DoctoRx's  Instablog

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Over 30 years of investing in individual stocks. Extensive business experience with small to mid-size companies, including as CEO. Many hundreds of blog posts on financial and economic matters since 2008. Focus on value with catalysts for upside price action. Background as a physician and... More
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  • Inflation A No-Show Suggests Interest Rates Can Go Lower 0 comments
    Mar 18, 2014 4:23 PM

    Goldilocks lives as CPI and PCE are both up less than 1.2% year on year. Thus investors in maturities far below 10 years have been, according to these government statistics, keeping up with or ahead of general price inflation without adjusting for tax effects. Of course, government statistics are what they are...

    Let's see what the FOMC has to say. My bias continues to be a "ZIRP forever", Japanese-style expectation for the U.S., though with higher inflation as befits our superpower status. Nonetheless, the U.S. is also on a zero population growth track based on fertility data; greater longevity is accounting for population growth right now if my understanding of limited population gains from net immigration are correct. An aging population diminishes resource pressure, looks for smaller homes, and in general does not favor "growthy", inflationary policies.

    Interesting times.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Not investment advice. I am not an investment adviser.

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