Well I might retired in 2014 at age 50+ and hope to have 50 more years of fun on the Earth (can I do a space travel to the Moon in 2060?- let see...). So you can imediatly conclude that I'm a big optimist, and yes indeed.
But being a rational optimist I think that the following obstacles are ahead:
Inflation
1) Inflation is the worst enemy of retiree. Last few years US and some other governments (Japan, which is still 3rd economy as far as I know) printed tons of fiat money. Productivity of these printers were much higher than productivity of economics in developed and even emerging countries, so much more of greenbacks (or whatever color you like for bills) are available now for the unit of product/service in major economy countries than in any previous day of my life (I guess it is even correct to say that in any day after WWII). This situation is reflected in price of gold while long-term interest rates are artificial low (due to Federal Reserve) and savings are historically high (at companies and persons levels). The forthcoming waterfall of fiat money might lead to hyperinflation.
Personal solution: Flexible investing in global equities mostly with DG / HY approach (see seekingalpha.com/instablog/725729-sds-se...) and have 3 year of spending cash reserve.
Related problem: high inflation affects spending cash.
Taxes
2a) Politics makes the rules-and some rules (such as taxes) are in huge flux. Before I came to USA I wasn't able to imagine that US citizens allow politicians play tax games so often. IMO tax rules must be much more simple and much more stable. But when the last time politicians really work for voters?
Personal solution: Live abroad of USA (see 2b below).
Related problem: I don't like to relocate very often and I expect to have some health problems 20+ years from now (do you remember that I'm an optimist 8-)?). Medicine in "Tax-Friendly Places to Retire Abroad" (money.usnews.com/money/blogs/On-Retireme...) isn't as good as in USA.
2b) Well I love California and dream to retire in La Jolla - the place with the best climate in USA (see ggweather.com/camelot.htm), although Silicon Valley's (where I live now) climate is also quite good. Well honestly I cannot afford La Jolla if I retire in 2014, so should I postpone? Unfortunately, California is a retiree's tax nightmare. We pay some of the highest income taxes (state and local sales taxes), real estate is assessed at 100% of cash value and politicians (and voters, BTW: Are only stupid voters allowed to live in Golden State?) make all possible to remove a roof for property taxes (e.g. Mello-Roos, home-owners associations which is hidden double taxation, etc....).
Personal solution: Tax-Friendly US States to Retire.
Related problem: Re-read 2a) - who can guarantee that let's say Florida's politicians will not change local taxes in next 50 years?
Activities
3) Well SA can consume a lot of time 8-) I have some hobbies beyond my current professional activities and hope to have more time for these hobbies. Unfortunately, my wife (didn't I mention that we will retire together) didn't make her mind on retirement activities yet but recognized that kids don't need her so much. Also some of our preferences are different (e.g., I like travel more than my wife).
Personal solution:Expose wife to different activities.
Related small problem: You need time to expose, we'll have time in retirement, so this is not "Chicken and Eggs" type of problems.
28 Dec. 2013