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How to compare "The Bird in the Hand" with "The Bird in the Sky" or select dividend-paying stock?

I use a simple equation to compare dividend stocks:
Current yield * (1+Average Dividends Growth Rate) * Average Holding Period * (1-Probability of Dividends Cut) * (1-Probability of Company Liquidation).
The higher is the result - the better is the stock, but double check that risks factors (2 last terms in the equation) are not underestimated.

My average holding period is about 6 years, I stay away from companies that might close doors and monitor dividends cut probability.