Seeking Alpha

SDS (Seductive ...'s  Instablog

SDS (Seductive Dividend Stocks)
Send Message
Sorry I hide my true identity but I'm a physicist/engineer, native contrarian and idea generator. I am an eclectic dividend investor with motto "In God We Trust, All Others Pay Cash" applied to companies I invest in. I like to read /and read a lot - did you look on my SA photo 8-)? /... More
My blog:
SDS blog in Seeking Alpha
  • Re-Reading "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" By Burton G. Malkiel (27 April 2012) 2 comments
    Apr 28, 2012 8:20 AM

    One of first book on investing I read ~ 15 years ago was "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" by Burton G. Malkiel. Prof. Malkiel is well known proponent of index fund investing. Under this and few other good books influence I invested (and still keep a big chunk of my 401K) in S&P500 index fund. But from 2006 I transformed myself in eclectic dividend investor (see my SA profile).

    I'm reading 2007 edition "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" by Burton G. Malkiel - it seems even he agrees now (or I didn't put attention in the beginning of my investment journey) that dividend deliver 90% of total stocks return in the long run (see chapter 13 of the book). So keeping in mind that I'm biased to dividend investing, let analyze Prof. Malkiel on dividend. He points that grow rates of earnings and dividends (including stocks buybacks in recent years) are very similar and Prof. Malkiel mostly uses earnings (this is probably really better because not all companies pay dividends). Simple observation of 2 diagrams reproduced below (figs 1and 2) with common knowledge that dividends are paid out of earnings do not leads to any surprise: return on cheap stocks (low P/E or high dividend yield) are higher than on expensive stocks and small difference in actual numbers can be IMO neglected.

    (click to enlarge)

    Fig. 1.

    (click to enlarge)

    Fig. 2.

    Prof. Malkiel points about fig.1 (fig. 2 was constructed similar):

    "The diagram was produced by measuring the dividend yield of the broad US stock market (in this case, the Standard & Poor's 500-Stock Index) each quarter since 1926 and then calculating the market's subsequent ten-year total return through the year 2005. The observations were then divided into deciles depending upon the level of the initial dividend yield. In general, the exhibit shows that investors have earned higher total rates of return from the stock market when the initial dividend yield of the market portfolio was relatively high, and relatively low future rates of return when stocks were purchased at low dividend yields."

    Then he comes to strange conclusion:

    "Finally, note that this phenomenon does not work consistently with individual stocks. Investors who simply purchase a portfolio of individual stocks with the highest dividend yields in the market will not earn a particularly high rate of return."

    But each deciles (one tenth) of S&P500 is by definition contains only 50 stocks - quite reasonable number for investor's portfolio (my is more than 2X large). I guess Prof. Malkiel is too biased to index investing.

    I agree with Prof. Malkiel notes related to dividend growth investing:

    "… growth at 15 percent rate means that dividends will double every five years… The catch is that dividend growth does not go on forever, for the simple reason that corporations and industries have life cycles similar to most living things."

    See www.productiveflourishing.com/the-busine.../ for an example of business life cycle. My analysis of David Fish list of companies that increse dividends for several years (fig. 3) shows that dividend growth decline with period of rising dividends.

    (click to enlarge)

    Fig. 3

    I agree with Prof. Malkiel notes related to dividend capturing investing:

    "A good deal of research has also been done on the usefulness of dividend increases as a basis for selecting stocks that will give above-average performance. The argument is that an increase in a stock's dividend is a signal by management that it anticipates strong future earnings. Dividend increases, in fact, are usually an accurate indicator of increases in future earnings. There is also some tendency for a strong price performance to follow the dividend announcement. However, any rise in price resulting from the dividend increase, although perhaps not immediately reflected in the price of stock, is reflected reasonably completely by the end of the announcement month."

    BUt I need to admit that dividend capture is very risky business.

    At the end I'd like to use quote Prof. Malkien cites:

    "In investing money, the amount of interest you want should depend on whether you want to eat well or sleep well./ Kenfield Morley "Some Things I Believe" "

    I believe the dividend investing helps me sleep well.

    The lesson I hope you'll learn from this review: use your own mind and be critical when you read finance books, even an excellent one as "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" just because an author can have own sometimes hidden agenda which is not coincide with your best interest.

Back To SDS (Seductive Dividend Stocks)'s Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (2)
Track new comments
  • Robert Freedland
    , contributor
    Comments (154) | Send Message
     
    When selecting a stock I perhaps think of selecting a car for purchase. Dividend growth is one factor, maybe like the presence of a satellite radio receiver, or the displacement of the engine or the mileage or resale value.

     

    I suppose being an eclectic investor would be best. Using each of these attributes to help define a good investment. Value is fine, but why not have value with momentum. Dividend yield works well, but why not have a company that also grows its bottom line. Stock price performance is terrific but why not also look for growth in free cash flow and a low PEG.

     

    So many things go into defining what might be a good purchase. Of course, there is that moment of purchase when all reason goes out the window and you just have to have those shares.

     

    Thanks for this great article!
    28 Apr 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • SDS (Seductive Dividend Sto...
    , contributor
    Comments (3335) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Robert,

     

    Thank you for comment. I select stocks in my portfolio (http://seekingalpha.co...) but even blind collection of dividend champions performed quite good - see
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Sincerely,
    SDS
    28 Apr 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.