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oiletftrader
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I trade oil futures etfs. I use a trading system based on basic technical analysis to achieve gains. I don't rehash news, I don't predict the unpredictable, I don't pretend to be a genius, I try to educate and share observations with other traders, and I do say when and why I make a trade.
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oil etf trader
  • 2X OIL ETFS - Technical Analysis . Dec 12/11 0 comments
    Dec 12, 2011 11:31 PM | about stocks: UCO, OLO

    HOU Volume  2.31
    HOU  Avg 1 month 2.31M
    HOU Avg 3 month  3.46M
      Volume is on a down trend. I put on the volume oscillator to show the lack of movement in volume. Notice how volume really picks up near bottoms. Currently this oscillator is telling us we are not at a top or bottom.


    Oscillators:
     Money Flow Index is moving sideways . Ultimate Oscillator  is moving sideways. Slow Stochastics  is moving southward    . Immediate term issues  provide  a ceiling. MACD will be interesting study  and recently crossed southward . Considerable resilience in oil prices seems to be showing some weakness here.


    Note: As I had mentioned a few posts back, one can interpret a negative divergence when comparing Ultimate Oscillator with price  and today we had a downward move. I have circled some some events on the chart to show how recent patterns mimic some previous patterns. While not classic negative divergence, we have had some double top activity while RSI and other oscillators show "lower highs". These are often followed by a considerable sell off. This is not to say it will happen again here as every situation is different but it is worth watching for curiosity's sake to what happens next.

    Market Indicators:
    NYMO   and      10% INDEX both hang about the midline today .  (Note how NYMO and 10% Index chart signalled over all market bottom recently ).
                                          
    VIX: 25.67   Decreasing.
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    Conclusion:
    Euro summit did nothing to give markets confidence.

    Issues pertaining to Iran and  Syrian issues giving oil  support.
     
    Supporting factors may tremble but haven't yet failed .
     

    There hasn't been a major overbought or oversold signal for oil in a while.  There was money to be made if you trade very very closely.
    IIn the meantime I would expect oil to bounce around in a very narrow range. It's seasonal tendency is to take a drop soon. It will take major headlines to power prices further north. As I said previously  the current state of price immobility is not in the nature of these volatile funds. We have had  some movement .Will have to see if today is the start of move.
     
     Note :UCO and OLO in US move almost exactly with HOU.to.

     If you have any comments, questions, or suggestions please leave a comment. Thank you for reading today.
     
    If you are reading on iPhone you can add a shortcut icon to your homescreen by going to the bottom of your screen, tap the icon of the arrow in a box pointing right, and select  the "add to home screen" option for quick app-like access.
     
    Buy/Sell:
    2011 Q2
    April 11/11 Buy  HOD $5.18
    April 12/11 Sell  HOD $5.76       +11.20%
     May 3/11  Buy   HOD $5.12
     May 4/11  Sell   HOD $5.40      +5.47%
     May 9/11   Buy   HOU $7.69
    May 10/11 Sell   HOU $8.25      +7.28%

    2011 Q3
    Aug 5/11 Buy HOU $5.61
    Sep 23/11 Buy HOU $4.37

    2011 Q4
    Oct 19/11 Sell HOU $5.30         +6.21%

     Total cumulative percentage gross gain 2011 to date:  27.42%
     Note the net percentage will be less due to trading fees etc

    Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

     
     
    Themes: Canada USO UCO OLO Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Bull Plus HOU.to oil price Stocks: UCO, OLO
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