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oiletftrader
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I trade oil futures etfs. I use a trading system based on basic technical analysis to achieve gains. I don't rehash news, I don't predict the unpredictable, I don't pretend to be a genius, I try to educate and share observations with other traders, and I do say when and why I make a trade.
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oil etf trader
  • 2X OIL ETFS - Sitting,Waiting, and Anticipating a Move Soon.-TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DEC.6 /11  0 comments
    Dec 6, 2011 7:04 PM | about stocks: USO, UCO, OLO



    Hou.to Dec.6/11 close 6.70

     

     
     
     
    HOU Volume  1.30 M
    HOU  Avg 1 month 2.46M
    HOU Avg 3 month  3.63M
     Volume is on a down trend. Tomorrow's inventories and this week's Euro meetings put traders on hold.

    Oscillators:
    Note: one can interpret a negative divergence as indicated on chart. Money Flow Index is moving sideways . Ultimate Oscillator  is moving sideways.Slow Stochastics (not shown) near oversold levels. Immediate term issues  provide  a ceiling. MACD will be interesting study  and recently crossed southward . Considerable resilience in oil prices . How long will it last is the question

    Keeping an eye on this:




    Market Indicators:
    NYMO   and      10% INDEX: barely move today. (Note how NYMO and 10% Index chart signalled over all market bottom recently ).
                                          
    VIX: 28.13   STILL SIDEWAYS.


     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    Bloomberg's chart of the day is an interesting look at volatility in overall market.
     
     


    NYMO  and 10% Index  pause on move  up.  Since the low NYMO numbers the market has really gone north. Note HOU oscillators have a lot of room to head south if headlines aren't favourable. VIX while high has been steady. Oil prices have remained buoyant despite the mini-capitulation of markets last month.


    Conclusion:
    Traders pause as inventories and Euro developments are awaited.
    Issues pertaining  Iran and  Syrian issues giving oil  support.

    Supporting factors may tremble but haven't yet failed .


    There hasn't been a major overbought or oversold signal for oil in a while.  There was money to be made if you trade very very closely.
    In hindsight I would have liked to have bought HXU when NYMO was very low but was too influenced by European headlines and missed it . Proves to me once again that technicals are more honest than fundamentals or headlines. Will be interesting to see if this overall market optimism has legs and can carry oil. In the meantime I would expect oil to bounce around in a very narrow range. It's seasonal tendency is to take a drop soon. It will take major headlines to power prices further north. Euro outlook is still murky. Emerging market demand will probably soften but needs to be relied on. I expect there will be some movement before week's end.

     Note :UCO and OLO in US move almost exactly with HOU.to.

     If you have any comments or suggestions please leave a comment. Thank you for reading today.

    If you are reading on iPhone you can add a shortcut icon to your homescreen by going to the bottom of your screen, tap the icon of the arrow in a box pointing right, and select  the "add to home screen" option for quick app-like access.

    Buy/Sell:
    2011 Q2
    April 11/11 Buy  HOD $5.18
    April 12/11 Sell  HOD $5.76       +11.20%
     May 3/11  Buy   HOD $5.12
     May 4/11  Sell   HOD $5.40      +5.47%
     May 9/11   Buy   HOU $7.69
    May 10/11 Sell   HOU $8.25      +7.28%


    2011 Q3
    Aug 5/11 Buy HOU $5.61
    Sep 23/11 Buy HOU $4.37


    2011 Q4
    Oct 19/11 Sell HOU $5.30         +6.21%


     Total cumulative percentage gross gain 2011 to date:  27.42%
     Note the net percentage will be less due to trading fees etc


    Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.





    Labels: Canada USO UCO OLO Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Bull Plus HOU.to oil price
     
     
     
    Themes: Canada USO UCO OLO Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Bull Plus HOU.to oil price Stocks: USO, UCO, OLO
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