100)(3)

    96.397.998.397.9

    Over-the-month percent change

    0.10.50.4-0.4

    Index of aggregate weekly payrolls (2007=100)(4)

    107.6111.2111.7111.5

    Over-the-month percent change

    0.20.70.4-0.2
     

    HOURS AND EARNINGS
    PRODUCTION AND NONSUPERVISORY EMPLOYEES

     

    Total private

     

    Average weekly hours

    33.733.833.833.7

    Average hourly earnings

    $19.72$20.03$20.04$20.06

    Average weekly earnings

    $664.56$677.01$677.35$676.02

    Index of aggregate weekly hours (2002=100)(3)

    103.6105.6105.7105.5

    Over-the-month percent change

    0.10.90.1-0.2

    Index of aggregate weekly payrolls (2002=100)(4)

    136.4141.2141.4141.3

    Over-the-month percent change

    0.31.10.1-0.1
     

    DIFFUSION INDEX(5)
    (Over 1-month span)

     

    Total private (266 industries)

    58.361.756.253.9

    Manufacturing (81 industries)

    54.956.851.944.4

    The index of aggregate weekly hours was weak, down 0.2% month on month. The diffusion index over all industries was near breakeven at 53.9%, and worse, the manufacturing diffusion index was negative at 44.4%.

    Separately, the Census Dept. had a downbeat report today on manufacturing in March. The inventories to shipments ratio expanded to 1.29 from 1.27. This is not a good number. Other data points were weak, as well. Consistent with the uniformly weak five regional Fed manufacturing surveys, this survey, in accordance with the sub-50 manufacturing diffusion data from the BLS survey, raises the question of whether the US entered a manufacturing recession, or borderline recession, recently.

    Getting back to jobs, the Gallup survey of hiring-not hiring has been steady for months, continuing at 2008 (recessionary) levels. So I'd urge just as much caution about a decent but unexciting employment report as about any other real-time data report that is going to be revised and re-revised for some time to come.

    Themes: Economy
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Comments (4)
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  • Attm
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Due to a correction. But I guess it won't be anything big. The underlying economy is recovering. You can see the data are not that bad when sequester has been in play.
    3 May 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • pollyserial
    , contributor
    Comments (1093) | Send Message
     
    Agreed that the internals were weak, but that doesn't get headlines. Does this change your view re: the long bond?

     

    I think that today's news will prompt a thousand 'end of QE?' articles in coming days, leading to a mini great rotation next week. Glad I have recently lightened up on TLT and sold the rest of it first thing this morning; kept a chunk of IEF. Will look at add back over next few weeks, as I do think deflationary forces will remain in play, but there's too much short-term risk in it for me.......moved to 90% cash.
    3 May 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • jfada
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    Read the comments from Jeff Gundlach late Friday reg QE. He has been so right on the direction of bonds
    4 May 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Rigorous
    , contributor
    Comments (153) | Send Message
     
    GDP Real Final Sales:
    2011 2.0%
    2012 2.1%
    2013 1.5% so far

     

    Job growth has slowed down in the first quarter from the average of 2012 as it should have. But the worst you can say is that job growth is moderate. This is what employment looks like without a bubble in the real economy and with crony government fiscal policy.
    5 May 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
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