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FullTrader
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Trader and Analyst for years in stocks, futures and options. Trading based primarily, but not only, in technical analysis in strategies for median, short and long term.
  • Possible Scenario for the Market? 0 comments
    Sep 14, 2010 8:45 AM
    Possible Scenario for the Market?
     
    We live today times of uncertainty about which, some people think and argue, that we are going towards a new fall, conforming what is called a W recovery. And others, on the contrary, think that the worse thing already happened.
     
    Perhaps, it is a good moment for to watch in the past and look for if, in some opportunity, we had a similar scene. Scene which could contribute with some light on the next passages of the market. Thus it is as we found in the down trend of the Dow Jones of 1973/74 and its later recovery in 1975/76, similarities that perhaps can help us in this job.
     
     
    We observe from the graph that, the recovery from the minimum of 1974 has its first maximum at 61.8% of the down trend. (one of the Fibonacci relationships). Correcting later 34% from this raise, ending a lateral range resuming the rise.
     
     
     
    Curiously, in the down trend of 2007/08, the recovery that begins in 2009 also reaches 61,8% of the previous down trend. Correcting as well 36% of that raise, entering into a lateral trading.
     
    The similarities of both movements, can take us to think that it is a valid analogy, since which we could extract a viable forecast.
     
    Now, we go to the Standard & Poors 500 and we see that it says to us. It appears here again the similarity of the movement arming with a little more of clarity the last figure. Although the bearish risk does not disappear, we can for the short term, to glimpse the possibility for the market breaks its trading range and turns higher
     
     
     
     
     
     
    Extending the magnifying glass, we observed in the S&P 500 daily chart as we are in a zone of possible definition. We are today testing the 200 days moving average, currently 10,452, that historically serves to divide the bullish scenes of the bears. And at the same time, we are about breaking the zone of 1130 that forms the break line of a possible bullish figure that it would take the S&P to test the maximum of 1220. For then, if it surpasses it, to think about the continuation of the bullish cycle initiated in 2009.
     
    Of course, no one can assure that this scenario became real as it is. But there is a chance. In any case, it's useful to follow the market in the next days and to make decisions. One thing we can't forget this week is that this friday, we have the expiration date for options, indices and futures.
     
    Anyway, the next day will have the truth.


    Disclosure: I
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